Dynamic Ensemble Analysis of Frontal Placement Impacts in the Presence of Elevated Thunderstorms during PRECIP Events
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Background and Discussion
2.1. Defining Elevated Convection
2.2. Forecasting Elevated Convection and Cold Pools
2.3. Defining DCIN and DCAPE
2.4. Cold Pool Behavior in PRECIP
2.5. High-Resolution Ensemble Modeling of Heavy Rainfall
3. Methods
4. Results
4.1. IOP 1: 1–2 April 2014
4.2. IOP 2: 3–4 June 2014
4.3. IOP 5: 4–5 June 2015
4.4. IOP 8: 8 July 2015
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Date | Location | Brief Synoptic Description |
---|---|---|
IOP 1: 1–2 April 2014 | West Central Missouri | Warm front lifting northward, front did not stall |
IOP 2: 3–4 June 2014 | Southeast Nebraska | Warm front stalled and sank southward |
IOP 5: 4–5 June 2015 | Southeast Nebraska | Warm front stalled and sank southward |
IOP 8: 7–8 July 2015 | Central Missouri | Warm front lifting northward, front did not stall |
Number | Name | IC | Microphysics | PBL Scheme | Cumulus Physics | Advection Scheme |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | LYE | RAP | Lin | YUS | Explicit | PD |
2 | LYG | RAP | Lin | YUS | Grell 3D | PD |
3 | LME | RAP | Lin | MYJ | Explicit | PD |
4 | LMG | RAP | Lin | MYJ | Grell 3D | PD |
5 | LNE | RAP | Lin | MYN | Explicit | PD |
6 | LNG | RAP | Lin | MYN | Grell 3D | PD |
7 | FYE | RAP | Ferrier | YUS | Explicit | PD |
8 | FYF | RAP | Ferrier | YUS | Grell 3D | PD |
9 | FME | RAP | Ferrier | MYJ | Explicit | PD |
10 | FMG | RAP | Ferrier | MYJ | Grell 3D | PD |
11 | FNE | RAP | Ferrier | MYN | Explicit | PD |
12 | FNG | RAP | Ferrier | MYN | Grell 3D | PD |
13 | WSYE | RAP | WSM 6 | YUS | Explicit | PD |
14 | WSYG | RAP | WSM 6 | YUS | Grell 3D | PD |
15 | WSME | RAP | WSM 6 | MYJ | Explicit | PD |
16 | WSMG | RAP | WSM 6 | MYJ | Grell 3D | PD |
17 | WSNE | RAP | WSM 6 | MYN | Explicit | PD |
18 | WSNG | RAP | WSM 6 | MYN | Grell 3D | PD |
19 | TYE | RAP | Thompson | YUS | Explicit | PD |
20 | TYG | RAP | Thompson | YUS | Grell 3D | PD |
21 | TME | RAP | Thompson | MYJ | Explicit | PD |
22 | TMG | RAP | Thompson | MYJ | Grell 3D | PD |
23 | TNE | RAP | Thompson | MYN | Explicit | PD |
24 | TNG | RAP | Thompson | MYN | Grell 3D | PD |
25 | MYE | RAP | Morrison | YUS | Explicit | PD |
26 | MYG | RAP | Morrison | YUS | Grell 3D | PD |
27 | MME | RAP | Morrison | MYJ | Explicit | PD |
28 | MMG | RAP | Morrison | MYJ | Grell 3D | PD |
29 | MNE | RAP | Morrison | MYN | Explicit | PD |
30 | MNG | RAP | Morrison | MYN | Grell 3D | PD |
31 | MYEW | RAP | Morrison | YUS | Explicit | WENO |
32 | MYGW | RAP | Morrison | YUS | Grell 3D | WENO |
33 | MMEW | RAP | Morrison | MYJ | Explicit | WENO |
34 | MMGW | RAP | Morrison | MYJ | Grell 3D | WENO |
35 | MNEW | RAP | Morrison | MYN | Explicit | WENO |
36 | MNEG | RAP | Morrison | MYN | Grell 3D | WENO |
37 | WDYE | RAP | WDM 6 | YUS | Explicit | PD |
38 | WDYG | RAP | WDM 6 | YUS | Grell 3D | PD |
39 | WDME | RAP | WDM 6 | MYJ | Explicit | PD |
40 | WDMG | RAP | WDM 6 | MYJ | Grell 3D | PD |
41 | WDNE | RAP | WDM 6 | MYN | Explicit | PD |
42 | WDNG | RAP | WDM 6 | MYN | Grell 3D | PD |
43 | WDYEW | RAP | WDM 6 | YUS | Explicit | WENO |
44 | WDYGW | RAP | WDM 6 | YUS | Grell 3D | WENO |
45 | WDMEW | RAP | WDM 6 | MYJ | Explicit | WENO |
46 | WDMGW | RAP | WDM 6 | MYJ | Grell 3D | WENO |
47 | WDNEW | RAP | WDM 6 | MYN | Explicit | WENO |
48 | WDMGW | RAP | WDM 6 | MYN | Grell 3D | WENO |
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Kastman, J.; Market, P.; Fox, N. Dynamic Ensemble Analysis of Frontal Placement Impacts in the Presence of Elevated Thunderstorms during PRECIP Events. Atmosphere 2018, 9, 339. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9090339
Kastman J, Market P, Fox N. Dynamic Ensemble Analysis of Frontal Placement Impacts in the Presence of Elevated Thunderstorms during PRECIP Events. Atmosphere. 2018; 9(9):339. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9090339
Chicago/Turabian StyleKastman, Joshua, Patrick Market, and Neil Fox. 2018. "Dynamic Ensemble Analysis of Frontal Placement Impacts in the Presence of Elevated Thunderstorms during PRECIP Events" Atmosphere 9, no. 9: 339. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9090339