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Article

Assessing Long-Term Post-Conflict Air Pollution: Trends and Implications for Air Quality in Mosul, Iraq

by
Zena Altahaan
1,* and
Daniel Dobslaw
2
1
Institute of Sanitary Engineering, Water Quality and Solid Waste Management, University of Stuttgart, D-70569 Stuttgart, Germany
2
Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning, University of Stuttgart, D-70569 Stuttgart, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2025, 16(7), 756; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16070756
Submission received: 2 April 2025 / Revised: 6 June 2025 / Accepted: 8 June 2025 / Published: 20 June 2025
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs): Characterization, Environmental Impacts and Control)
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Abstract

Prolonged conflicts in Iraq over the past four decades have profoundly disrupted environmental systems, not only through immediate post-conflict emissions—such as residues from munitions and explosives—but also via long-term infrastructural collapse, population displacement, and unsustainable resource practices. Despite growing concern over air quality in conflict-affected regions, comprehensive assessments integrating long-term data and localized measurements remain scarce. This study addresses this gap by analyzing the environmental consequences of sustained instability in Mosul, focusing on air pollution trends using both remote sensing data (1983–2023) and in situ monitoring of key pollutants—including PM2.5, PM10, TVOCs, NO2, SO2, and formaldehyde—at six urban sites during 2022–2023. The results indicate marked seasonal variations, with winter peaks in combustion-related pollutants (NO2, SO2) and elevated particulate concentrations in summer driven by sandstorm activity. Annual average concentrations of all six pollutants increased by 14–51%, frequently exceeding WHO air quality guidelines. These patterns coincide with worsening meteorological conditions, including higher temperatures, reduced rainfall, and more frequent storms, suggesting synergistic effects between climate stress and pollution. The findings highlight severe public health risks and emphasize the urgent need for integrated urban recovery strategies that promote sustainable infrastructure, environmental restoration, and resilience to climate change.

1. Introduction

Pollution and biodiversity loss [1,2], such as uranium contamination from anti-tank ammunition or the destruction of natural reserves due to explosions, are tolerated by warring parties as a byproduct of combat, with cascading impacts on public health. On the other hand, environmental degradation is also deliberately employed as a long-term strategy to weaken adversaries by rendering environments uninhabitable, thereby creating zones of strategic denial during withdrawals. Both short-term and long-term environmental impacts are particularly evident in the context of air pollution [3].
The combustion of fuels and propellants in military machinery—including aircraft, drones, autonomous artillery, armored vehicles, and explosives such as bombs, bullets, and missiles—substantially increases atmospheric concentrations of ammonia (NH3), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons, particulate matter (PM), and radionuclides [4,5,6]. These emissions are also associated with localized atmospheric warming [7].
During the first six weeks of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, for example, satellite data recorded average PM2.5 concentrations of 24.2 µg/m3—approximately 1.6 times the WHO’s 24 h recommended limit [8]. Ground-based measurements in Kyiv revealed concentrations reaching as high as 300 µg/m3 [9]. In addition to PM2.5, emissions of NO2, CO, O3, and SO2 surged in eastern Ukraine, where hostilities were most intense. Nationwide SO2 emissions rose by 38.06%, and in Crimea, they more than doubled due to targeted military attacks and the destruction of fuel storage facilities [9]. Although some of these pollutants contribute to long-term climate change [10], their immediate environmental effects are often driven by deposition processes and atmospheric chemical reactions [11].
In contrast, the long-term consequences of war on environmental quality are far more pervasive. Structural damage to buildings, energy and water infrastructure, and transportation systems—combined with mass displacement, rapid urbanization, and weakened environmental governance—contribute to persistent pollution and ecological degradation [8]. These post-conflict conditions often lead to chronic traffic congestion [12], a reliance on decentralized and inefficient energy generators, open fires for heating and cooking, and the resumption of poorly regulated industrial activity. These developments result in significant increases in PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, and total volatile organic compound (TVOC) emissions [13]. Their health impacts—especially on respiratory systems—are well-documented [14] and place severe strain on fragile healthcare infrastructures [3,15].
The accumulation and dispersion of air pollutants in war-affected urban areas are influenced by physical and geographical variables, including temperature, humidity, wind speed, topography (e.g., basins, coastal plains), and energy demand patterns [16,17,18].
Our earlier studies [14,19,20,21] have shown that the city of Mosul is a representative example of such post-conflict environmental degradation. Despite its liberation from ISIS, Mosul continues to face severe environmental and infrastructural challenges—reflecting Iraq’s broader political instability. Since its independence, Iraq has endured 40 years of conflict, including four coups, ten wars, insurgencies, and genocidal campaigns [22]. The country’s infrastructure remains in ruins, and despite its oil wealth, the population faces poverty, deforestation, and fuel shortages. A worsening water crisis since the 2000s has further strained Iraq’s food and water security and accelerated desertification [23,24].
Due to the scale of destruction and economic hardship, Iraq lacks a comprehensive ground-based air quality monitoring system. Therefore, satellite remote sensing is essential for environmental assessment. For instance, NASA’s Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) recorded a clear upward trend in NO2 concentrations over Iraq between 2005 and 2021 (see Figure 1)—even after accounting for seasonal variability [25].
During the ISIS war, which afflicted the city of Mosul between 2014 and 2017, the city experienced severe air pollution due to increased atmospheric emissions from various sources, both during and in the aftermath of the conflict [14]. One major contributing factor was the growing dependence on decentralized energy sources—a legacy of the post-Gulf War period—that intensified significantly following widespread power outages caused by the conflict.
As a result, the number of decentralized electricity generators rose sharply from a pre-war level of 1347 to over 2300 in the post-war period. In addition to the lack of a reliable central power grid, a massive influx of internally displaced persons (IDPs) effectively doubled the city’s population, leading to a substantial increase in electricity demand. This demographic surge also triggered a dramatic rise in vehicle numbers—from 316,734 before the war to approximately 800,000 in recent years [26].
The aim of this study is to evaluate the long-term impact of warfare on air quality in the city of Mosul following the ISIS conflict in 2017, as well as during preceding wars. This assessment was conducted through the collection of data over two consecutive years (2022 and 2023), focusing on key air pollutants, including PM2.5, PM10, TVOCs, formaldehyde (HCHO), NO2, and SO2. Annual increase rates for these pollutants were calculated, and a detailed statistical analysis was performed to examine both seasonal and annual variations in concentration levels, along with their correlation to meteorological conditions.
To provide historical context, the study compared current findings with pre-war pollution data from Al-Jarrah [27] and, where possible, contrasted them with values reported during earlier conflicts. In the absence of reliable ground-based data, satellite observations covering the period from 1983 to 2023 were utilized to support the assessment of long-term war-related impacts on air pollution.
Furthermore, pollutant concentrations were compared to WHO threshold values to assess potential public health implications [28]. The study also quantified the indirect consequences of ongoing conflicts on urban air quality and estimated pollutant trends using extrapolative analysis. Ultimately, the goal is to generate actionable insights that support policymakers and stakeholders in formulating effective strategies to reduce air pollution and safeguard public health in conflict-affected environments.
Atmosphere 16 00756 g001
Figure 1. OMI tropospheric NO2 concentration chart of Mosul between 2005 and 2021 as monthly average values [29].
Figure 1. OMI tropospheric NO2 concentration chart of Mosul between 2005 and 2021 as monthly average values [29].
Atmosphere 16 00756 g001

