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A Bias Correction Method for Rainfall Forecasts Using Backward Storm Tracking

School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, College of Engineering, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Korea
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Water 2018, 10(12), 1728; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10121728
Received: 23 October 2018 / Revised: 19 November 2018 / Accepted: 22 November 2018 / Published: 26 November 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
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Abstract

This study proposes a new method to estimate the bias correction ratio for the rainfall forecast to be used as input for a flash flood warning system. This method requires a backward tracking to locate where the forecasted storm is at the present time, and the bias correction ratio is estimated at the tracked location, not at the warning site. The proposed method was applied to the rainfall forecasts provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. A total of 300 warning sites considered in the flash flood warning system for mountain regions in Korea (FFWS-MR) were considered as study sites, along with four different storm events in 2016. As a result, it was confirmed that the proposed method provided more reasonable results, even in the case where the number of rain gauges was small. Comparison between the observed rain rate and the corrected rainfall forecasts by applying the conventional method and the proposed method also showed that the proposed method was superior to the conventional method. View Full-Text
Keywords: flash flood; rainfall forecast; bias correction ratio; backward storm tracking flash flood; rainfall forecast; bias correction ratio; backward storm tracking
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Na, W.; Yoo, C. A Bias Correction Method for Rainfall Forecasts Using Backward Storm Tracking. Water 2018, 10, 1728.

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