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Open AccessArticle

Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes of a Sparsely Gauged Mountainous Basin, Northern Pakistan

1
Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden, 01062 Dresden, Germany
2
Department of Remote Sensing Am Hubland, Institute of Geography and Geology, University of Wurzburg, 97080 Würzburg, Germany
3
Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(10), 2141; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102141
Received: 18 September 2019 / Revised: 11 October 2019 / Accepted: 12 October 2019 / Published: 15 October 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology and Hydrogeology)
Projected climate changes for the 21st century may cause great uncertainties on the hydrology of a river basin. This study explored the impacts of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the Jhelum River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Two downscaling methods (SDSM, Statistical Downscaling Model and LARS-WG, Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator), three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three future periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) were used to assess the climate change impacts on flow regimes. The results exhibited that both downscaling methods suggested an increase in annual streamflow over the river basin. There is generally an increasing trend of winter and autumn discharge, whereas it is complicated for summer and spring to conclude if the trend is increasing or decreasing depending on the downscaling methods. Therefore, the uncertainty associated with the downscaling of climate simulation needs to consider, for the best estimate, the impact of climate change, with its uncertainty, on a particular basin. The study also resulted that water yield and evapotranspiration in the eastern part of the basin (sub-basins at high elevation) would be most affected by climate change. The outcomes of this study would be useful for providing guidance in water management and planning for the river basin under climate change. View Full-Text
Keywords: water balance; hydrological regime; evapotranspiration; uncertainties; climate change; SWAT water balance; hydrological regime; evapotranspiration; uncertainties; climate change; SWAT
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MDPI and ACS Style

Saddique, N.; Usman, M.; Bernhofer, C. Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes of a Sparsely Gauged Mountainous Basin, Northern Pakistan. Water 2019, 11, 2141. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102141

AMA Style

Saddique N, Usman M, Bernhofer C. Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes of a Sparsely Gauged Mountainous Basin, Northern Pakistan. Water. 2019; 11(10):2141. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102141

Chicago/Turabian Style

Saddique, Naeem; Usman, Muhammad; Bernhofer, Christian. 2019. "Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes of a Sparsely Gauged Mountainous Basin, Northern Pakistan" Water 11, no. 10: 2141. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102141

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