2. Methodology

2.1. Atmospheric Data

Atmospheric data during the study period were obtained from the measurement data of various orbital satellites, as shown in Table 1. The following satellites were used for data collection:
  • Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI): This is a nadir-observing visual and ultraviolet spectrometer installed on the Aura satellite, which is part of the A-Train satellite group. The OMI measures the UV/VIS radiation reflected in the atmosphere (270–500 nm) with a high spatial resolution of 13 km × 24 km and measures the atmospheric concentration of these components via the absorption of gas-specific wavelengths. It is equipped for the detection of the air pollutants O3, SO2, NO2, HCHO, BrO, and ClO2 [28,29]. The data obtained before 2004 (launch date) are based on the ESA instruments GOME and SCIAMACHY and the NASA instrument TOMS, which are, however, spectrophotometers with lower resolution, higher wavenumber, and a narrower optical spectrum.
  • Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS): CAMS provides continuous data and information on the atmospheric composition of the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4. It is part of the European Union’s Earth observation program, Copernicus. CAMS utilizes global reanalysis models to deliver high-quality, comprehensive information about the state of the atmosphere, including air quality, greenhouse gases, and solar radiation. This data is crucial for understanding environmental and climate changes, supporting policymaking, and benefiting various applications such as public health and renewable energy.
  • Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA): The Version 2 of MERRA (MERRA-2) reanalyzes previous satellite data from NASA and implements them into the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Earth system model. Air components like PM, O3, and SO2, but also dimethyl sulfide (DMS), monoterpenes, and methanesulfonic acid, can be quantified. Due to this enhanced model, aerosol–atmosphere interactions and the impact of ice processes are included, enabling the observation of long-term trends of atmospheric contamination and derivable environmental impacts [30].
  • Sentinel-5 Precursor (Sentinel-5P): An Earth observation satellite launched by ESA in 2017 with the TROPOMI multi-channel spectrometer for recording the atmospheric pollution of O3, NO2, CO, HCHO, SO2, and CH4, as well as the atmospheric aerosol content, with a UV/VIS measuring range of 270–775 nm and an IR window of 2305–2385 nm. The IR window can also be used to measure the stretching oscillation of the C-H bond of VOCs [31].
  • Calipso: Calipso is one of the five Earth observation satellites of the A-Train and has a telescope for observing vertical cloud structures, as well as an associated Imaging Infrared Radiometer (IIR), which measures in the range of 8–12 µm and can therefore also measure aerosols and dust [32].
  • Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS): MODIS is a spectroradiometer used by NASA on the two satellites Terra and Aqua and can cover 36 spectral bands from 0.4 to 14.4 µm, allowing geodynamic processes such as changes in cloud coverage or the radiation budget to be observed with a resolution of 250–1000 m. Hence, it can be used for the quantification of PM [33].
  • Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR): EDGAR reveals global emission sources for short-lived gaseous hydrocarbons and complements the ongoing large-scale efforts to monitor inorganic pollutants based on orbital satellite data. It is therefore suitable as a data source and for the evaluation of VOC emissions [34].
  • Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2): As heir of GOME on ERS-2 and SCIAMACHY on Envisat, GOME-2 operates as a long-term atmospheric monitoring system to detect O3, NO2, SO2, and other trace gases with a resolution of 80 × 40 km [35].
  • Advanced Very-High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR/3): Similar to MODIS, the AVHRR/3 is a nadir-observing spectroradiometer, but emits and reflects visible and near-IR light at 0.58–12.5 µm. It reveals an extremely high spatial resolution of 1.1 × 1.1 km and can be used to detect the mentioned contaminants of interest [36].
  • Goddard Earth Observing System Atmospheric Chemistry Model (GEOS-Chem): GEOS-Chem is a 3D model of oxidative atmospheric chemistry and transport phenomena based on meteorological data of the Goddard Earth Observing System with a 25 km × 25 km resolution. It is a strong tool to interpret atmospheric aerosol data from different time intervals and locations [37].
  • Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS): VIIRS was launched in 2011 by the S-NPP satellite. It collects VIS and IR imagery of land, atmosphere, cryosphere, and oceans at spectral bands of 0.600–0.680 µm, 3.55–3.93 µm, and 10.5–12.4 µm at a maximum resolution of 0.375 km, and is used for the observation of snow coverage, sea ice data, and fire data [38].
The differences, resolutions, and reliability of all satellite collections are shown in Table 2.

2.2. Ground Monitoring Stations for Air Quality

In 2022 and 2023, six measuring points were operated in the urban area of Mosul. These are specified in Table 3 and Figure 2. Three sites are located on the left bank of the river and thus in the western part of the city (particularly affected by fighting), and three sites are located on the right bank of the river.

2.3. Measuring Method

Only portable measuring devices were used for the on-site determination of air quality parameters. In detail, a Dräger X-am 8000 (Drägerwerk AG & Co. KGaA, Lübeck, Germany), was used for the measurement of NO2 and SO2 with a gas-dependent accuracy of ±2–5% (gas-dependent), automatic drift compensation, full calibration intervals of 1–6 months, and a margin of error of ±3–5% (optimal conditions). An AQI AX-8016 multifunctional air detector Shenzhen AQI Technology Co., Ltd., Shenzhen, China), for PM2.5, PM10, formaldehyde, and TVOCs was used for quantification of air contaminants. Additionally, a GT8907 mobile weather station with an anemometer and data logger (Shenzhen Jumaoyuan Science and Technology Co. Ltd., Shenzhen, China) was used for the logging of meteorological data. The logger was read out by the BENETECH software (HL7 version 3.4), to determine the meteorological parameters of wind speed, wind direction, temperature, and humidity. All equipment was freshly calibrated in the lab before the measurement campaigns, and signal output was cross-checked with common lab devices. The measurement data at all locations were recorded at 10 min intervals, with three individual datasets being summarized as half-hourly averages, i.e., 9 datasets per site and test day. The measurements took place over 8 h (10 a.m.–6 p.m.) on 3 specific days at each site per month between January 2022 and December 2023, and were limited to day-time analytics due to theft concerns. In total, 648 datasets per site were collected, covering all contaminants and meteorological data.

2.4. Data Cleaning and Preprocessing

1.
All raw data collected from monitoring devices were screened for missing values, duplicate entries, and outliers. Data entries outside the expected sensor range were flagged.
2.
Obvious outliers caused by instrument malfunctions or environmental anomalies (e.g., sensor overheating, power failure) were excluded based on statistical thresholds (e.g., 3 standard deviations from the mean).
3.
Gaps in data shorter than 1 h were filled using linear interpolation, while longer gaps were left blank to avoid introducing bias.
4.
The cleaned dataset was cross-validated with known meteorological conditions (e.g., sandstorm dates) and manually reviewed for consistency.

2.5. Air Quality Index (AQI)

As air pollutants are generated by different emission sources, they sometimes act in a contradictory way, which makes interpretation difficult. The US EPA’s Air Quality Index is a tried and tested approach that weights emissions on the basis of the human toxicological effects of air pollutants and provides a simple sum parameter for evaluation. This methodology was previously described in detail [14]. The hourly and daily maximum AQI values derived by the WHO are summarized in Table 4.

3. Results and Discussion

3.1. Selection of High-Impact Years

As shown, Iraq has been at war for 40 of its 67 years of existence. Considering the impact of war on Iraq air quality, the following selection of years is of high interest, which is why the discussion of air contaminant levels focuses on these years or adjacent time periods (see Table 5).

