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Open AccessArticle

Uncertainty in Estimated Trends Using Gridded Rainfall Data: A Case Study of Bangladesh

1
Construction and Building Engineering Department, College of Engineering and Technology, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT), 2033 Elhorria, Cairo, Egypt
2
Department of Hydraulics and Hydrology, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 Skudia, Johor, Malaysia
3
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, 210029 Nanjing, China
4
Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(2), 349; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11020349
Received: 14 December 2018 / Revised: 2 February 2019 / Accepted: 2 February 2019 / Published: 19 February 2019
This study assessed the uncertainty in the spatial pattern of rainfall trends in six widely used monthly gridded rainfall datasets for 1979–2010. Bangladesh is considered as the case study area where changes in rainfall are the highest concern due to global warming-induced climate change. The evaluation was based on the ability of the gridded data to estimate the spatial patterns of the magnitude and significance of annual and seasonal rainfall trends estimated using Mann–Kendall (MK) and modified MK (mMK) tests at 34 gauges. A set of statistical indices including Kling–Gupta efficiency, modified index of agreement (md), skill score (SS), and Jaccard similarity index (JSI) were used. The results showed a large variation in the spatial patterns of rainfall trends obtained using different gridded datasets. Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) data was found to be the most suitable rainfall data for the assessment of annual and seasonal rainfall trends in Bangladesh which showed a JSI, md, and SS of 22%, 0.61, and 0.73, respectively, when compared with the observed annual trend. Assessment of long-term trend in rainfall (1901–2017) using mMK test revealed no change in annual rainfall and changes in seasonal rainfall only at a few grid points in Bangladesh over the last century. View Full-Text
Keywords: trend analysis; gridded rainfall data; Mann–Kendall test; Jaccard similarity index trend analysis; gridded rainfall data; Mann–Kendall test; Jaccard similarity index
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MDPI and ACS Style

Nashwan, M.S.; Shahid, S.; Wang, X. Uncertainty in Estimated Trends Using Gridded Rainfall Data: A Case Study of Bangladesh. Water 2019, 11, 349. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11020349

AMA Style

Nashwan MS, Shahid S, Wang X. Uncertainty in Estimated Trends Using Gridded Rainfall Data: A Case Study of Bangladesh. Water. 2019; 11(2):349. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11020349

Chicago/Turabian Style

Nashwan, Mohamed Salem; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Wang, Xiaojun. 2019. "Uncertainty in Estimated Trends Using Gridded Rainfall Data: A Case Study of Bangladesh" Water 11, no. 2: 349. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11020349

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