Application of a Fuzzy Two-Stage Chance Constrained Stochastic Programming Model for Optimization of the Ecological Services Value of the Interconnected River System Network Project in the Western Jilin Province, China
1
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2
College of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
3
State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(1), 68; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11010068
Received: 14 November 2018 / Revised: 18 December 2018 / Accepted: 27 December 2018 / Published: 2 January 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Water Resources Management and Governance)
Incremental ecological service value is an important assessment indicator for ecosystem restoration projects, such as the interconnected river system network project in western Jilin Province, China. In this paper, a fuzzy two-stage chance-constrained stochastic programming (FTSCCP) model is proposed for the optimization of regional incremental ecological service value through adjustments to the original water diversions and ecological water supplement schemes for ecosystem restoration under different management requirements and scenarios. The proposed method can effectively address uncertainties such as fuzzy parameters, probability distributions, and random variables in optimizing processes simultaneously. The results reveal that, under the requirement of meeting the original plan, a decrease in restoration scale would mainly appear under low-flow scenarios, and for the other scenarios, the original plan would be fully realized with an increase in flood utilization and a decrease in normal water supplementation. For the requirement of maximizing the incremental ecological service value, the adjustments would mainly be increases in water supplementation for reed wetlands and marsh wetlands and decreases in water surface area, including fish ponds and crab ponds. The ecological service values would be 11,256.79 million CNY (Chinese Yuan), 16,465.11 million CNY and 17,639.59 million CNY under low-, normal- and high-flow scenarios, respectively, with increases of 3.2%, 6.9% and 14.5% compared to the values based on the requirement of meeting the original plan. The results would be helpful for guiding regional ecosystem restoration and water resource management in the western Jilin Province.
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Keywords:
water supplementation; ecological service value; wetlands; optimization; uncertainty; fuzzy two-stage programming
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MDPI and ACS Style
Cai, B.; Meng, C.; Wang, X.; Li, Y. Application of a Fuzzy Two-Stage Chance Constrained Stochastic Programming Model for Optimization of the Ecological Services Value of the Interconnected River System Network Project in the Western Jilin Province, China. Water 2019, 11, 68.
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