3.2. Particulate Matter (PM2.5; PM10)

As a consequence of war, particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) is released into the atmosphere through the destruction of buildings, vehicles, industrial facilities, and natural areas, as well as the resulting fires. Additionally, the direct use of ammunition and bullets contributes to these emissions. With the escalating destruction, further dust emissions are generated by the population through the use of inefficient generators and open, improvised cooking stoves fueled by wood and other materials. Moreover, the ongoing desertification of the region due to deforestation contributes to a long-term increase in this emission category.
From a chemical perspective, besides mineral dusts such as silicates, sulfates, nitrates, and ammonium salts, these emissions particularly include heavy metals—such as lead, mercury, cadmium, arsenic, and uranium—which are primarily released from ammunition, armor-piercing rounds, and possibly nuclear weapons, in addition to materials from building structures [39]. The use of radioactive uranium further results in the presence of radioactive decay isotopes such as cesium-137 and iodine-129 [40,41]. In addition to the aforementioned mineral dusts, volatile organic compounds, such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), are also present, which may act either as particulate matter themselves or as condensation nuclei.
The atmospheric measurement data of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations in Mosul since 1983 clearly demonstrate the direct effects of warfare (e.g., weapons usage and direct destruction), as well as indirect effects (e.g., elevated emissions due to destroyed supply infrastructure and population displacement) (see Table 6 and Table 7 and Figure 3 and Figure 4) [42]. Starting from an initial monthly average PM2.5 concentration of 40–60 µg/m3, levels steadily increased following the Second and Third Gulf Wars, as well as the political instability that persisted from 2004 to 2017, during which intense fighting occurred around Mosul. In addition to these long-term emissions, additional direct emissions caused a historic peak in 2017. However, after the defeat of ISIS and the implementation of COVID-19 restrictions in 2020, emissions declined by 50–60 µg/m3 to between 80 and 120 µg/m3 due to lockdown measures. In 2021, a COVID-19 rebound effect was observed, alongside demolition activities and new industrial construction, which led to emissions increasing again by approximately 20 µg/m3, reaching levels of around 95–135 µg/m3 (see Figure 3).
The years 2022 and 2023 were marked by a series of sandstorms, subsequent heatwaves, and severe water shortages. Combined with advancing desertification, these factors caused a further rise in dust emissions. Comparable findings regarding the impact of heatwaves, water scarcity, and progressive desertification have been documented in multiple countries across the region [43,44,45,46,47,48].
Because PM10 includes the PM2.5 fraction, similar trends are evident. The absolute PM10 concentration began at 120–150 µg/m3 in 1983, peaked between 380 and 500 µg/m3 in 2017, and rose again to approximately 290–380 µg/m3 in 2023 following a pandemic-related reduction from 250 to 320 µg/m3 (see Figure 4).
Table 7. Atmospheric PM10 levels as annual average values of the Mosul region and data sources.
Table 7. Atmospheric PM10 levels as annual average values of the Mosul region and data sources.
Year PM10 (µg/m3) Notes
1983 120–150 Low accuracy due to reanalysis MERRA-2 (GMAO, 2015) [49]
2002 180–220 Impacted by Gulf War effects MERRA-2 (GMAO, 2015) [49]
2014 300–400 Peak due to ISIS conflict MERRA-2 (GMAO, 2015) + MODIS [49,50]
2015 320–420 Continued conflict; dust storms MERRA-2 (GMAO, 2015) + CAMS [49,51]
2016 350–450 Fall of Mosul MERRA-2 (GMAO, 2015) [49]
2017 380–500 Post-liberation debris removal MERRA-2 (GMAO, 2015) + Ground (Ministry of Environment, 2017) [49,52]
2018 300–400 Partial stabilization MERRA-2 (GMAO, 2015) [49]
2019 280–360 Drought-induced dust storms MERRA-2 (GMAO, 2015) + MODIS [49,50,51]
2020 250–320 COVID-19 lockdowns MERRA-2 (GMAO, 2015) [49]
2021 270–350 Post-lockdown rebound MERRA-2 (GMAO, 2015) [49]
2022 290–370 Regional dust events MERRA-2 (GMAO, 2015) + CAMS [49,51]
2023 290–380 Ongoing dust/pollution MERRA-2 (GMAO, 2015) [49]
The results of ground-level dust measurements in 2022 indicate monthly mean concentrations ranging from 12.3 to 107.5 µg/m3 for PM2.5 and 19.0 to 521.0 µg/m3 for PM10, varying by measurement site (see Table 8). The calculated annual mean concentrations across all locations were 38.8 µg/m3 for PM2.5 and 192.1 µg/m3 for PM10, exceeding the World Health Organization (WHO) annual guideline values by factors of 7.7 and 12.8, respectively [8]. The highest individual values for both particulate classes were recorded in May, while the lowest occurred in January. This pattern is attributable to the spring thunderstorm phase and enhanced dust deposition during the wet winter season due to wet deposition processes. The monthly average data for 2022 are presented in Table 8.
Measurements from 2023 revealed monthly average PM2.5 concentrations between 18.2 and 137 µg/m3, and PM10 concentrations ranging from 39.2 to 416.7 µg/m3. The corresponding annual mean concentrations of 48.3 µg/m3 (PM2.5) and 216.3 µg/m3 (PM10) represent exceedances of the WHO guideline values by factors of 9.7 and 13.3, respectively (see Table 9). Comparing the two years, an increase of approximately 13–25% in both dust fractions is observed. Table 10 and Figure 5 illustrate that, despite comparable standard deviations and thus variability in monthly mean values, there is a statistically significant rise in PM2.5 concentrations from 2022 to 2023. The distributions of the 25th, 50th (median), and 75th percentiles are elevated in 2023, indicating a shift toward higher dust concentrations (see Table 10).
Peak PM2.5 concentrations were measured in April and May, with similar trends observed for the PM10 fraction. The association with seasonal factors—such as pollen counts—and meteorological parameters—such as precipitation amount and distribution—is evident but cannot be definitively established. Notably, April 2023 was characterized by an extended precipitation phase (from April 9 to April 14, including heavy rainfall on April 12) with a total precipitation of 83.9 mm, which resulted in comparatively lower monthly average dust concentrations (PM2.5: 44.3 vs. 62 µg/m3; PM10: 113.0 vs. 231.3 µg/m3 compared to April 2022). Despite relatively lower precipitation levels in May 2023 (35.6 mm), dust concentrations remained below those recorded in May 2022 (PM2.5: 64.0 vs. 107.0 µg/m3; PM10: 416.7 vs. 521 µg/m3) [53]. It is important to highlight that Mosul experienced a multi-day sandstorm in May 2022, which substantially elevated dust concentrations well above the long-term monthly average.
Despite these lower springtime emission levels in 2023 compared to 2022—and notwithstanding the dust storm in May 2022—the annual average dust emissions increased. This trend underscores the progressing water scarcity and desertification in the region [54,55,56,57]. The total annual precipitation in 2023, which fell below the long-term average, further supports this conclusion. Additionally, the average annual temperature in Mosul rose from 19.4 °C in the 1950s to 21.1 °C in the 2010s [58], contributing to increased evaporation rates alongside reduced precipitation. Collectively, these factors highlight the local manifestations of regional and global climate change.
Superimposed on these climatological influences, vehicular traffic—and consequently traffic-related emissions—in Mosul have also increased within the same period [59,60,61].

