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Historical Trends and Variability in Heat Waves in the United Kingdom

Met Office, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
JBA Consulting, Skipton BD23 1FJ, UK
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2017, 8(10), 191;
Received: 9 August 2017 / Revised: 21 September 2017 / Accepted: 25 September 2017 / Published: 30 September 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Temperature Extremes and Heat/Cold Waves)
PDF [4759 KB, uploaded 11 October 2017]


Increases in numbers and lengths of heat waves have previously been identified in global temperature records, including locations within Europe. However, studies of changes in UK heat wave characteristics are limited. Historic daily maximum temperatures from 29 weather stations with records exceeding 85 years in length across the country were examined. Heat waves were defined as periods with unusually high temperatures for each station, even if the temperatures would not be considered warm in an absolute sense. Positive trends in numbers and lengths of heat waves were identified at some stations. However, for some stations in the south east of England, lengths of very long heat waves (over 10 days) had declined since the 1970s, whereas the lengths of shorter heat waves had increased slightly. Considerable multidecadal variability in heat wave numbers and lengths was apparent at all stations. Logistic regression, using a subset of eight stations with records beginning in the nineteenth century, suggested an association between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the variability in heat wave numbers and lengths, with the summertime North Atlantic Oscillation playing a smaller role. The results were robust against different temperature thresholds. View Full-Text
Keywords: heat waves; UK; climate variability; logistic regression; temperature; AMO; NAO heat waves; UK; climate variability; logistic regression; temperature; AMO; NAO

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Sanderson, M.G.; Economou, T.; Salmon, K.H.; Jones, S.E.O. Historical Trends and Variability in Heat Waves in the United Kingdom. Atmosphere 2017, 8, 191.

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