Future Climate Prediction Based on Support Vector Machine Optimization in Tianjin, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Description of the Study Area
2.2. Meteorological Data
2.3. Methods
2.3.1. LARS-WG Model Approach
2.3.2. SVM
2.4. Statistical Evaluation Criterions
3. Results and Discussions
3.1. LARS-WG
3.1.1. Baseline Data Comparison
3.1.2. Future Climate Projections
3.2. SVM
3.2.1. SVM Operation
3.2.2. Future Climate Optimization Based on SVM
4. Limitations and Outlooks
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Station | Lat. | Long. | Elev. (m) | Tmax (°C) | Tmin (°C) | P. (mm/year) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baodi54525 | 39.73 | 117.28 | 4.7 | 40.8 | −27.4 | 672.0 |
Tianjin54527 | 38.59 | 117.43 | 5.6 | 40.5 | −22.9 | 635.72 |
Tanggu54623 | 39.06 | 117.10 | 3.3 | 40.9 | −17.1 | 719.51 |
GCM | Development Institute | Country | RCP |
---|---|---|---|
ACCESS1-3 | European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites | European | 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 |
BCC-CSM1-1 | Beijing Climate Center | China | 4.5, 8.5 |
CanESM2 | Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis | Canada | 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 |
CMCC-CM | China Meteorological Administration | China | 4.5, 8.5 |
CNRM-CM5 | National Meteorological Research Centre and European Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computing | France | 4.5, 8.5 |
CSIRO-MK36 | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization | Australia | 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 |
EC-EARTH | European Commission—Joint Research Centre | European | 4.5, 8.5 |
Had-GEM2-ES | Hadley Centre Global Environment | England | 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 |
KS-Test for Daily Tmin Distributions | Effective N | KS Statistic | p-Value | KS-Test for Daily Tmax Distributions | Effective N | KS Statistic | p-Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J | 11.5 | 0 | 1 | J | 11.5 | 0.052 | 1 |
F | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | F | 11.5 | 0.052 | 1 |
M | 11.5 | 0 | 1 | M | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
A | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | A | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
M | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | M | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
J | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | J | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
J | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | J | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
A | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | A | 11.5 | 0.106 | 0.999 |
S | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | S | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
O | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | O | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
N | 11.5 | 0.052 | 1 | N | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
D | 11.5 | 0.033 | 1 | D | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