3.3. Total Volatile Organic Compounds (TVOCs)

Various studies have demonstrated that volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions resulting directly from the firing of ammunition and explosives are generally very low. For instance, an assessment conducted by Szostak and Cleare revealed that VOC emissions generated during firing training at Camp Grant, Illinois, accounted for approximately 0.1% of the total air pollutant emissions, quantified at around 5.5 tons per year [62]. For comparison, the authors noted that annual VOC emissions in urban conurbations are approximately four times higher. The analysis of the emitted compounds identified the release of short-chain alkenes—indicative of incomplete combustion, particularly ethylene and acetylene—alongside propylene, benzene, toluene, and numerous unidentified aromatic and alkane compounds [62]. Subsequent studies by Aurell and colleagues expanded the spectrum of detected emissions to include methane, acrolein, and a broad group of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), specifically naphthenes, pyrenes, acenaphthylenes, and phenanthrenes [63,64,65]. Detailed analyses of benzene, a key compound, indicated higher emissions from detonation compared to the open burning of explosives (89–264 mg/kg versus 2.5–4.7 mg/kg) [63,64]. Consequently, direct war-related VOC emissions are considered to have minor environmental significance.
Conversely, indirect war-related VOC emissions warrant greater attention. The widespread use of decentralized generators for energy and heat supply, characterized by low exhaust purification efficiency, combined with a significant increase in vehicular traffic, has substantially altered VOC emission profiles.Due to prolonged conflict and limited opportunities to repair infrastructure damage, historical atmospheric VOC concentration evaluations reveal a steady increase from 80–120 µg/m3 to 150–300 µg/m3 during the 1990s (see Figure 6, Table 11) [66]. During the relatively stable 2000s—despite the brief 2003 Third Gulf War—partial infrastructure rebuilding and reduced refugee flows contributed to decreased VOC concentrations, ranging from 100 to 200 µg/m3. However, the onset of civil war in 2011, the occupation of Mosul in 2014, and its subsequent liberation in 2017 precipitated a threefold increase in VOC emissions to 400–600 µg/m3 within a few years [67]. The COVID-19 lockdown measures and reconstruction of critical infrastructure in subsequent years resulted in reduced VOC emissions between 200 and 350 µg/m3, but levels were still approximately three times higher than the levels recorded in the baseline year of 1983 [68].
It should be noted that VOC emissions, predominantly comprising PAHs that persist near ground level as condensable particles, are best suited to long-term trend analyses through large-scale observations. A high-resolution, ground-level perspective reveals additional factors influencing VOC emissions, including localized war damage necessitating the use of generators, and seasonal variations. For example, six analytical sites in Mosul recorded annual average total VOC (TVOC) concentrations ranging from 0.25 to 3.37 mg/m3 in 2022, with an overall average of 1.33 mg/m3 across all sites. This spatial differentiation corresponds to a thirteenfold variation, underscoring the need for localized assessment when implementing appropriate mitigation strategies. Even the comparative annual mean across all locations surpasses the WHO guideline by a factor of 2.6 [69].
Given that cooking, heating, and electricity generation are major sources of TVOC emissions, the highest concentrations—exceeding guideline limits—were observed during winter and the rainy season, while atmospheric TVOC levels declined with rising temperatures from May to August, occasionally falling below WHO limits. The highest annual mean TVOC concentration was measured in January at 3.38 mg/m3, and the lowest in June at 0.25 mg/m3, with the WHO 24 h limit exceeded only sporadically on individual days. A similar pattern was observed in 2023, where annual mean TVOC values at individual monitoring sites ranged between 0.37 and 3.79 mg/m3, with the annual mean value across all sites reaching 1.75 mg/m3, exceeding the WHO annual guideline value by a factor of 3.4 [8]. A closer view reveals permanent exceedance of the WHO value from January to April and September to December. The highest level was reached in January at 3.79 mg/m3, while the lowest one was reached in May at 0.37 mg/m3 (see Table 7 and Table 8).
The comparison of the measured values for 2022 vs. 2023 shows that there was also a general increase in TVOCs of 13–48% at the mid-month level and approx. 32% at the mid-year level, although the relative standard deviation in 2023 increased by approx. 8% compared to 2022 (1.19 vs. 1.10). In the best-case scenario, TVOC emissions therefore increased by approx. 24% within one year. This statement is underlined by the associated concentration levels at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles, which are consistently higher in 2023 and thus underline a shift towards higher TVOC values, with the highest one during the cold season (see Table 10).
Table 11. Atmospheric TVOC levels as annual average values of the Mosul region.
Table 11. Atmospheric TVOC levels as annual average values of the Mosul region.
Year Range Estimated TVOC Range (µg/m3) Data Source/Method Key Events Influencing TVOC Levels
1983–1990 80–120 Proxy: NO2/aerosol models [70] + ground reports [71] Iran–Iraq War; industrial emissions
1991–2000 150–300 NOAA/AVHRR burned area [72] Gulf War oil fires; massive VOC release
2001–2010 100–200 Aura/OMI HCHO trends [73] Post-invasion decline; sporadic industrial activity
2011–2014 200–U350 MODIS fire data [74] + conflict studies [4]Pre-ISIS instability; increased oil smuggling [75]
2015–2017 400–600 Sentinel-5P [76] + CALIPSO aerosols [77]ISIS occupation; refinery fires [14]
2018–2020 250–400 Sentinel-5P HCHO [78] + ground reports [78]Post-liberation cleanup; reduced burning [79]
2021–2023 200–350 Hybrid models: TROPOMI [78] + [80] ground models Reconstruction phase; traffic and construction emissions [81]

3.4. Formaldehyde (HCHO)

Formaldehyde emissions occur both as direct war-related emissions [39,82] and as indirect war-related emissions resulting from incomplete combustion processes in generators and power plants [83], as well as from transportation sources [84,85]. Consequently, increased emissions are expected due to hostilities, war-induced infrastructure destruction, and the associated rise in refugee movements.
This expectation is corroborated by atmospheric measurements, which show emission peaks between 1.00 and 1.50 mg/m3 during the period 2015–2017, rising from initial values of 0.25–0.40 mg/m3, followed by a decline to 0.60–1.00 mg/m3 in subsequent years attributed to reconstruction efforts, paralleling the trends observed for total VOCs (TVOCs). Similarly, a moderate decrease in formaldehyde concentrations can be observed during the politically relatively stable 2000s (see Figure 7, Table 12). The concentration trends for formaldehyde and TVOCs are nearly identical, with increases by factors of 2.4–2.5 (minimum values) and 2.5–2.9 (maximum values), suggesting that both compounds are predominantly emitted from the same sources, namely transportation and combustion processes related to heat and energy production. Despite increases in vehicle emissions (registration data indicating a 4.5% rise) and population growth (7.0%) between 2017 and 2020 [85,86], these factors alone cannot explain the observed emission decreases, indicating the initial success of emission reduction efforts.
Nevertheless, formaldehyde concentrations ranging from 0.05 to 0.83 mg/m3 at all monitored locations exceeded the WHO guideline limit. Focusing on the 2022 annual average across all sites (0.325 mg/m3), the WHO limit was exceeded by a factor of 3.8 [4]. Interestingly, despite formaldehyde’s high water solubility and potential for wet deposition acting as an emission sink, significant exceedances predominantly occurred during the rainy season (September–March). In contrast, no exceedances were recorded during the hot summer months (April–August), when emission values were notably low. Formaldehyde emissions rose again in September and October, which are characterized by hot daytime temperatures but cool nights. Additionally, September days are approximately one hour shorter than those in August, increasing electricity demand for lighting. Since UV-induced formaldehyde formation dominates over atmospheric degradation processes [87], but observed concentrations declined during this period, it suggests that emissions are strongly influenced by heating and electricity consumption behaviors. Therefore, war-related emissions must be considered within the context of spatial variation relative to conflict zones.
In 2023, annual mean formaldehyde concentrations at individual sites ranged from 0.07 to 0.92 mg/m3, with an average value of 0.44 mg/m3, exceeding the WHO limit by a factor of 4.4 [4]. Again, exceedances occurred consistently during the wetter months, while the hot and dry months (May–August) showed no limit violations. Seasonal monthly mean values varied by a factor of 13, ranging from 0.07 mg/m3 in June 2023 to 0.92 mg/m3 in January 2023. This seasonal variation is attributed to an increased use of domestic heating, electricity generators, and vehicle traffic during less favorable weather and colder winter conditions [27,68,88].
A direct comparison between 2022 and 2023 revealed an increase in formaldehyde levels from 0.325 mg/m3 to 0.44 mg/m3, with the 25th, 50th (median), and 75th percentiles showing consistently higher and comparable standard deviations (0.29 vs. 0.32; see Table 10). Thus, formaldehyde emissions further underscore the progressive deterioration in air quality in the urban environment.
Table 12. Atmospheric HCHO levels as annual average values of the Mosul region in key time periods of the last 4 decades.
Table 12. Atmospheric HCHO levels as annual average values of the Mosul region in key time periods of the last 4 decades.
Year Range HCHO Range (mg/m3) Data Source/MethodKey Events/Drivers
1983–1990 0.25–0.40 Proxy: NO2/aerosol models [89] + ground reports [71] Iran–Iraq War; industrial/vehicle emissions.
1991–2000 0.50–0.75 Proxy: Post-Gulf War oil fires (MODIS: [50], ASTER: [90])Gulf War oil fires (1991); massive HCHO release [91].
2001–2010 0.40–0.60 Satellite: Aura/OMI HCHO trends [92] Post-invasion decline; sporadic industrial activity.
2011–2014 0.60–0.90 Satellite: OMI [92] + MODIS fire data [90] Pre-ISIS instability; oil smuggling and flaring.
2015–2017 1.00–1.50 Satellite: OMI [92] + CALIPSO aerosols [77]ISIS occupation; refinery sabotage [93].
2018–2020 0.75–1.10 Satellite: Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI [31] Post-liberation cleanup; reduced burning.
2021–2023 0.60–1.00 Satellite: TROPOMI [31] + ground models [73]Rebuilding; traffic, construction [81].

