Fusing Multi-Source Data with Machine Learning for Ship Emission Calculation in Inland Waterways

Accurate estimation of ship emissions is essential for the effective enforcement of emission control policies in inland waterways. However, existing “bottom-up” models face significant challenges owing to severe data scarcity for inland ships, particularly regarding ship static parameters. This study proposes a novel data fusion and machine learning framework to address this issue. The methodology integrates real-time SO₂ and CO₂ pollutant concentrations on the Nanjing Dashengguan Yangtze River Bridge, Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, and meteorological information. To address the scarcity of design data for inland ships, web scraping was used to extract basic parameters, which were then used to train five machine learning models. Among them, the XGBoost model demonstrated superior performance in predicting the main engine rated power. A refined activity-based emission model combines these predicted parameters, ship operational profiles, and specific emission factors to calculate real-time emission source strengths. Furthermore, the model was validated against field measurements by comparing the calculated and measured emission source strengths from ships, demonstrating high predictive accuracy with R² values of 0.980 for SO₂ and 0.977 for CO₂, and MAPE below 13%. This framework provides a reliable and scalable approach for real-time emission monitoring and supports regulatory enforcement in inland waterways.