KS-Test for Daily Tmin Distributions | Effective N | KS Statistic | p-Value | KS-Test for Daily Tmax Distributions | Effective N | KS Statistic | p-Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | J | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
F | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | F | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
M | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | M | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
A | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | A | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
M | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | M | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
J | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | J | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
J | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | J | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
A | 11.5 | 0.106 | 0.999 | A | 11.5 | 0.106 | 0.999 |
S | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | S | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
O | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | O | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
N | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | N | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
D | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | D | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
KS-Test for Daily Tmin Distributions | Effective N | KS Statistic | p-Value | KS-Test for Daily Tmax Distributions | Effective N | KS Statistic | p-Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J | 11.5 | 0.033 | 1 | J | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
F | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | F | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
M | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | M | 11.5 | 0 | 1 |
A | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | A | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
M | 11.5 | 0.052 | 1 | M | 11.5 | 0.052 | 1 |
J | 11.5 | 0.106 | 0.999 | J | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
J | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | J | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
A | 11.5 | 0.106 | 0.999 | A | 11.5 | 0.106 | 0.999 |
S | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | S | 11.5 | 0.105 | 0.999 |
O | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 | O | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
N | 11.5 | 0 | 1 | N | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
D | 11.5 | 0.01 | 1 | D | 11.5 | 0.053 | 1 |
GCM | RCP | Baodi | Tianjin | Tanggu | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tmax | Tmin | Tmax | Tmin | Tmax | Tmin | ||||||||
RMSE | R2 | RMSE | R2 | RMSE | R2 | RMSE | R2 | RMSE | R2 | RMSE | R2 | ||
ACCESS1-3 | RCP4.5 | 5.19 | 0.80 | 4.39 | 0.86 | 5.24 | 0.79 | 4.01 | 0.87 | 5.02 | 0.80 | 4.07 | 0.86 |
RCP8.5 | 5.20 | 0.80 | 4.41 | 0.86 | 5.26 | 0.79 | 4.02 | 0.87 | 5.03 | 0.80 | 4.09 | 0.86 | |
BCC-CSM1-1 | RCP4.5 | 5.27 | 0.79 | 4.45 | 0.85 | 5.30 | 0.79 | 4.08 | 0.87 | 5.09 | 0.80 | 4.11 | 0.86 |