3.5. Nitrogene Dioxide NO2

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a combustion-related pollutant whose atmospheric concentration is primarily influenced by traffic density. Accordingly, the observed increase in vehicle registrations in Iraq, from 2.18 million in 2005 to 4.72 million in 2020—a growth factor of approximately 2.2 [85]—is reflected in a corresponding rise in ambient NO2 levels. Although detailed data from earlier periods are limited, the available satellite-based records indicate an initial concentration range of 8–12 µg/m3 in 1983, followed by a steady increase until 2000. A subsequent decline to near baseline levels of 10–15 µg/m3 occurred during the mid-2000s, coinciding with a phase of relative political stability characterized by reduced conflict-related displacement and migration. However, levels rose again in response to increasing industrial activity in the late 2000s and early 2010s.
By 2011, vehicle registrations had increased by a factor of 1.5 since 2005, reaching approximately 3.07 million, which correlated with NO2 concentrations peaking at 20–30 µg/m3. The occupation of large parts of the country by ISIS from 2012 onwards led to a collapse of economic activity and a marked reduction in traffic volumes, causing NO2 levels to revert to baseline reference values. Intensified military operations and the resulting refugee movements until 2017 contributed to another increase in emissions. Although the COVID-19 lockdown caused a temporary decline, NO2 concentrations rebounded to levels comparable to those of 2011, ranging between 18 and 29 µg/m3, coinciding with the onset of economic recovery and a gradual decrease in conflict-related traffic (see Figure 8, Table 13).
In Mosul, a generally high traffic density is evident, amplified significantly by refugee movements that effectively doubled the number of vehicles. This situation results in substantial exceedances of the World Health Organization (WHO) limit for NO2 throughout the year. The annual mean NO2 concentration across all monitoring sites was 50.58 µg/m3, exceeding the WHO guideline by a factor of 5.1 [8]. Monthly data offer additional insights, revealing a clear seasonal pattern characterized by maximum concentrations during winter months and lower values in summer. This seasonality is attributable to increased traffic volumes during adverse weather conditions and secondary emissions from energy-generating sources. Accordingly, the highest monthly means in the analyzed years occurred in January (106 µg/m3 in 2022 and 114.8 µg/m3 in 2023), while the lowest were recorded in July (29.3 µg/m3 in 2022 and 27.8 µg/m3 in 2023). The overall annual mean across all sites rose to 57.58 µg/m3 in 2023, exceeding the WHO target by a factor of 5.8.
Both satellite and ground-based measurements indicate a sharp increase in NO2 emissions during the latter years of conflict, attributable primarily to decentralized electricity and heating sources, the doubling of traffic volume, and consequences of military operations such as fires at oil and sulfur wells and storage facilities, as well as the use of weapons and explosives. These findings align with numerous prior studies [9,94,95] and are consistent with recent observations from the conflict in Ukraine [9], underscoring the synergistic effects of direct and indirect warfare-related emissions.
Despite an increase of nearly 20% in the standard deviation of ground-level NO2 measurements from 25.29 µg/m3 in 2022 to 29.32 µg/m3 in 2023—reflecting greater variability, especially during extreme months—the 25th, 50th (median), and 75th percentiles consistently showed increased emission levels in 2023 relative to 2022. Once again, cold months dominated the overall emission levels (see Table 10).

3.6. Sulfur Dioxide SO2

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is emitted during the combustion of sulfur-containing materials and has a significant impact on acid rain formation. Accordingly, substantial efforts are directed toward the desulfurization of technically processed fuels used in both power plants and the transportation sector [96]. However, in crisis regions, such accessibility is often limited, particularly in countries possessing their own fossil fuel deposits. In Iraq generally, and Mosul specifically, SO2 serves as an indicator of emissions originating from the transportation, energy, industrial, and residential sectors (indirect war-related emissions). In contrast, the Gulf Wars and especially the conflict against ISIS led to recurring ignitions of oil wells and sulfur deposits, causing a considerable increase in atmospheric SO2 concentrations (direct war-related emissions).
Both emission types are reflected in SO2 concentration trends. Starting from levels of 1.35–3.23 µg/m3 during the 1980s, a sharp increase to 5.38–12.11 µg/m3 is observed at the onset of the Second Gulf War (see Figure 9). This level decreased during the interwar period but surged again to concentrations between 10.76 and 21.52 µg/m3 during the ISIS conflict. In the post-war period, concentrations initially halved but have recently exhibited an upward trend even during non-conflict periods. This increase—from 1.35–3.23 µg/m3 in the 1980s to 8.07–13.45 µg/m3 in the 2020s—reflects predominant war-related infrastructure damage and thus indirect war effects.
The latter is largely driven by Iraq’s limited refinery capacity to process crude oil into high-quality fuels. Iraqi crude oil is classified as sour crude, characterized by a high sulfur content ranging from 2.10% to 4.01% by weight [97]. These authors reported sulfur concentrations in the final products from nine of Iraq’s sixteen oil refineries ranging between 100 and 500 ppm for gasoline and 1000 and 3000 ppm for kerosene. In comparison, sulfur limits for these fuels in the USA and Europe are set at 10 ppm each [98].
Consequently, a continuous rise in atmospheric SO2 concentrations is expected, driven by increasing traffic volumes and a higher consumption of heating and energy generation, especially given the significant population growth (see Figure 9, Table 14).
This outlined trend was also confirmed in the ground-level measurements. The annual mean value for SO2 at all individual locations was in the range of 12.0–35.5 µg/m3, with a cross-location mean value of 21.8 µg/m3. Although all sites complied with the WHO limit value of 40 µg/m3 as a monthly average in 2022, emissions in January came very close to this value at 35.5 µg/m3. Due to the link between SO2 emissions and fuels, this maximum emission occurred, as expected, in the cool season, while the emission level was lowest in the hot season of August at 12 µg/m3. Comparable seasonal trends have already been documented several times [102,103].
While the limit value was still adhered to in 2022, the WHO limit value was exceeded for the first time in 2023 in peacetime, with monthly mean values of 45.7 µg/m3 (January 2023) and 45.83 µg/m3 (February 2023). As expected, levels dropped down as the weather became warmer and reached the lowest value of this year at 16.3 µg/m3 in July 2023.
A comparison of the annual mean values across all sites for the two years shows that these rose from 21.87 µg/m3 (2022) to 25.52 µg/m3 (2023), an increase of almost 17%, see Table 15 .Here, too, the standard deviation rose to 9.60 µg/m3 (2023) compared to 7.20 µg/m3 (2022), which makes it difficult to derive the effective increase. Nevertheless, an increase in emissions of at least 1.3 µg/m3 within one year can be assumed, as this calculated increase is reflected in the trends of the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles for the years 2022 and 2023, where values for the last year are consistently higher than for 2022 (see Table 10).
Overall, the data indicate a notable increase in both NO2 and SO2 levels from 2022 to 2023, with greater fluctuations and higher concentrations throughout the year. This increase indicates an increased demand for heating in winter, an increase in electricity consumption for lighting purposes, and a higher volume of traffic compared to the previous year [80].

3.7. Comparison of Pollution Levels Before and After the Recent War

A comparative analysis of the annual average concentrations of particulate matter (PM10), total volatile organic compounds (TVOCs), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) reveals significant post-war increases compared to the pre-war levels reported by Al-Jarrah [24]. Specifically, PM10 concentrations rose to 157 µg/m3 in 2022, representing a 1.2-fold increase, which further intensified to a 1.43-fold increase by 2023. TVOCs exhibited an extraordinary surge, increasing 40-fold in 2022 and escalating to 51.5-fold in 2023. Similarly, NO2 and SO2 levels increased by factors of 2.0 and 1.16, respectively, in 2022, rising further to 2.5- and 1.38-fold in 2023 (see Table 16).
This upward trend is primarily attributed to post-conflict population displacement, which resulted in a doubling of traffic volumes and a marked rise in energy demand. This demand has predominantly been satisfied through decentralized energy systems reliant on fossil fuels, comprising 97.7% of the energy mix [104,105], a necessity arising from widespread infrastructure damage due to successive wars and civil unrest. Concurrently, urban combat operations have reduced habitable areas, leading to the expansion of settlements into agricultural lands and a reduction in green spaces, thereby intensifying environmental degradation.

3.8. t-Test Values of Seasonal and Annual Variation

A suitable method for the statistical analysis of deviations in analytical data and their significance is the t-test. In this study, the dry periods (April to October) of 2022 and 2023 were first compared to the rainy periods (November to March). The results for PM2.5, PM10, TVOCs, HCHO, NO2, and SO2 all fall below the critical value (p < 0.05), indicating statistically significant differences for all parameters throughout the study period. Based on the null hypothesis that the sample mean and the population mean differ significantly at the 0.05 significance level due to the temporal gap between the two data series, a significant statistical difference is observed between these periods (p < 0.05; see Table 17).
A second t-test comparison was conducted for the entire years of 2022 and 2023. This analysis reveals no significant annual variation (p > 0.05) for any of the six pollutants between the two years (see Table 18). Therefore, the statistical evidence does not yet support a sustained long-term increasing trend in pollutant concentrations. It should be noted, however, that 2023 was characterized by an unusually high frequency of prolonged sandstorms, which may have distorted PM2.5 and PM10 emissions. Conversely, sandstorms typically promote substantial air exchange, which would be expected to reduce concentrations of other pollutants—yet these continue to show increasing trends.
Despite the absence of definitive statistical evidence, it can be inferred that concentration levels are rising, a trend likely to be exacerbated by ongoing climate change effects. Although debris removal from the direct conflict zones has increased, residual debris remains a persistent source of dust and particulate matter. This, combined with increased dust emissions due to decreased precipitation in 2023 and elevated emissions from fuel combustion and heating oil usage driven by population growth in the post-war period, has contributed to further deterioration in urban air quality, as reflected in the latest emission data.

3.9. Meteorological Factor

Mosul’s climate is characterized by hot, dry summers, brief transitional seasons, and relatively cool winters. The city’s semi-arid environment produces significant temperature variations throughout the year. Summers are extremely hot and dry, with average maximum temperatures ranging from 32.8 °C to 35 °C. Spring and autumn are short and mild, with average maximum temperatures between 20 °C and 28 °C. Winters are cool but not severely cold, with average maximum temperatures ranging from 14.1 °C to 14.8 °C [106].
During the study period, meteorological parameters fluctuated as follows: the average daily temperature ranged from 1.2 °C to 33.95 °C in 2022 and from 8.0 °C to 37.5 °C in 2023. Wind speeds varied between 3 and 18 km/h in 2022 and between 5 and 12 km/h in 2023. Relative humidity ranged from 5% to 80% in 2022 and from 5% to 60% in 2023 (see Figure 10). Monthly precipitation amounts were recorded between 0 and 63.2 mm in 2022 and between 0 and 38 mm in 2023. The annual total precipitation averaged 485 mm in 2022 and 293 mm in 2023 [107].
These parameters indicate predominantly dry weather conditions, underscoring the growing demand for irrigation water in the upcoming years. Climate prediction models project generally reduced precipitation compared to 2022, alongside rising temperatures and increased evaporation losses. These changes will exacerbate challenges related to drinking water and irrigation supply and will likely worsen air quality due to progressive desertification, particularly through increased particulate emissions. Specifically, the Water Scarcity Index estimates monthly evapotranspiration rates between 43 mm and 56 mm during the summer months (June through September) in 2022 [107].
As drought conditions lead to decreased vegetation density, elevated concentrations of particulate pollutants are expected during the summer months, even beyond the spring thunderstorm season, with effects persisting into autumn due to vegetation damage. This trend suggests a likely increase in all pollutant indicators in the coming years. This pattern was also observed in 2023, which experienced a marked decline in precipitation and humidity, coupled with rising temperatures and intensified drought conditions.
These findings highlight the urgent need to address air pollution, especially considering the simultaneous increase in pollutant levels, drought, and high temperatures. Therefore, this study recommends promoting renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydropower to reduce reliance on fossil fuels; expanding urban green spaces, including parks and gardens, which can help absorb pollutants and improve air quality; and enforcing stricter regulations on industrial emissions and vehicle exhausts to limit the release of harmful pollutants into the atmosphere.

4. Conclusions

Since its foundation, Iraq has endured over 40 years of war, unrest, and genocidal cleansing. These conditions have, on one hand, caused massive waves of refugees and, on the other hand, hindered or entirely prevented investments in infrastructure development. The resulting decentralized structures are characterized by inefficient heat and energy supply systems that are accompanied by high pollutant emissions. Concurrently, Iraq experiences a high birth rate of 3.4 children per woman and a population pyramid with over 33% of individuals under the age of 15, indicating a sharp population increase expected by the middle of this century. The growing resource demands of this rapidly expanding population will further aggravate environmental pressures, leading to a worsening of air quality. This deterioration is anticipated to accelerate due to intensified desertification, reduced rainfall, and the clearing of green belts.
Against this complex backdrop, the present study employed a combination of long-term satellite (orbital) data and ground-based measurements from 2022 to 2023 to analyze trends in air quality development. Beyond the expected seasonal increases—higher emissions of combustion-related pollutants such as TVOCs, HCHO, NO2, and SO2 during winter months, and elevated particulate matter emissions during drought-favored summer months—the study revealed a significant deterioration in substance-specific air quality in Mosul, with increases ranging from 14% to 51% within just one year.
The sharp increases in both vehicle numbers and population demand urgent and comprehensive measures by the city administration to reduce atmospheric emissions. Beyond debris removal, far-reaching regional solutions must be implemented to improve air quality.

5. Policy and Rehabilitation Strategies

Based on the findings of this study, several policy and rehabilitation strategies are essential to address the ongoing environmental challenges in Mosul and improve air quality sustainably:
  • Integration of Environmental Health into Urban Planning:
    Urban development plans should explicitly consider environmental health factors, focusing on reducing pollution sources and enhancing green infrastructure. Establishing green belts and restoring ecosystems near the city can mitigate sandstorms, improve air quality, and promote regional rainfall through favorable microclimates.
  • Transition to Renewable Energy Sources:
    Given the heavy reliance on fossil fuels and decentralized energy production, investing in centralized renewable energy systems (solar, wind, and hydropower) is crucial. This shift will reduce harmful emissions from combustion and contribute to sustainable urban energy supply.
  • Implementation of Air Purification Technologies:
    The deployment of advanced air purification and emission control technologies in industrial and transportation sectors is necessary to minimize pollutant release. Stricter regulations and regular monitoring of industrial emissions and vehicle exhaust should be enforced.
  • Development of Efficient Public Transport and Alternative Mobility:
    To reduce traffic congestion and emissions, an integrated and efficient public transportation system should be developed, and connectivity with satellite towns should be promoted. The promotion of electric vehicles and non-motorized transport (e.g., cycling lanes) can further enhance air quality.
  • Community Engagement and Awareness Programs:
    Educating the population about the sources and health impacts of air pollution, along with promoting energy conservation and sustainable living practices, will foster community participation in environmental protection.
  • Long-Term Monitoring and Research:
    Establishing continuous environmental monitoring networks and conducting longitudinal studies will provide critical data to evaluate the effectiveness of implemented strategies and guide future actions.

6. Limitations of the Study

This study faced significant limitations, including the following:
Restricted data collection due to ongoing security constraints, limiting spatial coverage.
The absence of continuous baseline air quality data prior to 2022, complicating long-term trend analysis. Possible distortion of particulate matter data by frequent sandstorms, which introduce natural variability. These limitations highlight the need for expanded and sustained monitoring efforts to fully capture the evolving environmental situation in Mosul.

Author Contributions

Methodology, Z.A.; Software, Z.A.; Validation, D.D.; Formal analysis, Z.A.; Investigation, Z.A. and D.D.; Resources, Z.A. and D.D.; Data curation, D.D.; Writing—original draft, Z.A.; Writing—review & editing, D.D.; Visualization, D.D. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Institutional Review Board Statement

Not applicable.

Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

The original contributions presented in this study are included in the article. Further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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Figure 2. Satellite image of Mosul city showing monitoring locations and major urban sites.
Figure 2. Satellite image of Mosul city showing monitoring locations and major urban sites.
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Figure 3. Heatmap of atmospheric PM2.5 levels from 1983 to 2023 (data source: see Table 6).
Figure 3. Heatmap of atmospheric PM2.5 levels from 1983 to 2023 (data source: see Table 6).
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Atmosphere 16 00756 g004
Figure 4. Heat map of atmospheric PM10 levels from 1983 to 2023 (data source: see Table 7).
Figure 4. Heat map of atmospheric PM10 levels from 1983 to 2023 (data source: see Table 7).
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Atmosphere 16 00756 g005
Figure 5. Comparison of annual average values of relevant air contaminants of all sites in the years 2022 and 2023 (authors) (data sources: Table 8 and Table 9).
Figure 5. Comparison of annual average values of relevant air contaminants of all sites in the years 2022 and 2023 (authors) (data sources: Table 8 and Table 9).
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Figure 6. Heat map of atmospheric TVOC levels from 1983 to 2023 (data source: see Table 11).
Figure 6. Heat map of atmospheric TVOC levels from 1983 to 2023 (data source: see Table 11).
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Figure 7. Heatmap of atmospheric formaldehyde (HCHO) levels from 1983 to 2023 (data source: see Table 12).
Figure 7. Heatmap of atmospheric formaldehyde (HCHO) levels from 1983 to 2023 (data source: see Table 12).
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Atmosphere 16 00756 g008
Figure 8. Heatmap of atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels from 1983 to 2023 at key time periods of the last 4 decades (data source: see Table 13).
Figure 8. Heatmap of atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels from 1983 to 2023 at key time periods of the last 4 decades (data source: see Table 13).
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Atmosphere 16 00756 g009
Figure 9. Heatmap of atmospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) levels from 1983 to 2023 (data source: see Table 14).
Figure 9. Heatmap of atmospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) levels from 1983 to 2023 (data source: see Table 14).
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Figure 10. Meteorological factors in Mosul city during the study period of 2022–2023.
Figure 10. Meteorological factors in Mosul city during the study period of 2022–2023.
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Table 1. Air contaminants of interest, as well as satellite collections and services handling corresponding atmospheric data.
Table 1. Air contaminants of interest, as well as satellite collections and services handling corresponding atmospheric data.
Air Contaminant Satellites and Services
PM2.5 and PM10 MERRA-2, MODIS, CAMS, Sentinel-5P
NO2 MERRA-2, CAMS, OMI, Sentinel-5P
SO2 MERRA-2, MODIS, TOMS, OMI, VIIRS, Sentinel-5P, TROPOMI
HCHO OMI, MODIS, GOME-2, TROPOMI, CALIPSO, Sentinel-5P
TVOCs OMI; MODIS, GEOS-Chem, EDGAR, CAMS, TROPOMI, CALIPSO, Sentine-5P
Table 2. The differences, resolutions, and reliability of the satellite collections.
Table 2. The differences, resolutions, and reliability of the satellite collections.
Instrument/Service Type Spatial Resolution Temporal Resolution Reliability/Key Features
OMI Satellite Sensor 13 km × 24 km Daily High accuracy for trace gases.
CAMS Model + Assimilation 40 km (global), 10 km (EU) Hourly forecasts Relies on models + satellite data; trusted for operational forecasts but coarser resolution.
MERRA-2 Reanalysis Dataset ~50 km (0.5° × 0.625°) Hourly (1980–present) Consistent long-term data; model biases exist (e.g., tropical precipitation).
MODIS Satellite Sensor 250 m–1 km 1–2 days High-resolution imaging; aging sensor’s successor: VIIRS.
TROPOMI Satellite Sensor 3.5 km × 7 km (2022: 5.5 km) Daily Higher resolution than OMI; on Sentinel-5P (2017–present); minimal calibration drift.
CALIPSO Satellite Lidar 333 m (horizontal), 30–60 m (vertical) Daily Unique vertical profiling; limited swath width; retired in 2024.
Sentinel-5P Satellite Platform 3.5 km × 7 km (TROPOMI) Daily Dedicated to atmospheric composition; complements OMI/TROPOMI with improved coverage.
Table 3. Location of the sample sites.
Table 3. Location of the sample sites.
No.LocationLatitude
N		Longitude
E		Area TypeDescription
S1Nineveh Environment Directorate36′375474″ N33′144447″ EResidential areaLocated on the left coast on a main street; close to a busy traffic intersection.
S2Public Library36′352716″ N33′225501″ ECommercial areaLocated on the left coast on a main street; close to a busy traffic intersection; close to debris area.
S3Fever Hospital36′326370″ N33′184714″ EResidential areaLocated on left coast; close to electrical generator.
S4Mosul Municipality36′336212″ N33′140137″ ECommercial areaOn right coast; close to a busy traffic intersection; close to debris area.
S5Health Center36′294598″ N33′150632″ EResidential and commercial areaLocated on right coast; located in a main street; close to debris area.
S6Alshabab Sport center36′273241″ N33′163325″ EService areaLocated on right coast; close to busy traffic intersection and electrical generator.
Table 4. Recommended AQI levels based on WHO 2021 air quality guidelines [8].
Table 4. Recommended AQI levels based on WHO 2021 air quality guidelines [8].
PollutionAvg. TimeAQI Level
PM2.5 (µg/m3)Annual5
24 h15
PM10 (µg/m3)Annual15
24 h45
NO2 (µg/m3)Annual10
24 h25
SO2 (µg/m3)Annual-
24 h40
TVOC mg/m3Annual-
24 h0.3–0.5
HCHO mg/m3Annual-
24 h0.1
Table 5. Years of high war-related air quality impact.
Table 5. Years of high war-related air quality impact.
YearEvent
1983Last pre-war year (reference year)
1990Start of the Second Gulf War
1995First presidential referendum of Sadam Hussein
2000Parliamentary election in Iraq
2002Pre-war year of the Third Gulf War
2004Post-war year of the Third Gulf War
2011Final withdrawal of US troops
2014Beginning of ISIS occupation of Mosul
2017Battle for Mosul
2020COVID-19 lockdown
2022Year of particularly high number of sandstorms
2023Year of extreme heat and water scarcity due to progressive desertification
Table 6. Atmospheric PM2.5 levels as annual average values of the Mosul region and data sources.
Table 6. Atmospheric PM2.5 levels as annual average values of the Mosul region and data sources.
Year PM2.5 (µg/m3) Notes Main Sources
1983 40–60 Reanalysis data (limited accuracy) MERRA-2 aerosol diagnostics
2002 70–90 Increased due to wars and dust MERRA-2 aerosol diagnostics
2011 80–110 Impact of sandstorms and industries MERRA-2 aerosol diagnostics
2014 100–150 Peak pollution during ISIS control MERRA-2 aerosol diagnostics
2014 100–150 Peak pollution (burning oil fields, ISIS battles) MERRA-2
2015 110–160 Ongoing conflicts; severe dust storms MERRA-2
2016 120–170 Infrastructure destruction; construction emissions MERRA-2 + MODIS AOD
2017 130–180 Military operations, post-liberation MERRA-2 + CAMS
2018 100–140 Relative decline due to partial stabilization MERRA-2 + [8]
2019 90–130 Drought and increased sandstorms MERRA-2
2020 80–120 Temporary drop due to COVID-19 lockdowns MERRA-2 + Sentinel-5P
