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Quantifying the Uncertainty Related to Climate Change in the Assessment of Urban Flooding—A Case Study

Facoltà di Ingegneria ed Architettura, Università degli Studi di Enna Kore, 94100 Enna, Italy
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Water 2019, 11(10), 2072; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102072
Received: 10 August 2019 / Revised: 24 September 2019 / Accepted: 1 October 2019 / Published: 4 October 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Rainfall Analysis and Flood Management)
Recent studies have pointed out that climate change is likely to have important implications on the extent and frequency of flooding events. Indeed, the intensification of the water cycle occurring in different areas of the world can dramatically affect the incidence of extreme events and, consequently, the flow in rivers or artificial channels, increasing the probability of disastrous floods. In this context, the criteria for the assessment of flood risk need to be improved to take into account the variability of rainfall due to climate change. In this study, a Bayesian procedure was used to update the parameters of the depth–duration–frequency (DDF) curves and quantify the uncertainty related to their assessment in some climate change scenarios. The critical storm obtained from these updated DDF curves was used as input for the FLO-2D hydraulic model, in order to investigate the effects of climate change on flood risk. The area of study was an urban catchment in Piazza Armerina, a small town located in Southern Italy. Results showed that rainfall variations remarkably affect not only the magnitude of flood events, but also the flood susceptibility of the study area. View Full-Text
Keywords: flood risk; extreme rainfall; climate change; FLO-2D; uncertainty analysis flood risk; extreme rainfall; climate change; FLO-2D; uncertainty analysis
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Liuzzo, L.; Freni, G. Quantifying the Uncertainty Related to Climate Change in the Assessment of Urban Flooding—A Case Study. Water 2019, 11, 2072.

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