RCP8.5 | 5.26 | 0.79 | 4.41 | 0.85 | 5.28 | 0.79 | 4.08 | 0.87 | 5.04 | 0.80 | 4.09 | 0.86 | |
CanESM2 | RCP4.5 | 5.30 | 0.79 | 4.49 | 0.85 | 5.32 | 0.78 | 4.10 | 0.87 | 5.12 | 0.79 | 4.17 | 0.86 |
RCP8.5 | 5.26 | 0.79 | 4.40 | 0.85 | 5.27 | 0.79 | 4.08 | 0.87 | 5.05 | 0.80 | 4.11 | 0.86 | |
CMCC-CM | RCP4.5 | 5.27 | 0.79 | 4.43 | 0.85 | 5.29 | 0.79 | 4.09 | 0.87 | 5.05 | 0.80 | 4.10 | 0.86 |
RCP8.5 | 5.18 | 0.80 | 4.39 | 0.85 | 5.22 | 0.79 | 4.07 | 0.87 | 5.00 | 0.80 | 4.07 | 0.86 | |
CNRM-CM5 | RCP4.5 | 5.25 | 0.79 | 4.48 | 0.85 | 5.29 | 0.79 | 4.06 | 0.87 | 5.10 | 0.80 | 4.13 | 0.86 |
RCP8.5 | 5.22 | 0.79 | 4.44 | 0.85 | 5.26 | 0.79 | 4.05 | 0.87 | 5.05 | 0.80 | 4.10 | 0.86 | |
CSIRO-MK36 | RCP4.5 | 5.22 | 0.80 | 4.44 | 0.85 | 5.26 | 0.79 | 4.04 | 0.87 | 5.03 | 0.80 | 4.07 | 0.86 |
RCP8.5 | 5.21 | 0.80 | 4.40 | 0.84 | 5.27 | 0.79 | 4.05 | 0.87 | 5.05 | 0.80 | 4.07 | 0.86 | |
EC-EARTH | RCP4.5 | 5.23 | 0.80 | 4.45 | 0.85 | 5.27 | 0.79 | 4.05 | 0.87 | 5.07 | 0.80 | 4.11 | 0.86 |
RCP8.5 | 5.21 | 0.80 | 4.41 | 0.86 | 5.25 | 0.79 | 4.04 | 0.87 | 5.03 | 0.80 | 4.08 | 0.86 | |
Had GEM2-ES | RCP4.5 | 5.21 | 0.80 | 4.41 | 0.86 | 5.22 | 0.79 | 4.08 | 0.87 | 4.98 | 0.80 | 4.06 | 0.86 |
RCP8.5 | 5.21 | 0.80 | 4.41 | 0.86 | 5.22 | 0.79 | 4.12 | 0.87 | 5.01 | 0.80 | 4.08 | 0.86 |
Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1-RCP45-50 | −9.3 | −6 | 0.5 | 7.4 | 13.9 | 19 | 22.9 | 21.9 | 15.7 | 8.1 | −0.13 | −6.4 |
1-RCP45-70 | −8.2 | −4.9 | 1.6 | 8.4 | 14.7 | 19.6 | 23.5 | 22.6 | 16.4 | 8.8 | 0.77 | −5.3 |
1-RCP85-50 | −8.9 | −5.9 | 0.6 | 7.6 | 14.3 | 19.8 | 23.9 | 22.6 | 16.1 | 8.4 | 0.35 | −5.7 |
1-RCP85-70 | −6.9 | −3.8 | 2.6 | 9.5 | 16.2 | 21.3 | 25.2 | 24 | 17.8 | 10.3 | 2.08 | −4 |
2-RCP45-50 | −8.5 | −6.1 | 0.7 | 7.8 | 14 | 19 | 23.1 | 22.3 | 16.1 | 8.6 | 0.49 | −5.2 |
2-RCP45-70 | −7.7 | −5.3 | 1.3 | 8.5 | 15.1 | 20.4 | 24.6 | 23.6 | 17.1 | 9.5 | 1.46 | −4.4 |
2-RCP85-50 | −8.5 | −5.7 | 1 | 8 | 14.3 | 19.5 | 23.6 | 22.5 | 16.2 | 8.6 | 0.56 | −5.4 |
2-RCP85-70 | −6.9 | −4.4 | 2 | 9 | 15.5 | 20.9 | 25.2 | 24.4 | 18 | 10.3 | 2 | −3.8 |
3-RCP45-50 | −9.7 | −6.7 | 0.03 | 7.1 | 13.7 | 18.7 | 22.5 | 21.5 | 15.4 | 7.9 | 0.02 | −6.2 |
3-RCP45-70 | −9.2 | −6.2 | 0.4 | 7.7 | 14.2 | 19.1 | 22.9 | 22.2 | 16.1 | 8.6 | 0.55 | −5.8 |
3-RCP85-50 | −9.5 | −6.8 | 0.04 | 7.6 | 14.4 | 19.3 | 22.9 | 21.9 | 15.9 | 8.5 | 0.49 | −5.9 |
3-RCP85-70 | −8.3 | −5.6 | 1.18 | 8.6 | 15.2 | 20.2 | 24.2 | 23.4 | 17.3 | 9.8 | 1.7 | −4.7 |
4-RCP45-50 | −8.2 | −5.6 | 0.84 | 8.3 | 14.9 | 19.8 | 23.5 | 22.3 | 16.3 | 9.1 | 1.22 | −5.1 |
4-RCP45-70 | −7.4 | −4.3 | 1.86 | 9.1 | 15.9 | 20.8 | 24.2 | 23.1 | 17.2 | 10 | 1.84 | −4.8 |
4-RCP85-50 | −8.1 | −5.3 | 1.56 | 8.8 | 15.1 | 20 | 23.8 | 22.9 | 16.8 | 9.4 | 1.44 | −4.7 |
4-RCP85-70 | −5.4 | −2.4 | 4.1 | 10.8 | 16.8 | 21.5 | 25.2 | 24.2 | 18.4 | 11.2 | 3.33 | −2.4 |
Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1-RCP45-50 | 2.8 | 6.5 | 12.7 | 20.7 | 27.4 | 31.6 | 32.4 | 31 | 27.4 | 20.1 | 10.9 | 4.3 |
1-RCP45-70 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 13.8 | 21.8 | 28.1 | 32.2 | 33 | 31.7 | 28.1 | 20.8 | 11.8 | 5.4 |
1-RCP85-50 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 12.8 | 21 | 27.7 | 32.4 | 33.4 | 31.6 | 27.8 | 20.5 | 11.3 | 5 |
