An Overview of Hydropower Reservoirs in Brazil: Current Situation, Future Perspectives and Impacts of Climate Change
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- To provide an overview of the current state of hydroelectric plants in Brazil, focusing on reservoir plant types, providing insights into recent policies for the development of hydropower (Section 2);
- To assess the potential for new hydroelectric plants in the country (Section 3);
- To put the current state of hydroelectric plants in Brazil into context in comparison with other countries (Section 4);
- To present the possible impacts of climate change on hydroelectric power generation. To analyse and compare methodologies and results of studies that evaluate the impact of climate change on energy generation by hydroelectric reservoirs (Section 5);
- To identify measures to adapt to future climate scenarios that have been the focus of studies in Brazil and in other countries. (Section 6);
- To present a framework directed to the study of climatic and environmental impact on the generation of hydroelectricity (Section 7).
2. Current Situation of Brazilian Hydroelectric Plants
Recent Policies for the Development of Hydropower
3. The Potential for New Hydropower Plants in Brazil
4. Comparison to Other Countries
5. Possible Impacts of Climate Change on the Generation of Hydroelectricity
- Reduction in average precipitation that implies a reduction in runoff (three to four times).
- Increase in average precipitation. Depending on storage and turbine capacity, increased precipitation can lead to an increase in power generation potential. However, this does not always occur, considering that plants are designed for a certain river flow, and the increase of this flow would only lead to unproductive spills.
- Increase in average temperature. Rising temperatures will affect soil moisture levels, interfering with the runoff and storage of water in dams. In addition, increase of temperature causes changes in atmospheric pressure and wind patterns. These changes can alter the precipitation patterns [30].
- Extreme droughts. Depending on the duration of the drought period, the reservoirs act as a buffer, maintaining normal power generation capacity.
- Flooding. It entails sediment loads beyond what is expected, and depending on installed capacity, they do not always bring benefits in terms of increasing the potential for generating power.
6. Adaptations to Reduce Vulnerability and Increase Resilience
- Reservoirs with smaller surface area and greater depth tend to be less affected by global warming, which increases evaporation rate of reservoir (according to previous study, 1.1 m depth on average per year) [13].
- Some hydropower systems offer flexibility of water storage, pump-storage HPP. In periods of lower demands, the water is rebounded to a reservoir with higher elevation, and, in periods of higher demand, the water is released by the turbines. In this case, the generation of hydroelectricity is less dependent on changes in the hydrological regime [4]. The limitations for the construction of these hydroelectric schemes in Brazil are related to the establishment of regulatory bases and economic viability.
- Optimised operating rules can balance power generation [7,16,17,20,57]. An example of such operational policies would be raising and lowering reservoir level during some seasons. Haguma et al. [6] proposed as adaptive operational policies for Manicouagan Reservoir (Canada) the lowering in reservoir water level during winter and raising during spring. For the Furnas HPP reservoir (Brazil), Ribeiro Júnior et al. [51] proposed an operative rule that contemplates the time and the cycle of attendance to a certain level of the reservoir, to attend to the generation of energy and to guarantee the sustainability of multiple uses of water for the future climate.
- Encouraging the use of solar and wind energy can contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gases and to Brazilian social and economic development [28]. Biomass as an energy source is also interesting due to the amount of waste from agriculture and forest products industries, extracted mainly from the sugar and alcohol industry [11,12].
- Sources such as biomass (from bagasse and sugar cane straw) and wind power can contribute significantly to the generation of energy in periods with lower rainfall intensity, as it coincides with the more intense potential of these sources [8]. It can complement the generation of hydroelectricity in the period of greater fragility, especially the run-of-river hydropower plants.
- The great annual variability in the hydrological conditions and the intense rain seasonality can put at risk the Brazilian hydrothermal energy generation system. However, a complementarity between hydroelectric, wind and solar photovoltaic systems could contribute to the stability of production and a decrease in thermoelectric generation [71].
7. Discussion
- Global climate change affects power generation in hydropower reservoirs;
- The increase in temperature causes changes in atmospheric pressure and wind patterns and consequently in precipitation and humidity patterns;
- The combination of changes in precipitation and temperature affect the moisture levels of soil;
- Increase of temperatures results in an increase in potential evaporation;
- Changes in wind speed and humidity may compensate for or amplify the increase in temperature, which may interfere with the evaporation rate of the basin and reservoirs;
- Precipitation is the climatic variable that most affects the flow of rivers;
- Increased precipitation can lead to a rise in river flow; however, the increase in temperature may counterbalance the effect of this rise, as it increases the rate of evaporation of the reservoirs and the evapotranspiration in the basin;
- Global warming increases the demand for water for agricultural exploitation (mainly irrigation) and other socio-environmental demands;
- Changes in land cover alters the rate of evapotranspiration, which may imply changes in runoff characteristics;
- Some changes in land cover can lead to soil degradation (silting), which can affect both the basin and the reservoir level due to sediment transport—aggravating the negative impacts of climate change;
- Hydrological impacts vary according to: precipitation intensity, basin characteristics, type of vegetation and/or changes in land cover;
- As a chain effect, changes in runoff can affect the production of electricity.
8. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Region | Name | River | Power (MW) | Useful Volume (km3) | Storable Useful Volume (km3/GW) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
North | Tucurui | Tocantins | 8370 | 38.98 | 4.7 |
North | Balbina | Uatuma | 250 | 10.22 | 40.9 |
Northeast | Sobradinho | São Francisco | 1050 | 28.67 | 27.3 |
Southeast/Midwest | Serra da Mesa | Tocantins | 1275 | 43.25 | 33.9 |
Southeast/Midwest | Furnas | Grande | 1312 | 17.22 | 13.1 |
Southeast/Midwest | Tres Marias | São Francisco | 396 | 15.28 | 38.6 |
Southeast/Midwest | Emborcaçao | Paranaiba | 1192 | 13.06 | 11.0 |
Southeast/Midwest | Itumbiara | Paranaiba | 2280 | 12.45 | 5.5 |
Southeast/Midwest | Nova Ponte | Araguari | 510 | 10.38 | 20.4 |
South | Foz do Areia | Iguaçu | 1676 | 5.80 | 3.8 |
South | Passo Real | Jacui | 158 | 3.36 | 21.2 |
Under Construction | Planned | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Plant | Power Generated (kW) | River/State | Plant | Power Generated (kW) | River/State |
Sinop | 400,000 | Teles Pires/MT | Pai Querê | 292,000 | Pelotas/RS e SC |
Baixo Iguaçu | 350,200 | Iguaçu/PR | Itaocara I | 150,000 | Paraíba do Sul/RJ |
Colíder | 300,000 | Teles Pires/MT | Santa Branca | 62,000 | Tibagi/PR |
São Roque | 141,900 | Canoas/SC | São João | 60,000 | Chopim/PR |
Tibagi Montante | 32,000 | Tibagi/PR | Itumirim | 50,000 | Corrente/GO |
Ponte de Pedra | 30,000 | Ponte de Pedra/MT | Cachoeirinha | 45,000 | Chopim/PR |
Bom Retiro | 35,180 | Taquari/RS |
Study | Local | Climate Model and Greenhouse Emission Scenarios (IPCC) | Downscaling Method | Components of the Model | Hydrologic Model | Simulation and Optimization Approach | Future Periods | Main Results (Projected Changes) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
[16] | Karoon-4 reservoir (Iran) | HADCM3 model a (GCM), A2 b | Proportional approach | Temperature and precipitation | IHACRES rainfall-runoff model c [58] | Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) | 2025–2039 2055–2069 2085–2099 | Temperature: −1.35, −1.45 and −2.20 °C; Precipitation: −18%, −0.4% and −30%; Inflow to the Karoon4 reservoir would decline in the future periods. |
[17] | Mauvoisin reservoir and Chanrion run-of-river power plant (Switzerland) | 10 regional climate models (RCM) Ensembles project (ensembles-eu.metoffice.com), A1B | Delta method | Temperature, scenarios of energy consumption and prices | Glacier Evolution Runoff Model (GERM) [59,60] | Threshold Accepting | 2011–2100 | Inflows are expected to decrease at average by 18% from 2001–2010 to 2091–2100; Power generation: −20%; Power generation after optimization: −16%. |
[20] | Khersan 1, Karoon 3 and Karoon 4 reservoirs (Iran) | HADCM3 model (GCM), A2 | Proportional approach | Temperature and precipitation | IHACRES model | Systems dynamics (SD)/Nonlinear programming (NLP) | 2025–2039 2055–2069 2085–2099 | Temperature increase; Decrease of precipitation and inflow; Power generation (simulation multi-reservoir after optimization): −23%, −7% and −34%. |
[57] | Reservoirs and run-of-river schems (Canada) | 8 GCM with 23 downscaled climate projections, A1B, A2 e B1 | Downscaled climate projections of Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) | Temperature and precipitation | Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model [61] | Robust optimization | 2050 | Temperature increase; Increased precipitation trend in most seasons and annually; More runoff available in the winter and spring seasons, and with drier conditions in the summer; Hydropower potential: +11%. |
[6] | Reservoirs (Manic-5 and Toulnustouc) and run-of-river hydropower plant (Manic-1, Manic-2 and Manic-3) (Canada) | Climate model ensemble (13 GCM) A1B, A2 and B1 | Downscaling method proposed by Widmann et al. [62]. | Temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, topography and soil types and land uses | Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) | Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SSDP) | 2010–2039 2040–2069 2070–2099 | Temperature (2070–2099): +3 to +10 °C; Precipitation in the winter (2070–2099): +5 to +60%; Annual inflow volume: +4.3%, +9.1% and +13.5%; Average annual power generation: +4.2%, +8.7% and +14.1%); Unproductive Spills increase. |
[7] | Yesa reservoir (Spain) | Climate model ensemble (12 RCM), A1B | Delta method | Temperature, precipitation, reservoir inflows and outflows, storage level, soil types and land cover | Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys) | - | 2021–2050 | Temperature: +1 to +2 °C; Annual average rainfall: −10%; Annual streamflow: −13.8%; Annual runoff (considering evolution of land cover): −16%; Annual runoff (combined effects of climate and land cover change): −29.8%. |
