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Risk Assessment and Decision-Making Based on Mean-CVaR-Entropy for Flood Control Operation of Large Scale Reservoirs

College of Hydropower & Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
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Water 2019, 11(4), 649; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040649
Received: 11 January 2019 / Revised: 8 March 2019 / Accepted: 26 March 2019 / Published: 28 March 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Water Resources Management and Governance)
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Abstract

The risk inevitably exists in the process of flood control operation and decision-making of reservoir group, due to the hydrologic and hydraulic uncertain factors. In this study different stochastic simulation methods were applied to simulate these uncertainties in multi-reservoir flood control operation, and the risk caused by different uncertainties was evaluated from the mean value, extreme value and discrete degree of reservoir occupied storage capacity under uncertain conditions. In order to solve the conflict between risk assessment indexes and evaluate the comprehensive risk of different reservoirs in flood control operation schemes, the subjective weight and objective weight were used to construct the comprehensive risk assessment index, and the improved Mahalanobis distance TOPSIS method was used to select the optimal flood control operation scheme. The proposed method was applied to the flood control operation system in the mainstream and its tributaries of upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, and 14 cascade reservoirs were selected as a case study. The results indicate that proposed method can evaluate the risk of multi-reservoir flood control operation from all perspectives and provide a new method for multi-criteria decision-making of reservoir flood control operation, and it breaks the limitation of the traditional risk analysis method which only evaluated by risk rate and cannot evaluate the risk of the multi-reservoir flood control operation system. View Full-Text
Keywords: multiple uncertainties; conditional value at risk (CVaR); entropy; multi-criteria decision making; multi-reservoir flood control operation multiple uncertainties; conditional value at risk (CVaR); entropy; multi-criteria decision making; multi-reservoir flood control operation
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).

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Wang, Q.; Zhou, J.; Huang, K.; Dai, L.; Zha, G.; Chen, L.; Qin, H. Risk Assessment and Decision-Making Based on Mean-CVaR-Entropy for Flood Control Operation of Large Scale Reservoirs. Water 2019, 11, 649.

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