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Spatiotemporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation and Study on Chaotic Characteristics in the Xijiang River Basin, China

by Xingchen Ding 1,2, Weihong Liao 3,4,*, Hao Wang 3,4, Xiaohui Lei 3,4, Wei Zhang 5 and Zhilei Yu 3,4,6
1
College of Resource and Civil Engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China
2
Science and Technology Innovation Center of Smart Water and Resource Environment, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China
3
State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
4
Department of Water Resources, IWHR, Beijing 100038, China
5
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
6
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University (THU), Beijing 100084, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(10), 2106; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102106
Received: 13 September 2019 / Revised: 4 October 2019 / Accepted: 6 October 2019 / Published: 10 October 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
Climate change leads to the increase of frequency and intensity for extreme precipitation events, potentially threatening the development of our society. It is of great significance to study the spatiotemporal variation of precipitation for understanding cycle process of water and its response to global warming. This paper selects the Xijiang River basin, which locates on a low latitude and coastland, as the research area. The spatiotemporal distribution and homogeneity of precipitation are analyzed, and the spatial trend is studied using 12 extreme precipitation indices. Finally, chaotic characteristics are evaluated for daily precipitation. The results showed that the precipitation in the basin tended to be unevenly distributed. On wet days, precipitation in the middle and the west was more and more uniform. The proportion of tiny rain was the largest, between 33.5% and 41.3%. The proportion of violent rain was the smallest, between 0.1% and 4.7%. Duan had the highest frequency for violent rain, and the probability of disasters caused by extreme precipitation near the station was the highest. The simple daily intensity index (SDII) showed a significant increase in the middle and the northeast. PRCPTOT (annual total wet-day precipitation) showed a decreasing trend in the northwest. The average rates of variation for R95PTOT (precipitation on very wet days) and R99PTOT (precipitation on extremely wet days) were −0.01 mm/year and 0.06 mm/year, respectively. There might be a risk of drought on the west of the basin in the future. Precipitation in other locations was still relatively abundant. Daily precipitation showed high dimension and high chaotic characteristics. The MED (minimum embedding dimension) was between 11 and 30, and the MLE (largest Lyapunov exponent) was between 0.037 and 0.144. View Full-Text
Keywords: extreme precipitation; wet days; trend; spatiotemporal variation; homogeneity; concentration index; Lorenz asymmetry coefficient; chaos theory; Xijiang River Basin extreme precipitation; wet days; trend; spatiotemporal variation; homogeneity; concentration index; Lorenz asymmetry coefficient; chaos theory; Xijiang River Basin
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Ding, X.; Liao, W.; Wang, H.; Lei, X.; Zhang, W.; Yu, Z. Spatiotemporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation and Study on Chaotic Characteristics in the Xijiang River Basin, China. Water 2019, 11, 2106.

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