Assessment of the Decadal Impact of Wildfire on Water Quality in Forested Catchments
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- Lack of studies showing >5 years post-wildfire impact on WQ;
- lack of studies with adequate pre- and post-wildfire data;
- past studies predominantly use least-square regression models for change detection without accounting for auto-correlation in the data, and therefore hypothesis testing is erroneous;
- past studies rely on simple discharge-WQ models to detect change due to wildfire.
- Assess the medium-term impacts of wildfire on WQ in the forest catchments around Sydney based on a 10 years pre-wildfire and 10 years post-wildfire dataset;
- present an approach using LMM to detect change based on sparse (as compared to discharge) WQ observations to address the shortcomings identified previously.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Wildfire Severity
2.3. Catchment Terrain
2.4. Change Detection Method
2.5. Assessment of Model Quality
3. Results
3.1. Exploratory Data Analysis
3.2. Linear Mixed Modelling
4. Discussion and Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Study | Description | Pre-Wildfire Data/Post-Wildfire Data | Method 1 | Limitation |
---|---|---|---|---|
Lane, Sheridan and Noske [7] | Severe wildfire burnt over 1 million ha of forested land in Australia | 10 years/2 years post-wildfire | ANCOVA (with control) 2 | Long term impact were hard to compare due to the high variations in climate and the effect of logging. |
Bladon, Silins, Wagner, Stone, Emelko, Mendoza, Devito and Boon [19] | The effect of wildfire on post-wildfire nitrogen concentration with 3 burnt catchments and 2 unburnt catchments | NA/3 years | ANCOVA (with control) | Lack of pre-wildfire WQ data and there is a shortage in assessing the initial wildfire effect on WQ and recovery of the catchments. |
Mast and Clow D.W [28] | Post-wildfire WQ change after a wildfire in Glacier National Park, USA | 5 years/4 years | Compare average concentration | No control (unburnt) catchment studed. Result effected by snow melt event (first flow released during long period of time). |
Townsend and Douglas [12] | The effect of a wildfire on stream WQ and catchment water yield in a tropical savanna (North Australia) excluded from wildfire for 10 years | 3 years/10th year post-wildfire | ANCOVA (No control) | Only the WQ 10 years post-wildfire was described, no earlier observation was compared with pre-wildfire data. |
Malmon, et al. [29] | Sediment change post-wildfire in New Mexico | 2 years/3 years | ANCOVA (No control) | Only 2 years pre-wildfire data was used in the study. |
Kunze and Stednick [30] | Sediment change post-wildfire in 2 burnt catchments in Colorada, USA. | NA/3 years | ANCOVA (with control) | No available pre-wildfire data. First year post-wildfire, WQ and quantity data were collected only after events. |
Oliver, Reuter, Heyvaert and Dahlgren [20] | Analyisis the WQ change post a severe wildfire in lake Tahoe basin, USA | 10 years/2 years | ANCOVA | Pre-wildfire sample collected monthly and during events, no information on daily or annual discharge. |
Hauer and Spencer [31] | Phosphorus and nitrogen concentration change after wildfire in Columbia | NA/5 years | Compare average concentration | Lack of pre-wildfire data Limited data were collected at some sites due to funding limit. |
Catchment | Area (km2) | % Burnt | % Grass Land | % Forest | % Urban | Annual Rainfall (mm) | Mean Flow (ML/day) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C1 | 719 | 0 | 9 | 90 | 0 | 932 | 3,445,519 |
C2 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 14 | 1263 | 341,462 |
C3 | 1447 | 0 | 25 | 73 | 1 | 886 | 2,968,759 |
B0 | 436 | 57 | 12 | 86 | 1 | 857 | 576,706 |
B1 | 104 | 100 | 2 | 97 | 0 | 824 | 137,954 |
B2 | 88 | 83 | 4 | 95 | 0 | 1182 | 420,889 |
B3 | 56 | 79 | 29 | 69 | 1 | 694 | 240,910 |
Flow (ML/day) | TSS (mg/L) | TN (mg/L) | TP (mg/L) | Available Data | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Catchment | Pre/Post-wildfire | Min | Max | Median | Min | Max | Median | Min | Max | Median | Min | Max | Median | |
C1 | pre | 0.88 | 65,000 | 181.51 | 0.5 | 3829 | 1.00 | 0.03 | 7.52 | 0.20 | 0.001 | 2.42 | 0.01 | 244 |
post | 0.23 | 16,673.89 | 908.45 | 0.5 | 532 | 4.00 | 0.005 | 2.25 | 0.31 | 0.003 | 0.34 | 0.02 | 536 * | |
