Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods have shown advantages in supporting decision-making with problems that confront conflicting objectives. However, current applications to complex environmental problems featuring the dynamic social sphere, particularly problems involving cultural heritage and nature, have yet to substantially reflect this. The dynamic social sphere reflects the demand for scenario forecasting in decision-making support. This knowledge gap has not been addressed sufficiently in MCDA research. A participatory MCDA method is hence proposed as a merger with Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) as the scenario forecasting. The MCDA is then carried out to tackle a complex environmental problem caused by traditional food production in a historic town, Daxi in Taiwan. The result reveals a remarkable willingness to support this issue of a historically significant industry causing detriment to environment (with WTP estimate of 128,700,000 USD from the public) and suggests a plan that applies multiple policy instruments rather than following a potentially adverse polluter-pays principle. This manifests the authors’ argument that recognition of heritage significance has dramatically affected selection of policy instruments and provides a critical recommendation to the local government which has struggled to find solutions. The proposed MCDA also highlights its participatory aspect for addressing issues involving cultural heritage, supported by several key steps, in particular the intervention-impact value tree building, the scenario forecasting and the sensitivity analysis.
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License
which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited