Forecasting ⁷Be Concentrations Using Time Series Analysis: A Case Study of Panama City

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

This study aimed to develop a robust explanatory and predictive model for 7Be concentrations in Panama using monthly data from 2006 to 2019 provided by the RN50 Station at the University of Panama. This study employed ARIMA models for time series analysis and forecasting, complemented by error metrics such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to assess the accuracy of the results. After verifying data suitability, analyzing series com-ponents, and testing stationarity using the Dickey–Fuller test, the SARIMA (2,0,1) (2,1,0) model was identified as optimal. This model successfully forecasted 7Be concentrations for the final five months of 2019, offering a useful tool for understanding airborne particle dynamics in Panama and supporting future applications of 7Be in the study and estima-tion of soil erosion. It is interesting and it is relevant and within the scope of the journal.

The paper has certain novelty and advantages for this field research work, and has value for publishing in the Journal. Therefore, I suggest that this paper be accepted with further modification.

 

1Figure 4. Please add an X-axis line,

2 line 253 that of [31], Suggest adding name

3 line 255 findings of [32], Suggest adding name

4 line 258 Conversely, [33]observed, Suggest adding name

5 line 266 with those of [12], Suggest adding name

6 Mathematical expression of ARIMA model

7There should be some new references.

Olivares-Salazar, S.E.; Bahreini, R.; Lin, Y.-H.; Castro, T.; Alvarez-Ospina, H.; Salcedo, D. Aerosol Composition in a Semi-Urban Environment in Central Mexico: Influence of Local and Regional Processes on Overall Composition and First Quantification of Nitroaromatics. Atmosphere 2025, 16, 827. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16070827

Benchrif, A.; Tahri, M.; Khalfaoui, O.; Baghdad, B.; Bounakhla, M.; Cachier, H. Aerosols in Northern Morocco (Part 4): Seasonal Chemical Signatures of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀. Atmosphere 2025, 16, 982. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16080982

The Characteristics of Air Quality Changes in Hohhot City in China and their Relationship with Meteorological and Socio-economic Factors. Aerosol and Air Quality Research. 2024.https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.230274

8. Through further proofreading, the quality of this article should be greatly improved.

Author Response

Please see the attachment

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 2 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

1. v. 38-39: please change “atmospheric nuclei of nitrogen oxygen, and carbon” to “nuclei of atmospheric nitrogen oxygen, and carbon”.
2. v. 43-44: “cosmic rays are deflected away from the solar system” - I don't think that's the point, please clarify.
3. The connection between 7Be content and erosion was not explained in the Introduction section. Therefore, the practical purpose of the research is unclear.
4. At the end of the Introduction section, please state the general scope of the research and the methods used - this will make reading the following sections easier.
5. 1. Data Description: The description of the analyzed data is too brief. Please describe the measurement location, the method of collecting and analyzing dust particle samples, and the method of averaging the results.
6. The error measures used: ME, RMSE, MAE, MPE, MAPE, MASE were not described. Subsection 2.3 with such a description should be added. (For example, how Figure 9 was obtained?)
7. There is no description of the 7Be concentration forecasting process. It is unclear what assumptions were made in the modeling, and therefore how to interpret approximation errors. This should be added to the Methods chapter.
8. Figure 2. Proper caption should be “Time series of 7Be from 2006 to 2019”. Change please.
9. Figure 2. Chart axes should have titles and measurement units. Please complete.
10. Figure 3. Chart axes should have titles and measurement units. Please complete.
11. How was the time series decomposition performed? The procedure was not described.
12. Figure 4. What does “By Frequency Unit” mean? Axes should have titles and measurement units. Please change and complete.
13. Figure 5. I assume the lag is measured in months. Please complete.

It's unclear what form the raw data took, how it was prepared for analysis, and how the forecasting was conducted. The presentation of the results is also not fully understandable. The article requires substantial additions and changes.

Author Response

Please see the attachment

Author Response File: Author Response.docx

Round 2

Reviewer 1 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

I am satisfied with the revisions of the manuscript by the authors and thus recommend accepting.

Reviewer 2 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

I would like to thank the Authors for proofreading the text. My comments have been taken into account. I believe that the submitted manuscript meets the standards for a scientific publication.

I would also like to request a minor correction regarding point 2: v. 43-46: I suggest reconsidering this passage. It seems to me that during periods of peak solar activity, the amount of cosmic rays reaching Earth increases. Rays emitted by the Sun are also cosmic rays.