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Recommendations for Improving Integration in National End-to-End Flood Forecasting Systems: An Overview of the FFIR (Flooding From Intense Rainfall) Programme

1
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK
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School of Environmental Sciences, University of Hull, Hull HU6 7RX, UK
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Met Office@Reading, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK
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School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK
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Centre for Water Systems, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
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Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AB, UK
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School of Geography Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK
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School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1RL, UK
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Current address: LMD/IPSL, Département de Géosciences, ENS, PSL Research University, Ecole Polytechnique, Université Paris Saclay, Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, CNRS, Paris, France.
Current address: Hull City Council, Hull HU1 2AA, UK.
§
Current address: Météo France/CNRS, CNRM-GAME URA 1357, CEN, 38400 St. Martin d’Hères, France.
Current address: School of Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK.
Current address: College of Engineering, Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK.
**
Current address: Fathom, Engine Shed, Station Approach, Bristol BS1 6QH, UK.
Water 2019, 11(4), 725; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040725
Received: 13 March 2019 / Revised: 29 March 2019 / Accepted: 2 April 2019 / Published: 8 April 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flash Floods in Urban Areas)
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Abstract

Recent surface-water and flash floods have caused millions of pounds worth of damage in the UK. These events form rapidly and are difficult to predict due to their short-lived and localised nature. The interdisciplinary Flooding From Intense Rainfall (FFIR) programme investigated the feasibility of enhancing the integration of an end-to-end forecasting system for flash and surface-water floods to help increase the lead time for warnings for these events. Here we propose developments to the integration of an operational end-to-end forecasting system based on the findings of the FFIR programme. The suggested developments include methods to improve radar-derived rainfall rates and understanding of the uncertainty in the position of intense rainfall in weather forecasts; the addition of hydraulic modelling components; and novel education techniques to help lead to effective dissemination of flood warnings. We make recommendations for future advances such as research into the propagation of uncertainty throughout the forecast chain. We further propose the creation of closer bonds to the end users to allow for an improved, integrated, end-to-end forecasting system that is easily accessible for users and end users alike, and will ultimately help mitigate the impacts of flooding from intense rainfall by informed and timely action. View Full-Text
Keywords: flooding; intense rainfall; end-to-end forecasting; public outreach; radar; hydraulic modelling; numerical weather prediction; data assimilation flooding; intense rainfall; end-to-end forecasting; public outreach; radar; hydraulic modelling; numerical weather prediction; data assimilation
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Flack, D.L.A.; Skinner, C.J.; Hawkness-Smith, L.; O’Donnell, G.; Thompson, R.J.; Waller, J.A.; Chen, A.S.; Moloney, J.; Largeron, C.; Xia, X.; Blenkinsop, S.; Champion, A.J.; Perks, M.T.; Quinn, N.; Speight, L.J. Recommendations for Improving Integration in National End-to-End Flood Forecasting Systems: An Overview of the FFIR (Flooding From Intense Rainfall) Programme. Water 2019, 11, 725.

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