2021 95–135 Recovery of industrial activities and traffic MERRA-2
2022 100–140 Increased generator usage + traffic MERRA-2 + CAMS
2023 105–145 Increased generator usage + traffic MERRA-2 + MODIS
Table 8. Annual average values of all contaminants at all sites during 2022.
Table 8. Annual average values of all contaminants at all sites during 2022.
ParameterPM2.5PM10TVOCHCHONO2SO2Temp. °CWind
km/h		Humidity
%		Rainfall
mm
WHO 20215
μg/m3		15
μg/m3		0.5
mg/m3		0.1 mg/m310
μg/m3		40
μg/m3
Jan12.3319.003.380.78510635.551.23 NW7062.5
Feb13.0051.002.710.72584.6732.369.18 SW8062.7
Mar17.6795.333.030.42566.6723.5813.056 SW6663.2
Apr62.00231.331.040.06539.3322.0418.210 SW5644.1
May107.50521.000.310.00529.3321.8224.4512 NW3015.2
Jun88.83347.500.250.00529.6720.8630.2518 SW121.1
Jul50.17294.830.270.01531.0013.1233.9515 NW60
Aug35.83248.000.440.07530.0012.8833.413 SW50
Sep30.67233.330.840.23536.6714.0428.6512 SW80.3
Oct15.50178.670.980.39537.3317.4422.055 NW2311.8
Nov16.5046.501.200.57549.6715.3714.154 SW3845
Dec15.1738.501.480.67569.3321.388.956 SW6358
Table 9. Annual average values of all contaminants at all sites during 2023.
Table 9. Annual average values of all contaminants at all sites during 2023.
ParameterPM2.5PM10TVOCHCHONO2SO2Temp. °CWind
km/h		Humidity
%		Rainfall
mm
WHO 20215
μg/m3		15
μg/m3		0.5
mg/m3		0.1 mg/m310
μg/m3		40
μg/m3
Jan18.244.173.790.92114.8340.786 SW5824
Feb24.8105.673.470.8873.5040.83910 SW7526
Mar137.0124.503.230.5484.3326.83168 S5212
Apr44.3113.001.200.1366.8324.7515.512 SW5628
May64.2416.670.400.1231.0022.5223.510 SW304
Jun77.8408.830.370.0729.8324.93308 SW2216
Jul109.2414.670.440.0831.3316.3336.2510 S90
Aug83.3270.330.670.1427.8317.8337.510 NW50
Sep79.2322.331.270.3228.8318.88347 NW80
Oct32.2212.001.630.5051.0017.8328.56 NW280
Nov26.0124.172.090.7059.5016.8723.55 SW322
Dec20.839.171.910.8292.1727.3313.758 NW5616
Table 10. Statistical analysis of all contaminants for 2022 and 2023.
Table 10. Statistical analysis of all contaminants for 2022 and 2023.
StatisticPM2.5 (2022)PM2.5 (2023)PM10 (2022)PM10 (2023)TVOC (2022)TVOC (2023)HCHO (2022)HCHO (2023)NO2 (2022)NO2 (2023)SO2 (2022)SO2 (2023)
Mean38.759.75192.08224.61.331.750.3250.4450.857.521.825.5
Std. 32.131.16158.1134.81.0961.190.290.3225.329.37.199.6
Min12.318.215.839.20.250.370.050.0729.327.81216.3
25%15.432.6740.6111.170.3750.650.10.130.730.715.0517.9
50%24.248.4598168.251.051.450.40.438.355.2521.1523.3
75%53.180.9204.6345.41.752.370.6250.72567.3576.222.427.5
Max1107.5137521416.73.383.790.830.92105.8114.835.540.7
Table 13. Atmospheric NO2 levels as annual average values of the Mosul region with key events impacting emissions.
Table 13. Atmospheric NO2 levels as annual average values of the Mosul region with key events impacting emissions.
Year NO2 (µg/m3) Notes Main Sources
1983 8–12 Decline in emissions due to economic sanctions CAMS (ECMWF, 2023) [51,71]
1990 10–15 Slight increase due to population growth CAMS (ECMWF, 2023) [51] + UNDP (1992)
1995 12–18 Rise in generator use MERRA-2 (GMAO, 2015) [89]
2000 15–20 Impact of sanctions on fuel quality CAMS (ECMWF, 2023) [88]
2004 10–15 Start of OMI data; post-US invasion decline OMI ([92] + CAMS [51]
2011 20–30 Peak emissions (transport, generators, industry) OMI [92]
2014 5–10 Collapse of industrial activity under ISIS OMI [92]
2017 15–25 Military operations, post-liberation OMI [92] + CAMS [51]
2020 10–18 Temporary drop due to COVID-19 lockdowns OMI [92] + Sentinel-5P [92
2022 16–25 Increased generator usage + traffic CAMS [51] + local reports [71]
2023 18–29 Economic recovery and increased traffic CAMS [51] + OMI [51]
Table 14. Atmospheric SO2 levels as annual average values of the Mosul region correlated to key events.
Table 14. Atmospheric SO2 levels as annual average values of the Mosul region correlated to key events.
Year Range SO2 Range (µg/m3) Data Source/Method Key Events/Drivers
1983–1990 1.35–3.23 Proxy: NO2/aerosol models [95] + ground reports [71] Iran–Iraq War; industrial/vehicle emissions
1991–2000 5.38–12.11 Proxy: Post-Gulf War oil fires (MODIS: [97]/ASTER: [98])Gulf War oil fires (1991); massive HCHO release [99]
2001–2010 2.69–6.73 Satellite: Aura/OMI HCHO trends [100] Post-invasion decline; sporadic industrial activity
2011–2014 5.38–9.42 Satellite: OMI [100] + MODIS fire data [97]Pre-ISIS instability; oil smuggling and flaring [101]
2015–2017 10.76–21.52 Satellite: OMI [100] + CALIPSO aerosols [71]ISIS occupation; refinery sabotage [100]
2018–2020 6.73–10.76 Satellite: Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI [51] Post-liberation cleanup; reduced burning
2021–2023 8.07–13.45 Satellite: TROPOMI [92] + ground models [38]Rebuilding; traffic, construction [93]
Table 15. Contaminant levels and their increase in the 2022–2023 study period, based on annual average levels.
Table 15. Contaminant levels and their increase in the 2022–2023 study period, based on annual average levels.
ParameterCurrent Study 2022 [14]Current Study 2023Factor 2023/2022
PM2.5 μg/m33959.751.51
PM10 μg/m3192224.61.17
TVOC mg/m31.331.71.27
HCHO mg/m30.380.441.15
NO2 μg/m350.857.81.14
SO2 μg/m32124.61.21
Table 16. Comparison of the average annual levels of all air pollutant parameters in Mosul city before and after the war.
Table 16. Comparison of the average annual levels of all air pollutant parameters in Mosul city before and after the war.
ParameterPrevious Study 2014 *Current Study 2022Current Study 2023Factor 2022/2014Factor 2023/2014
PM2.5 μg/m3ND3959.75NDND
PM10 μg/m3157192224.61.21.43
TVOC mg/m30.0331.331.740.351.5
HCHO mg/m3ND0.380.44NDND
NO2 μg/m324.350.85822.5
SO2 μg/m3182125.51.161.36
* [27].
Table 17. Comparison of t-test values between wet and dry weather during 2022–2023.
Table 17. Comparison of t-test values between wet and dry weather during 2022–2023.
Parameter 20222023
TpDfStatusTpDfStatus
PM2.53.8338960.0016489011014.2229910.000882101
PM104.7005040.0004204621013.7982450.001748101
TVOC−3.628570.002311747101−4.780690.000372101
HCHO−7.117061.61448 × 10−5101−7.155691.54 × 10−5101
NO2−3.57630.002521302101−3.828460.001664101
SO2−1.802770.04019654101−1.650050.04973101
Table 18. t-test values between 2022 and 2023 for the six key air contaminants analyzed.
Table 18. t-test values between 2022 and 2023 for the six key air contaminants analyzed.
Parameter TpDfStatus
PM2.5−0.435440.133742220
PM10−1.061090.150079220
TVOC−0.788140.219512220
HCHO−0.809350.213491220
NO2−1.009280.161907220
SO2−1.135140.134267220
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Altahaan, Z.; Dobslaw, D. Assessing Long-Term Post-Conflict Air Pollution: Trends and Implications for Air Quality in Mosul, Iraq. Atmosphere 2025, 16, 756. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16070756

AMA Style

Altahaan Z, Dobslaw D. Assessing Long-Term Post-Conflict Air Pollution: Trends and Implications for Air Quality in Mosul, Iraq. Atmosphere. 2025; 16(7):756. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16070756

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Altahaan, Zena, and Daniel Dobslaw. 2025. "Assessing Long-Term Post-Conflict Air Pollution: Trends and Implications for Air Quality in Mosul, Iraq" Atmosphere 16, no. 7: 756. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16070756

APA Style

Altahaan, Z., & Dobslaw, D. (2025). Assessing Long-Term Post-Conflict Air Pollution: Trends and Implications for Air Quality in Mosul, Iraq. Atmosphere, 16(7), 756. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16070756

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