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Design Flood Estimation: Exploring the Potentials and Limitations of Two Alternative Approaches

1
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden
2
Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Villavägen 16, 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden
3
Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, TU Vienna, Karlsplatz 13/222, 1040 Vienna, Austria
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(4), 729; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040729
Received: 22 February 2019 / Revised: 19 March 2019 / Accepted: 4 April 2019 / Published: 9 April 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Future Challenges in Flood Defence Design and Management)
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Abstract

The design of flood defence structures requires the estimation of flood water levels corresponding to a given probability of exceedance, or return period. In river flood management, this estimation is often done by statistically analysing the frequency of flood discharge peaks. This typically requires three main steps. First, direct measurements of annual maximum water levels at a river cross-section are converted into annual maximum flows by using a rating curve. Second, a probability distribution function is fitted to these annual maximum flows to derive the design peak flow corresponding to a given return period. Third, the design peak flow is used as input to a hydraulic model to derive the corresponding design flood level. Each of these three steps is associated with significant uncertainty that affects the accuracy of estimated design flood levels. Here, we propose a simulation framework to compare this common approach (based on the frequency analysis of annual maximum flows) with an alternative approach based on the frequency analysis of annual maximum water levels. The rationale behind this study is that high water levels are directly measured, and they often come along with less uncertainty than river flows. While this alternative approach is common for storm surge and coastal flooding, the potential of this approach in the context of river flooding has not been sufficiently explored. Our framework is based on the generation of synthetic data to perform a numerical experiment and compare the accuracy and precision of estimated design flood levels based on either annual maximum river flows (common approach) or annual maximum water levels (alternative approach). View Full-Text
Keywords: flood defence; design floods; peak levels; peak flows; uncertainty flood defence; design floods; peak levels; peak flows; uncertainty
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Okoli, K.; Breinl, K.; Mazzoleni, M.; Di Baldassarre, G. Design Flood Estimation: Exploring the Potentials and Limitations of Two Alternative Approaches. Water 2019, 11, 729.

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