Precipitation Thresholds of Drought Disaster for Maize in Areas in Front of Bengbu Sluice, Huaihe River Basin, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area
3. Data and Methods
3.1. Data
3.2. Methods
3.2.1. Division of Main Growth Period of Maize
3.2.2. Climatic Yield
3.2.3. Water Deficit Index
3.2.4. Calculation of Precipitation Thresholds
3.2.5. Thiessen Polygon
3.2.6. Space Interpolation
4. Results
4.1. Critical Water Period During Summer Maize Growth
4.2. Temporal and Spatial Precipitation Characteristics of Critical Water Period for Summer Maize Growth
4.3. Determining the Optimal Probability Distribution Model
4.4. Determining Precipitation Thresholds of a Drought Disaster for Summer Maize
4.4.1. Numerical Determination of Precipitation Thresholds of a Drought Disaster for Summer Maize
4.4.2. Spatial Distribution of Precipitation Thresholds of a Drought Disaster for Summer Maize
4.5. Validation of Precipitation Thresholds of Drought Disaster for Summer Maize
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Year | Actual Disaster Data |
---|---|
1973 | Henan province: About 1.1 million hectares of farmland were influenced, among which 733,300 hectares were seriously influenced in Shangqiu, Zhoukou, and Zhumadian during the first 10 days of August. Approximately 7300 hectares in three counties, Luyi, Dancheng, and Taikang, harvested no grain. Areas in Yongcheng, Tacheng, Minquan, Suixian, and Shangcaixian were seriously influenced by drought, whereas areas along the Huaihe River were slightly influenced. Anhui: In the beginning of August, most areas in Anhui Province had no rain, resulting in drought of different degrees in the whole province. |
1985 | Henan: There were no soaking rains in the south in August. The rainfall in Xinyang, the Nanyang Basin, and south of Zhumadian decreased by 60% to 75% from the average level over the past few years, leading to serious summer drought. Dwellers in partly hilly areas experienced difficulties in obtaining drinking water, which had to be transported to 780,000 dwellers and 400,000 draught animals from distant places under the most severe circumstances. The government invested 2100 million RMB to fight drought and natural disasters. |
1987 | Henan: About 18,500 dwellers and 3100 hectares of farm crops were hit by drought in Jiaxian, and 2700 hectares of farmland thus turned into a damage area. Approximately 1 million hectares of land were irrigated in the whole province and 3.04 million farmers worked daily. Anhui: It was continuously dry north of Huaibei after the summer drought was followed by autumn drought in quick succession, leading to a situation of high temperature and rapid evaporation. The drought increasingly spread in autumn to south of the Huaibei and Huaihe rivers. |
1994 | Henan: Drought developed rapidly due to low precipitation in Henan Province, and no rain fell in late September and early October, leading to high temperatures and more soil evaporation. Most areas were affected by different degrees of drought except Xinyang, in which drought was not obvious. Drought was especially serious north and west of Henan. Most of the soil at 30 cm in Henan contained 10% or less moisture. Anhui: Most parts of the province were hit by drought from September to November. Dry soil layers in Hefei, Huoqiu, and other areas occurred at 7–8 cm, which exerted negative impacts on sowing in autumn. In Linquan, about 1.12 million dwellers were victims of the disaster, with 94,333 hectares turning to damaged land and 8000 hectares having no harvest. |
1997 | Henan: The precipitation was nearly zero in the whole province from August 5 and the drought in 65 counties worsened sharply. About 3,084,000 hectares of autumn harvested crops were hit by drought, with 1,618,000 hectares seriously affected and 521,300 hectares of crops failing by the end of August. Rainfall in Luohe was only 2.6 mm over 37 days, leading to reduction in output of 55,000 hectares, and the economic loss triggered by drought was 25.25 million RMB. Anhui: The whole province experienced autumn drought from September to November. 70 counties turned to main drought areas from west of the Huaihe River to east of the Yangtze River. About 2,267,000 hectares of the main output area of summer harvested crops was seriously affected by drought. |
