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Open AccessArticle

Assessment of Water Supply Stability for Drought-Vulnerable Boryeong Multipurpose Dam in South Korea Using Future Dry Climate Change Scenarios

1
Graduate School of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Konkuk University, 120 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul 05029, Korea
2
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Konkuk University, 120 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul 05029, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(11), 2403; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112403
Received: 4 September 2019 / Revised: 14 October 2019 / Accepted: 13 November 2019 / Published: 15 November 2019
This study assessed the water supply stability for Boryeong multipurpose dam by applying future dry climate change scenarios and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). CMCC-CM, INM-CM4, and IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were selected as the future dry conditions using Runs theory and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). For historical (1980–1999), present (2000–2019), and future periods (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) of the 6 scenarios, SWAT model was used to simulate the future dam water supply stability. The stability was evaluated in terms of reliability (RT), resilience (RS), and vulnerability (V) based on the monthly target storage. The results showed that the future RT can be decreased to 0.803 in 2050s IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 8.5 scenario from present 0.955. The future RS and V showed the minimum value of 0.003 and the biggest value of 3567.6 × 106 m3 in 2070s IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 4.5 scenario. The future RT, RS, and V showed that the dam has low resilience and is vulnerable to future drought scenarios. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; drought; dry scenario; SWAT; water supply; Runs theory; SPI climate change; drought; dry scenario; SWAT; water supply; Runs theory; SPI
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Kim, W.; Lee, J.; Kim, J.; Kim, S. Assessment of Water Supply Stability for Drought-Vulnerable Boryeong Multipurpose Dam in South Korea Using Future Dry Climate Change Scenarios. Water 2019, 11, 2403.

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