Approaches to Failure Risk Analysis of the Water Distribution Network with Regard to the Safety of Consumers
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Legal Regulations Regarding Safety of the Water Supply for Consumers
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. The Failure Risk Approaches of Failure Framework and Data Source
- type of a water pipe (mains, distribution or service connections),
- months in which the network was damaged.
3.2. Description of the Study Area
3.3. Characteristics of the Research Object
3.4. Methods
3.4.1. Failure Rate Analysis
3.4.2. A Rank Analysis of Failure-Rate Criteria
3.4.3. Seasonal Analysis of Failure Rates
- the seasonal index Si given by:
- absolute levels of seasonal fluctuations for individual sub-periods, calculated using:
- the standard deviation (SD) characterizing absolute levels of seasonal variation, with these representing an assessment of variability due to the factor of season over a period of 13 years in operation:
3.4.4. A Proposed Modified Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Implementing an Analytic Hierarchy Process for Risk Assessment as Regards Failures in a WDN
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Failure Rate Analysis
4.2. Results of Failure Risk Assessment for WDN
5. Conclusions and Perspectives
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Interpretation | Value of aij | Definition | |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | i and j are equally important | equal importance |
3 | 1/3 | i is slightly more important than j | moderate importance |
5 | 1/5 | i is more important than j | strong importance |
7 | 1/7 | i is far more important than j | very strong or demonstrated importance |
9 | 1/9 | i is absolutely more important than j | extreme importance |
2, 4, 5, 8 | 1/2, 1/4, 1/5, 1/8 | intermediate values | for comprise between the above values |
n | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RI | 0.52 | 0.89 | 1.11 | 1.25 | 1.35 | 1.40 | 1.45 | 1.49 | 1.52 | 1.54 |
No. | Categories and Subcategories of Criteria | Point Weighting of Subcategories | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
I | Ia) | Design | a reputable design office with a quality certificate, having completed projects on the reference list, and engaging in design using proven computer programs, | 1 | |
Ib) | design office has certified designs and legitimizes itself by virtue of a list of references, | 2 | |||
Ic) | a person engaging in business activity, having in his portfolio partial projects for the expansion of WDN, | 3 | |||
Id) | network monitoring * | above-standard, | 1 | ||
Ie) | standard, | 2 | |||
If) | none, | 3 | |||
Ig) | corrosion protection | full, | 1 | ||
Ih) | standard, | 2 | |||
Ii) | none, | 3 | |||
II | IIa) | Performance | construction company is certified and has completed investments in the reference list, procedures related to the acceptance of investments, pipes laid in accordance with the best available technology, | 1 | |
IIb) | construction company has a reference list of completed investments, verification of material specifications and acceptance procedures is performed, | 2 | |||
IIc) | construction company is entering the water supply market, but has no experience in this area, | 3 | |||
III | IIIa) | Operation | type of WDN according to higher priority to repair | SC, | 1 |
IIIb) | distribution network, | 2 | |||
IIIc) | mains, | 3 | |||
IIId) | failure rate, λ | to 0.5 km−1∙year−1, | 1 | ||
IIIe) | from 0.5 km−1∙year−1 to 1.0 km−1∙year−1, | 2 | |||
IIIf) | >1.0 km−1∙year−1, | 3 | |||
IIIg) | dynamic loads, including difficulty of repairs in area in which a network is situated | pipeline in non-urbanized areas, | 1 | ||
IIIh) | pipeline in pedestrian traffic (under pavements), | 2 | |||
IIIi) | pipeline in the street, | 3 | |||
IIIj) | WDN age | to 20 years, | 1 | ||
IIIk) | from 20 to 50 years, | 2 | |||
IIIl) | above 50 years, | 3 | |||
IIIm) | WDN material | plastics, | 1 | ||
IIIn) | steel, | 2 | |||
IIIo) | grey cast iron, | 3 | |||
IV | IVa) | Social | nuisance resulting from road occupation and green area | pipeline in non-urbanized area, | 1 |
