Mapping Solar Future Perspectives of a Climate Change Hotspot: An In-Depth Study of Greece’s Regional Solar Energy Potential, Climatic Trends Influences and Insights for Sustainable Development

This study addresses the influence of clouds and aerosols on solar radiation and energy over Greece from September 2004 to August 2024. By leveraging Earth Observation data and radiative transfer models, the largest to date time series was constructed, in order to investigate the fluctuations in global horizontal irradiance, its rate of change, and the natural and anthropogenic factors that drive them. By incorporating simulation tools and appropriate calibration, the solar potential per region and the rate of change of the produced photovoltaic energy for 1 kWp were also quantified, highlighting the climatic effects on the production of solar energy. Additionally, two energy planning scenarios were explored: the first regarding the energy adequacy that each region can achieve, if a surface equal to 1% of its total area is covered with photovoltaics; and the latter estimating the necessary area covered with photovoltaics to fully meet each region’s energy demand. Finally, to ensure a solid and holistic approach, the research converted energy data into economic gains and avoided CO₂ emissions. The study is innovative, particularly for the Greek standards, in terms of the volume and type of information it provides. It is able to offer stakeholders and decision and policymakers, both in Greece and worldwide thanks to the use of open access data, invaluable insights regarding the impact of climate change on photovoltaic energy production, the optimization of photovoltaic installations and investments and the resulting financial and environmental benefits from proper and methodical energy planning.