Supplementary information is available in the online version of the paper. The following are available online at
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/6/1167/s1. Figure S1: Future emission pathways analyzed in this example. The black vertical line represents the range of conditional and unconditional INDC pledges in 2030; thin lines in different colors show the selected emission pathways clustered into the six groups. The range of the 1.5 °C and 2 °C pathways are plotted for reference in grey and orange shaded areas, respectively [
4,
8,
9]. The estimates of current warming above the pre-industrial level (ΔT) for each scenario group are labelled on the right (uncertainty range of 33–66% and median in brackets). Figure S2: Time series of global mean annual temperature changes relative to the baseline climatology of the pre-industrial (1861–1900), as derived from individual GCMs under RCP8.5 (thin line in different colors). Multi-model ensemble with 21 year running mean (black bold line and shade) is also shown on the graph. The horizontal dashed lines indicate a given warming target. Figure S3: Median years projected by the 14 CMIP5 models for three global warming targets (
, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Table S2: Details of eight subregions in China [
10]. Figure S4: Observed (blue line) and simulated (black line and shade, multi-model median and interquartile range, respectively) time series of three extreme precipitation indices from 1961 to 2005. linear trends of observation (dotted line in red) and multi-model median (dotted line in yellow) are shown in the same graph. Yellow cross denotes the linear trend passed the 95% confidence level. Figure S5: Spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices for Rx5day (unit: days), SDII (unit: mm day
−1), and R25 (unit: days) during the period of present (1985–2005). Column 1: observation; Column 2: MME; Column 3: bias (model ensemble simulation minus observation). Figure S6: Regional average differences among different scenarios in the annual Rx5day in China and its eight subregions, based on the multi-model mean ensemble. Boxes (Whiskers) indicate the 25th and 75th percentiles (maximum and minimum) of 14 climate models, and the horizontal lines represent the multi-model median. Scenarios are the same as
Figure 5, with corresponding colors. The differences between different sets of scenarios are labelled on the x-axis. The first three bars show differences for each scenario (1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and INDC-pledge) relative to the present-day baseline scenario, and the last two bars show differences between the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios and INDC scenario relative to the 2.0 °C scenario, as labelled. Eight subregions (labelled on the top left corner) are defined in Text S4. Figure S7: Corresponds to Figure S6, but for R25. The national average of R25 (the central sub-figure), does not include NWC. Figure S8: Corresponds to Figure S6, but for SDII. Figure S9: Frequency distributions of extreme precipitation indices Rx5day over China and its eight subregions. Black lines indicate the results during 1985–2005. Green, blue, and red lines indicate the results during the 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and
warming periods, respectively. The dashed lines indicate the 5% extreme values for the baseline period 1985–2005. Risk ratios (RRs) for three scenarios labeled on the top-right (including medians and interquartile ranges). Figure S10: Corresponds to Figure S9, but for R25. Zero values of R25 are omitted. Figure S11: Corresponds to Figure S9, but for SDII. Figure S12: Spatial distribution of the intermodel coefficient of variations of three extreme precipitation indices simulated by the 14 CMIP5 models for scenarios of present, 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and INDC-pledge. Figure S13: Three extreme precipitation indices over China (regional average) simulated by 14 individual CMIP5 models (in different color lines), with corresponding global mean warming. Figure S14: Multi-model ensemble areal exposure to heavy rainfall of different return values (RVs). Corresponds to
Figure 7 but for areal exposure. Corresponds to this figure; calculation results of individual models refer to Figures S17 and S18. Figure S15: Population exposure to heavy precipitation events of 10 year RV at corresponding warming levels over Asia and eight subregions (labelled in top left corner), based on results of individual models (line in different colors). Figure S16: Corresponds to Figure S15, but for population exposure to heavy precipitation events of 20 year RV. Figure S17: Areal exposure to heavy precipitation events of 10 year RV at corresponding warming levels over Asia and eight subregions (labelled in top left corner), based on results of individual models (line in different colors). Figure S18: Corresponds to Figure S17 but for population precipitation events of 20 year RV. Figure S19: Corresponds to
Figure 8 but for areal exposure. Table S1: Details of the 14 CMIP5 global climate models used in this research.