1999 | Henan: From 8 July to 3 September, Luohe was hit by summer drought and continuous autumn drought that has rarely been recorded in history. Soil moisture content was only 9%. The soil water shortage and farmland drought were serious; over 146,000 dwellers were affected, 9780 hectares of farmland became damaged, and 2030 hectares failed. Anhui: North of Hefei was hit by summer and autumn drought from June to September. Rainfall in the north was continuously low, leading to a sharply developed drought and rice land cracking from June to September. By 18 August, 1,333,000 hectares of farmland had been damaged, leading to 800,000 hectares of farmland becoming a disaster area. Some 380,000 dwellers had difficulties in obtaining drinking water and the direct economic loss was 2.9 billion RMB. |
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Date | 1 June–20 June | 21 June–10 July | 11 July–10 August | 11 August–30 September | 1 June–30 September |
Growth Period | Sowing-seeding stage | Seeding-jointing stage | Jointing-tassel appearance stage | Tassel appearance-maturity | Whole period |
Growth Period | Sowing-Seeding Stage | Seeding-Jointing Stage | Jointing-Tassel Appearance Stage | Tassel Appearance-Maturity |
---|---|---|---|---|
Crop coefficient (Kc) | 0.65 | 0.98 | 1.55 | 1.40 |
Bounded Probability Distribution Function | Number of Parameters | Unbounded Probability Distribution Function | Number of Parameters | Non-Negative Probability Distribution Function | Number of Parameters | Generalized Distribution Function | Number of Parameters |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beta | 4 | Cauchy | 2 | Chi-Squared | 2 | Gen. Extreme Value | 3 |
Johnson SB | 3 | Error Function | 1 | Erlang | 3 | Gen. Logistic | 3 |
Pert | 3 | Gumbel Max | 2 | Exponential | 2 | Gen. Pareto | 3 |
Gumbel Min | 2 | Frechet | 3 | Phased Bi-Exponential | 4 | ||
Laplace | 2 | Gamma | 3 | Phased Bi-Weibull | 6 | ||
Logistic | 2 | Log-Logistic | 3 | Wakeby | 5 | ||
Normal | 2 | Inv. Gaussian | 3 | ||||
Student’s t | 1 | Lognormal | 3 | ||||
1 | Pareto | 2 | |||||
Rayleigh | 2 | ||||||
Weibull | 3 |
Mild Drought | Moderate Drought | Severe Drought | Extreme Drought |
---|---|---|---|
Sowing-jointing stage: the emergence rate is less than 80%, and the seedlings appear to be wilt at noon; Jointing-tassel appearance stage: the leaves of the plant are curled, and the growth and development are significantly affected; Tassel appearance-maturity: the 1000-grain weight drops slightly. | Sowing-jointing stage: the emergence rate is less than 60%, and leaves with wilting or dead seedlings; Jointing-tassel appearance stage: the leaves are wilted and twisted, and the growth and development are severely hindered; Tassel appearance-maturity: the plants could not be properly grouted and the 1000-grain weight drops significantly. | Sowing-jointing stage:seedlings died during the drought; Jointing-tassel appearance stage: the leaves are dry, the stems are short, the growth is stagnant, and some plants die during the drought; Tassel appearance-maturity: plant stems and leaves are premature, and the yield is greatly reduced. | Sowing-jointing stage: seedlings died during the drought; Jointing-tassel appearance stage: most plants died during the drought; Tassel appearance-maturity: the plant dies during the drought and the yields of crops are greatly reduced. |
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Gao, C.; Li, X. Precipitation Thresholds of Drought Disaster for Maize in Areas in Front of Bengbu Sluice, Huaihe River Basin, China. Water 2018, 10, 1395. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101395
Gao C, Li X. Precipitation Thresholds of Drought Disaster for Maize in Areas in Front of Bengbu Sluice, Huaihe River Basin, China. Water. 2018; 10(10):1395. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101395
Chicago/Turabian StyleGao, Chao, and Xuewen Li. 2018. "Precipitation Thresholds of Drought Disaster for Maize in Areas in Front of Bengbu Sluice, Huaihe River Basin, China" Water 10, no. 10: 1395. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101395