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Quantitative Assessment Model for the Effects of Drought Mitigation on Regional Agriculture Based on an Expectation Index of Drought Mitigation Effects

1
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2
School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China
3
Key Laboratory of Water Conservancy and Water Resources of Anhui Province, Water Resources Research Institute of Anhui Province and Huaihe River Commission, MWR, Hefei 230088, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(3), 464; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11030464
Received: 8 January 2019 / Revised: 26 February 2019 / Accepted: 27 February 2019 / Published: 5 March 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Water Resources Management and Governance)
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Abstract

The extent of water deficit and drought loss mitigation, through human activities such as defense, mitigation, and resistance to drought risk, is revealed by its effects on agriculture. To analyze the distribution regularities of the effects of drought mitigation on agriculture and to provide better insight on drought mitigation actions, an expectation index of drought mitigation effects (EDRE) was formulated based on the definitions of the drought system. The crop yield when no drought mitigation measures were implemented was calculated via tests and simulations, and expectations of drought-related yield loss with and without drought mitigation measures (EDRL and EDRM, respectively) were calculated in the drought loss risk assessment model. Then, a quantitative assessment model for the effects of drought mitigation on regional agriculture was built. Using a case study from the Huaibei Plain in the Anhui Province of China, it was found that drought mitigation effects decrease gradually from North to South. Moreover, small values of drought mitigation effects correspond to large EDRM and small EDRL values. It is necessary to urgently improve drought mitigation measures in locations where EDRE is small and EDRL is large, or where EDRE is small and EDRM is large. The main drought mitigation measures were identified through correlation analysis. Additionally, the adaptation of drought mitigation measures to local conditions leads to a spatial distribution regularity. View Full-Text
Keywords: drought mitigation effects assessment; crop yield loss rate; drought mitigation effects expectation index; crop water production function; drought loss risk assessment; information diffusion; Huaibei Plain in Anhui Province drought mitigation effects assessment; crop yield loss rate; drought mitigation effects expectation index; crop water production function; drought loss risk assessment; information diffusion; Huaibei Plain in Anhui Province
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Zhang, Y.; Jin, J.; Jiang, S.; Ning, S.; Zhou, Y.; Wu, Z. Quantitative Assessment Model for the Effects of Drought Mitigation on Regional Agriculture Based on an Expectation Index of Drought Mitigation Effects. Water 2019, 11, 464.

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