C2 | pre | 5.66 | 6238.66 | 31.51 | 0.5 | 1316 | 3.00 | 0.2 | 15.8 | 1.13 | 0.001 | 1.5 | 0.16 | 220 |
post | 1.736 | 2202.96 | 87.48 | 0.5 | 536 | 6.00 | 0.005 | 2.08 | 0.36 | 0.002 | 0.39 | 0.01 | 284 | |
C3 | pre | 11.11 | 101,778.8 | 191.10 | 0.5 | 2807 | 1.00 | 0.06 | 7.84 | 0.18 | 0.001 | 0.92 | 0.01 | 213 |
post | 3.28 | 8879.39 | 646.18 | 0.5 | 2149 | 5.00 | 0.05 | 13.2 | 0.30 | 0.002 | 1.92 | 0.01 | 331 | |
B0 | pre | 0.54 | 2.39 | 0.62 | 0.5 | 15110 | 1.00 | 0.05 | 6.3 | 0.32 | 0.001 | 0.53 | 0.02 | 288 |
post | 0.53 | 0.99 | 0.56 | 0.5 | 1998 | 7.00 | 0.17 | 11.8 | 0.42 | 0.003 | 2.3 | 0.02 | 126 | |
B1 | pre | 1.57 | 6828.59 | 6.77 | 0.5 | 97 | 1.00 | 0.005 | 9.4 | 0.10 | 0.001 | 0.26 | 0.004 | 218 |
post | 0.34 | 1126.86 | 5.48 | 0.5 | 3950 | 1.00 | 0.05 | 21.2 | 0.20 | 0.003 | 2.45 | 0.005 | 69 * | |
B2 | pre | 3.43 | 7491.3 | 21.80 | 1 | 149 | 1.00 | 0.03 | 0.79 | 0.16 | 0.001 | 0.17 | 0.009 | 157 |
post | 1.54 | 4067 | 55.77 | 0.5 | 35 | 1.25 | 0.005 | 0.95 | 0.17 | 0.001 | 0.06 | 0.008 | 381 | |
B3 | pre | 0 | 14,299.22 | 9.565 | 0.5 | 803 | 4.0 | 0.05 | 6.8 | 0.42 | 0.001 | 0.73 | 0.01 | 233 |
post | 0 | 1184.46 | 32.29 | 0.5 | 496 | 7.0 | 0.005 | 2.65 | 0.44 | 0.003 | 0.5 | 0.02 | 351 |
Catchment | Pre-Wildfire | 1–5 years Post-Wildfire | 6–10 years Post-Wildfire |
---|---|---|---|
C1 | 912.79 | 796.50 | 1111.44 |
C2 | 1214.06 | 1080.18 | 1556.01 |
C3 | 851.94 | 757.99 | 1091.89 |
B0 | 903.51 | 697.83 | 914.69 |
B1 | 869.25 | 671.38 | 880.01 |
B2 | 1246.38 | 962.65 | 1261.80 |
B3 | 670.72 | 592.18 | 849.14 |
TSS | TN | TP | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Catchment | Mean SSPE | ME | RMSE | Lin’s CCC | Mean SSPE | ME | RMSE | Lin’s CCC | Mean SSPE | ME | RMSE | Lin’s CCC |
C1 | 0.96 | −0.03 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.96 | −0.03 | 0.43 | 0.85 | 0.96 | −0.04 | 0.61 | 0.83 |
C2 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 1.12 | 0.76 | 0.97 | 0.01 | 0.59 | 0.81 | 1.03 | 0.00 | 0.87 | 0.84 |
C3 | 0.99 | −0.03 | 0.97 | 0.76 | 1.03 | −0.02 | 0.55 | 0.78 | 0.99 | −0.01 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
B0 | 0.98 | −0.01 | 1.04 | 0.81 | 0.96 | −0.01 | 0.51 | 0.73 | 0.90 | −0.01 | 0.69 | 0.78 |
B1 | 0.98 | −0.01 | 0.89 | 0.74 | 0.97 | −0.01 | 0.87 | 0.71 | 0.97 | 0.00 | 0.84 | 0.70 |
B2 | 1.00 | 0.01 | 0.73 | 0.65 | 1.05 | −0.01 | 0.48 | 0.74 | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.70 |
B3 | 1.00 | −0.03 | 0.93 | 0.77 | 0.96 | −0.03 | 0.43 | 0.77 | 0.94 | −0.01 | 0.53 | 0.81 |
TSS | Log Flow | Event Direction | Event Distance | DF50 | DF75 | DF90 | DF95 | DF99 | Wildfire |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C1 | |||||||||
C2 | |||||||||
C3 | |||||||||
B0 | |||||||||
B1 | |||||||||
B2 | |||||||||
B3 |
TN | Log Flow | Event Direction | Event Distance | DF50 | DF75 | DF90 | DF95 | DF99 | Wildfire |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C1 | |||||||||
C2 | |||||||||
C3 | |||||||||
B0 | |||||||||
B1 | |||||||||
B2 | |||||||||
B3 |
TP | Log Flow | Event Direction | Event Distance | DF50 | DF75 | DF90 | DF95 | DF99 | Wildfire |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C1 | |||||||||
C2 | |||||||||
C3 | |||||||||
B0 | |||||||||
B1 | |||||||||
B2 | |||||||||
B3 |
Catchment | TSS | TN | TP |
---|---|---|---|
C1 | X | X | X |
C2 | X | 0.37 | 0.1 |
C3 | 1.46 | X | X |
B0 | 3.32 | 1.35 | X |
B1 | 1.84 | 2.88 | 2.45 |
B2 | X | 0.7 | 1.13 |
B3 | 1.32 | X | X |
Average for control *,1 | 1.23 | 1 | 1 |
Average for burned * | 1.87 | 1.48 | 1.40 |
Net change (burnt-control) | 0.64 | 0.48 | 0.40 |
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Yu, M.; Bishop, T.F.A.; Van Ogtrop, F.F. Assessment of the Decadal Impact of Wildfire on Water Quality in Forested Catchments. Water 2019, 11, 533. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11030533
Yu M, Bishop TFA, Van Ogtrop FF. Assessment of the Decadal Impact of Wildfire on Water Quality in Forested Catchments. Water. 2019; 11(3):533. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11030533
Chicago/Turabian StyleYu, Mengran, Thomas F.A. Bishop, and Floris F. Van Ogtrop. 2019. "Assessment of the Decadal Impact of Wildfire on Water Quality in Forested Catchments" Water 11, no. 3: 533. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11030533