Next Article in Journal
The Exact Groundwater Divide on Water Table between Two Rivers: A Fundamental Model Investigation
Previous Article in Journal
Deep Flow Variability Offshore South-West Svalbard (Fram Strait)
Article Menu
Issue 4 (April) cover image

Export Article

Open AccessArticle

Can Land Cover Changes Mitigate Large Floods? A Reflection Based on Partial Least Squares-Path Modeling

1
Centro de Investigação e Tecnologias Agroambientais e Biológicas, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Ap 1013, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal
2
Centro de Química de Vila Real, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Ap 1013, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(4), 684; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040684
Received: 7 March 2019 / Revised: 25 March 2019 / Accepted: 29 March 2019 / Published: 2 April 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
  |  
PDF [2354 KB, uploaded 18 April 2019]
  |     |  

Abstract

Common approaches to large flood management are Natural Water Retention Measures and detention basins. In this study, a Partial Least Squares-Path Model (PLS-PM) was defined to set up a relationship between dam wall heights and biophysical parameters, in critical flood risk zones of continental Portugal. The purpose was to verify if the heights responded to changes in the biophysical variables, and in those cases to forecast landscape changes capable to reduce the heights towards sustainable values (e.g., <8 m). The biophysical parameters comprised a diversity of watershed characteristics, such as land use and geology, surface runoff, climate indicators and the dam heights. The results have shown that terrain slope (w > 0.5), rainfall (w > 0.4) and sedimentary rocks (w > 0.5) are among the most important variables in the model. Changes in these parameters would trigger visible changes in the dam wall height, but they are not easily or rapidly modified by human activity. On the other hand, the parameters forest occupation and runoff coefficient seem to play a less prominent role in the model (w < 0.1), even though they can be significantly modified by human intervention. Consequently, in a scenario of land cover change where forest occupation is increased by 30% and impermeable surfaces are decreased by 30%, interferences in the dam heights were small. These results open a discussion about the feasibility to mitigate large floods using non-structural measures such as reforestation. View Full-Text
Keywords: flood risk attenuation; PLS-SEM; detention basin; mitigation strategies; landscape change flood risk attenuation; PLS-SEM; detention basin; mitigation strategies; landscape change
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).

Supplementary materials

SciFeed

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Patrícia Salgado Terêncio, D.; Filipe Sanches Fernandes, L.; Manuel Vitor Cortes, R.; Paulo Moura, J.; António Leal Pacheco, F. Can Land Cover Changes Mitigate Large Floods? A Reflection Based on Partial Least Squares-Path Modeling. Water 2019, 11, 684.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Water EISSN 2073-4441 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top