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Atmosphere 2018, 9(5), 188; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9050188

Extreme Precipitation Events in Serbia: Defining the Threshold Criteria for Emergency Preparedness

1
Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, 3 Studentski trg, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
2
Teacher Education Faculty, University of Belgrade, 43 Kraljice Natalije Street, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 1 March 2018 / Revised: 4 May 2018 / Accepted: 11 May 2018 / Published: 15 May 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Atmospheric Physics: Selected Papers from CEST2017)
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Abstract

Considering recent weather events in Serbia (especially the floods in 2014), a need has arisen for research that would help in identifying extreme weather phenomena. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to determine the thresholds above which intense precipitation can be considered as extreme precipitation events in Serbia. In this study, we determined the frequency of precipitation occurring at an intensity above the threshold of an extreme phenomenon (1961–2015), as well as the frequency of precipitation occurring at or above the absolute daily maximum in the reference period (1961–1990). The study sample included daily rainfall observations from 28 stations from the national meteorological network in Serbia. Applying a decile method, all the stations recording precipitation above the threshold of dangerous phenomena on the same day are classified into the corresponding decile. The threshold value was determined as the average value of the extreme annual precipitation in the analyzed period. The cases that are due to the high prevalence listed in the last decile are considered extreme. The results showed that the critical number of observation points above which an event is considered extreme precipitation event is 6.21, and a warning of the danger could be ensured only in the case of neighboring stations in the network. The threshold of extreme precipitation events for the individual stations ranges up to 130 mm. The obtained results might be used to mitigate the effects of extreme precipitation events in Serbia in the future. View Full-Text
Keywords: extreme precipitation; threshold; Serbia extreme precipitation; threshold; Serbia
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Anđelković, G.; Jovanović, S.; Manojlović, S.; Samardžić, I.; Živković, L.; Šabić, D.; Gatarić, D.; Džinović, M. Extreme Precipitation Events in Serbia: Defining the Threshold Criteria for Emergency Preparedness. Atmosphere 2018, 9, 188.

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