[5] | Major existing and planned new hydropower plants (reservoir and run-of-river) of Zambezi river basin (Southern Africa) | 2 GCM (CNRM-CM3 and ECHAM5 MPI-M) d, A2 | Direct use of regional models | Temperature, precipitation and irrigation development | Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) [63,64,65] | - | 2050–2070 | Higher average temperatures; Potentially reducing average electricity generation (12% in the Kariba reservoir); Reduction in the average annual generation in usual irrigation growth (6%); Reduction in the average anual generation when irrigation is prioritized (20% in Cahora Bassa) |
[66] | Tekeze reservoir (Ethiopia) | CORDEX-Africa (RCM), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios e | - | Temperature, precipitation, topography and soil types and land uses | Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) | HEC-ResPRM Optimization Model f | 2011–2040 2041–2070 2071–2100 | Mean annual temperature: +1.1 °C and +3.38 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios; Mean annual precipitation: +45%; Results showed increase in annual and monthly inflow into the reservoir except in dry months from May to June. |
[21] | Reservoirs (Brazil) | HADCM3 model (GCM), A2 e B2 | PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) model (Hadley Centre, UK) | Precipitation | Linear rainfall–flow model for elasticities | SUISHI-O g | 2071–2100 | Firm power (A2 and B2 emission scenarios, respectively): −1.58% and −3.15%; General negative trend in flow with varying seasonal impacts; São Francisco basin seemed to be the most affected (decrease in energy production would reach more than 7% in the B2 scenario). |
[51] | Furnas reservoir (Brazil) | HADCM3 model (GCM), A1B | Regional ETA model (National Institute for Space Research—INPE, Brazil) | Temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, topography and soil types and land uses | MGB-IPH model h [67]. | Frequency and duration model | 2011–2040 2041–2070 2071–2099 | Increased trend of rain rates, not reflecting on flow; Period 2041–2070: prolonged drought, the reservoir can be emptied completely so that the energy demand is met; Increase in generation by 32% while maintaining the fullest reservoir. |
Study | Adaptations to Reduce Vulnerability of Hydroelectric Reservoirs to Climate Change |
---|---|
[13] | Obtaining information on the climatic impacts (monitoring of the climate and the runoff of the basins) in the hydroelectric generation and incorporating climatic risks in its management; Investments in adequate infrastructure, with equipment designed to operate in different climate conditions (e.g., turbine types); Modernization of plants to enable long-term sustainability; Development of drought management plans to deal with water competition; Modifications to operating rules; Management of land use to reduce soil erosion in the basin and reservoir; Consideration of the diversification of the energy matrix. |
[22] | Dynamic management with water allocation adjustments. |
[30] | Controlled disposal of industrial waste; The conservation of vegetation growth; Regulation of flows of rivers and their tributaries. |
[57] | Adaptations between hydroelectric and alternative scenarios involving other sources of energy. |
[6] | Adaptation of the operational policy to the future hydrological regime with adjustments in reservoir levels in seasons. |
[7] | Simplified water management schemes based on the operational history of the dam, applying restrictions to the releases of water from the dam. |
[17] | Operational rules optimized for balancing power generation (optimization through hydraulic loading). |
[4] | Flexibility in the storage of water obtained through pump-storage HPP systems. |
[51] | To apply restrictions to the releases of water from the dam. |
[26] | Store energy by pumping water to a new reservoir during the wet period and generate energy by releasing the stored water during the dry period (Enhanced-Pumped-Storage). |
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De Souza Dias, V.; Pereira da Luz, M.; Medero, G.M.; Tarley Ferreira Nascimento, D. An Overview of Hydropower Reservoirs in Brazil: Current Situation, Future Perspectives and Impacts of Climate Change. Water 2018, 10, 592. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10050592
De Souza Dias V, Pereira da Luz M, Medero GM, Tarley Ferreira Nascimento D. An Overview of Hydropower Reservoirs in Brazil: Current Situation, Future Perspectives and Impacts of Climate Change. Water. 2018; 10(5):592. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10050592
Chicago/Turabian StyleDe Souza Dias, Viviane, Marta Pereira da Luz, Gabriela M. Medero, and Diego Tarley Ferreira Nascimento. 2018. "An Overview of Hydropower Reservoirs in Brazil: Current Situation, Future Perspectives and Impacts of Climate Change" Water 10, no. 5: 592. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10050592
APA StyleDe Souza Dias, V., Pereira da Luz, M., Medero, G. M., & Tarley Ferreira Nascimento, D. (2018). An Overview of Hydropower Reservoirs in Brazil: Current Situation, Future Perspectives and Impacts of Climate Change. Water, 10(5), 592. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10050592