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Open AccessArticle

Real-Time Flood Control by Tree-Based Model Predictive Control Including Forecast Uncertainty: A Case Study Reservoir in Turkey

1
Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, University of Duisburg-Essen, 45141 Essen, Germany
2
Department of Civil Engineering, Anadolu University, 26555 Eskişehir, Turkey
3
Deltares, Operational Water Management, Deltares, Rotterdamseweg 185, 26 MH Delft, The Netherlands
4
KISTERS AG, Business Unit, Pascalstraße, 52076 Aachen, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2018, 10(3), 340; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10030340
Received: 18 December 2017 / Revised: 8 March 2018 / Accepted: 9 March 2018 / Published: 19 March 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptive Catchment Management and Reservoir Operation)
Optimal control of reservoirs is a challenging task due to conflicting objectives, complex system structure, and uncertainties in the system. Real time control decisions suffer from streamflow forecast uncertainty. This study aims to use Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts (PSFs) having a lead-time up to 48 h as input for the recurrent reservoir operation problem. A related technique for decision making is multi-stage stochastic optimization using scenario trees, referred to as Tree-based Model Predictive Control (TB-MPC). Deterministic Streamflow Forecasts (DSFs) are provided by applying random perturbations on perfect data. PSFs are synthetically generated from DSFs by a new approach which explicitly presents dynamic uncertainty evolution. We assessed different variables in the generation of stochasticity and compared the results using different scenarios. The developed real-time hourly flood control was applied to a test case which had limited reservoir storage and restricted downstream condition. According to hindcasting closed-loop experiment results, TB-MPC outperforms the deterministic counterpart in terms of decreased downstream flood risk according to different independent forecast scenarios. TB-MPC was also tested considering different number of tree branches, forecast horizons, and different inflow conditions. We conclude that using synthetic PSFs in TB-MPC can provide more robust solutions against forecast uncertainty by resolution of uncertainty in trees. View Full-Text
Keywords: reservoir operation; multi-stage stochastic optimization; TB-MPC; flood control; real-time control reservoir operation; multi-stage stochastic optimization; TB-MPC; flood control; real-time control
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MDPI and ACS Style

Uysal, G.; Alvarado-Montero, R.; Schwanenberg, D.; Şensoy, A. Real-Time Flood Control by Tree-Based Model Predictive Control Including Forecast Uncertainty: A Case Study Reservoir in Turkey. Water 2018, 10, 340. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10030340

AMA Style

Uysal G, Alvarado-Montero R, Schwanenberg D, Şensoy A. Real-Time Flood Control by Tree-Based Model Predictive Control Including Forecast Uncertainty: A Case Study Reservoir in Turkey. Water. 2018; 10(3):340. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10030340

Chicago/Turabian Style

Uysal, Gökçen; Alvarado-Montero, Rodolfo; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Şensoy, Aynur. 2018. "Real-Time Flood Control by Tree-Based Model Predictive Control Including Forecast Uncertainty: A Case Study Reservoir in Turkey" Water 10, no. 3: 340. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10030340

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