IVb) | pipeline in pedestrian traffic, | 2 | |||
IVc) | pipeline in street, | 3 | |||
V | Va) | Financial | size of possible losses arising should failure occur | financial loss of up to 104 EUR, | 1 |
Vb) | financial loss from 104 to 105 EUR, | 2 | |||
Vc) | financial loss above 105 EUR, | 3 | |||
Vd) | difficulty of repairing damage | repair brigades are organized and equipped appropriately and are in full readiness for 24 h, | 1 | ||
Ve) | basic equipment to repair a failure, one-shift work, | 2 | |||
Vf) | lack of mechanized equipment to repair a failure, | 3 | |||
VI | VIa) | Environment and surroundings | hydrogeological conditions | good, | 1 |
VIb) | average, | 2 | |||
VIc) | poor, | 3 | |||
VId) | density of underground infrastructure in the vicinity of the network | low, | 1 | ||
VIe) | average, | 2 | |||
VIf) | high. | 3 |
Category | I | II | III | IV | V | VI | Weight |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
I | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0.3262 |
II | 0.5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0.2589 |
III | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0.1959 |
IV | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.0856 |
V | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.333 | 0.5 | 1 | 2 | 0.0712 |
VI | 0.333 | 0.333 | 0.333 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.0622 |
Total | 2.833 | 4.333 | 5.917 | 14 | 14.5 | 14 | 0.3262 |
λmax = 6.3071; CI = 0.0614; RI = 1.25; CR = 0.0491 |
No. | Categories and Subcategories of Criteria | Weight | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Point Weight of Subcategories | Categories | |||||
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
I | Ib) | Designing | design office has certified designs and legitimizes itself by virtue of a list of references, | 2 | 0.3262 | |
Ie) | network monitoring | standard, simplified monitoring of water- WDN with the use of pressure measurement, | 2 | 0.3262 | ||
Ii) | corrosion protection | not applicable | 3 | 0.3262 | ||
II | IIb) | Performance | construction company has a reference list of completed investments, verification of material specifications and acceptance procedures is performed, | 2 | 0.2589 | |
III | IIIb) | Operation | type of WDN | distribution network, | 2 | 0.1959 |
IIId) | failure rate, λ | to 0.5 km−1∙year−1, | 1 | 0.1959 | ||
IIIg) | dynamic loads | pipeline in not urbanized areas, | 1 | 0.1959 | ||
IIIk) | WDN age | from 20 to 50 years, | 2 | 0.1959 | ||
IIIm) | WDN material | plastics, | 1 | 0.1959 | ||
IV | IVa) | Social | nuisance of road and green area users | pipeline in non-urbanized area, | 1 | 0.0856 |
V | Va) | Financial | size of possible losses arising should failure occur | financial loss of up to 104 EUR, | 1 | 0.0712 |
Ve) | difficulty of repairing damage | basic equipment to repair a failure, one-shift work, | 2 | 0.0712 | ||
VI | VIc) | Environment and surroundings | hydrogeological conditions | poor, | 3 | 0.0622 |
VId) | density of underground infrastructure in the vicinity of the network | low. | 1 | 0.0622 |
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Pietrucha-Urbanik, K.; Tchórzewska-Cieślak, B. Approaches to Failure Risk Analysis of the Water Distribution Network with Regard to the Safety of Consumers. Water 2018, 10, 1679. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111679
Pietrucha-Urbanik K, Tchórzewska-Cieślak B. Approaches to Failure Risk Analysis of the Water Distribution Network with Regard to the Safety of Consumers. Water. 2018; 10(11):1679. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111679
Chicago/Turabian StylePietrucha-Urbanik, Katarzyna, and Barbara Tchórzewska-Cieślak. 2018. "Approaches to Failure Risk Analysis of the Water Distribution Network with Regard to the Safety of Consumers" Water 10, no. 11: 1679. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111679
APA StylePietrucha-Urbanik, K., & Tchórzewska-Cieślak, B. (2018). Approaches to Failure Risk Analysis of the Water Distribution Network with Regard to the Safety of Consumers. Water, 10(11), 1679. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10111679