1-RCP85-70 | 5.2 | 8.7 | 14.8 | 22.9 | 29.6 | 34 | 34.7 | 33 | 29.6 | 22.4 | 13.1 | 6.6 |
2-RCP45-50 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 12.8 | 21.3 | 27.3 | 31.2 | 32.5 | 31.6 | 28.3 | 21.4 | 12.5 | 6 |
2-RCP45-70 | 4 | 6.7 | 13.4 | 22.3 | 28.7 | 33.1 | 34.7 | 33.4 | 29.6 | 22.9 | 13.9 | 6.8 |
2-RCP85-50 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 13 | 21.1 | 27.7 | 32 | 32.9 | 31.3 | 27.9 | 21.2 | 12.6 | 6 |
2-RCP85-70 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 14 | 22.4 | 28.8 | 33.2 | 34.9 | 34 | 30.6 | 23.6 | 14.4 | 7.4 |
3-RCP45-50 | 2.4 | 5.8 | 12.2 | 20.5 | 27.1 | 31.3 | 32 | 30.5 | 27.1 | 20 | 11 | 4.5 |
3-RCP45-70 | 3 | 6.2 | 12.6 | 21.1 | 27.7 | 31.6 | 32.5 | 31.2 | 27.8 | 20.7 | 11.6 | 4.9 |
3-RCP85-50 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 12.2 | 21 | 27.9 | 31.8 | 32.4 | 30.9 | 27.6 | 20.6 | 11.5 | 4.8 |
3-RCP85-70 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 13.3 | 22 | 28.6 | 32.8 | 33.7 | 32.4 | 29 | 21.9 | 12.7 | 6 |
4-RCP45-50 | 2.7 | 6.2 | 13.1 | 22.4 | 28.7 | 32.5 | 33.2 | 32.3 | 28.5 | 20.9 | 11.4 | 5 |
4-RCP45-70 | 4.7 | 8.7 | 14.7 | 23.3 | 29.9 | 33.6 | 33.5 | 32.4 | 29 | 21.5 | 12.3 | 6.3 |
4-RCP85-50 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 13.6 | 22.3 | 28.9 | 32.8 | 33.7 | 32.4 | 28.8 | 21.3 | 12 | 5.3 |
4-RCP85-70 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 16 | 23.9 | 30 | 34.1 | 34.9 | 33.6 | 30.4 | 22.8 | 13.4 | 7.4 |
Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1-RCP45-50 | −6.3 | −3.45 | 2.63 | 9.77 | 16.23 | 21 | 24.2 | 23.35 | 17.94 | 10.69 | 2.41 | −3.76 |
1-RCP45-70 | −5.2 | 2.43 | 3.7 | 10.77 | 16.88 | 21.45 | 24.78 | 24.1 | 18.71 | 11.44 | 3.32 | −2.66 |
1-RCP85-50 | −6 | −3.44 | 2.7 | 9.95 | 16.51 | 21.71 | 25.18 | 23.92 | 18.31 | 11.02 | 2.86 | −3.13 |
1-RCP85-70 | −4.1 | −1.33 | 4.72 | 11.96 | 18.4 | 23.26 | 26.54 | 25.49 | 20.19 | 13 | 4.65 | −1.52 |
2-RCP45-50 | −5.6 | −3.37 | 2.82 | 10.08 | 16.2 | 20.8 | 24.22 | 23.65 | 18.44 | 11.26 | 3.02 | −2.79 |
2-RCP45-70 | −4.8 | −2.58 | 3.58 | 10.91 | 17.3 | 22.23 | 25.80 | 24.9 | 19.41 | 12.26 | 4.05 | −1.96 |
2-RCP85-50 | −5.5 | −2.94 | 3.19 | 10.33 | 16.62 | 21.42 | 24.77 | 23.84 | 18.5 | 11.37 | 3.15 | −2.86 |
2-RCP85-70 | −4 | −1.62 | 4.29 | 11.38 | 17.78 | 22.71 | 26.38 | 23.74 | 20.31 | 13.01 | 4.58 | −1.38 |
3-RCP45-50 | −6.6 | −4.03 | 2.34 | 9.53 | 15.93 | 20.61 | 23.77 | 22.97 | 17.72 | 10.61 | 2.60 | −3.56 |
3-RCP45-70 | −6.1 | −3.53 | 2.68 | 10.07 | 16.42 | 20.91 | 24.22 | 23.68 | 18.43 | 11.29 | 3.14 | −3.14 |
3-RCP85-50 | −6.4 | 4.05 | 2.23 | 9.90 | 16.51 | 21 | 23.98 | 23.24 | 18.2 | 11.19 | 3.05 | −3.24 |
3-RCP85-70 | −5.2 | −2.56 | 3.39 | 10.89 | 17.33 | 21.96 | 25.28 | 24.7 | 19.58 | 12.44 | 4.21 | −2.09 |
4-RCP45-50 | −5.7 | −3.4 | 2.97 | 10.47 | 16.72 | 21.2 | 24.39 | 23.62 | 18.39 | 11.29 | 3.30 | −2.64 |
4-RCP45-70 | −5 | −2.17 | 4.02 | 11.36 | 17.79 | 22.24 | 25.17 | 24.37 | 19.35 | 12.23 | 3.92 | −2.30 |
4-RCP85-50 | −5.3 | −2.77 | 3.54 | 10.84 | 17.01 | 21.53 | 24.74 | 24 | 18.88 | 11.85 | 3.77 | −2.34 |
4-RCP85-70 | −2.5 | 0.16 | 6.06 | 12.84 | 18.72 | 23.11 | 26.18 | 25.41 | 20.55 | 13.7 | 5.71 | 0.01 |
Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1-RCP45-50 | 3.1 | 6.57 | 13.24 | 21.47 | 27.77 | 31.15 | 32.69 | 31.44 | 27.42 | 20.71 | 11.53 | 4.88 |
1-RCP45-70 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 14.31 | 22.51 | 28.40 | 31.56 | 33.22 | 32.18 | 28.21 | 21.44 | 12.44 | 5.98 |
1-RCP85-50 | 3.4 | 6.58 | 13.31 | 21.66 | 28 | 31.87 | 33.62 | 32 | 27.78 | 21.03 | 11.97 | 5.5 |
1-RCP85-70 | 5.3 | 8.69 | 15.32 | 23.68 | 29.92 | 33.42 | 34.9 | 33.57 | 29.69 | 23.05 | 13.78 | 7.13 |
2-RCP45-50 | 3.9 | 6.47 | 13.41 | 21.98 | 27.77 | 30.74 | 32.62 | 31.97 | 28.36 | 21.99 | 13.12 | 6.51 |
2-RCP45-70 | 4.3 | 6.87 | 14.01 | 22.98 | 29.12 | 32.68 | 34.87 | 33.7 | 29.73 | 23.56 | 14.57 | 7.31 |
2-RCP85-50 | 4.1 | 6.99 | 13.64 | 21.83 | 28.13 | 31.59 | 33.02 | 31.73 | 28.09 | 21.97 | 13.32 | 6.62 |
2-RCP85-70 | 5.1 | 7.90 | 14.70 | 23.11 | 29.15 | 32.69 | 35.02 | 34.37 | 30.69 | 24.23 | 14.99 | 7.86 |
3-RCP45-50 | 2.8 | 5.98 | 12.85 | 21.26 | 27.48 | 30.75 | 32.21 | 31.05 | 27.22 | 20.61 | 11.75 | 5.07 |
3-RCP45-70 | 3.3 | 6.48 | 13.28 | 21.82 | 27.98 | 31.01 | 32.66 | 31.76 | 27.93 | 21.31 | 12.29 | 5.5 |
3-RCP85-50 | 3 | 5.96 | 12.81 | 21.64 | 28.11 | 31.14 | 32.42 | 31.32 | 27.7 | 21.23 | 12.20 | 3.38 |
3-RCP85-70 | 4.2 | 7.15 | 13.98 | 22.64 | 28.88 | 32.08 | 33.72 | 32.78 | 29.09 | 22.46 | 13.35 | 6.53 |
4-RCP45-50 | 3.6 | 6.78 | 14.11 | 22.92 | 29.03 | 32.02 | 33.46 | 32.45 | 28.56 | 21.5 | 12.25 | 5.74 |
4-RCP45-70 | 5.6 | 9.33 | 15.94 | 23.97 | 30.3 | 33.16 | 33.79 | 32.59 | 29.07 | 22.23 | 13.30 | 7.19 |
4-RCP85-50 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 14.55 | 23.17 | 30.15 | 32.14 | 33.72 | 32.67 | 28.73 | 21.81 | 12.63 | 5.96 |
4-RCP85-70 | 6.5 | 9.99 | 16.94 | 24.81 | 30.49 | 33.65 | 35.03 | 34.04 | 30.48 | 23.48 | 14.16 | 8.19 |
Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1-RCP45-50 | −5.15 | −2.39 | 3.04 | 9.97 | 16.6 | 21.77 | 25 | 24.46 | 19.54 | 12.08 | 3.64 | −3.36 |
1-RCP45-70 | −4.07 | −1.4 | 4.1 | 10.97 | 17.25 | 22.23 | 25.58 | 25.28 | 20.36 | 12.85 | 4.57 | −2.23 |
1-RCP85-50 | −4.81 | −2.41 | 3.11 | 10.15 | 16.86 | 22.47 | 25.95 | 25.06 | 19.91 | 12.39 | 4.09 | −2.73 |
1-RCP85-70 | −2.97 | −1.33 | 5.14 | 12.16 | 18.72 | 23.98 | 27.3 | 26.69 | 21.8 | 14.45 | 5.92 | −1.12 |
2-RCP45-50 | −4.38 | −2.18 | 3.24 | 10.21 | 16.54 | 21.51 | 24.83 | 24.65 | 19.98 | 12.63 | 4.24 | −2.46 |
2-RCP45-70 | −3.64 | −1.37 | 4.07 | 11.10 | 17.68 | 22.96 | 26.43 | 25.90 | 20.97 | 13.66 | 5.33 | −1.61 |
2-RCP85-50 | −4.35 | −1.79 | 3.6 | 10.49 | 17.03 | 22.19 | 25.42 | 24.85 | 20.06 | 12.78 | 4.42 | −2.51 |
2-RCP85-70 | −2.80 | −0.42 | 4.77 | 11.60 | 18.17 | 23.43 | 26.99 | 26.73 | 21.85 | 14.41 | 5.85 | −1.03 |
3-RCP45-50 | −5.37 | −2.88 | 2.7 | 9.75 | 16.30 | 21.34 | 24.48 | 24.09 | 19.33 | 11.95 | 3.80 | −3.11 |
3-RCP45-70 | −4.84 | −2.36 | 3.16 | 10.27 | 16.75 | 21.65 | 24.92 | 24.75 | 19.99 | 12.60 | 4.31 | −2.71 |
3-RCP85-50 | −5.12 | −2.82 | 2.73 | 10.06 | 16.79 | 21.64 | 24.57 | 24.23 | 19.71 | 12.47 | 4.21 | −2.81 |
3-RCP85-70 | −3.97 | −1.66 | 3.86 | 11.03 | 17.56 | 22.55 | 25.81 | 25.66 | 21.08 | 13.69 | 5.33 | −1.69 |
4-RCP45-50 | −4.42 | −2.16 | 3.45 | 10.65 | 17.07 | 21.96 | 25.11 | 24.74 | 20.05 | 12.73 | 4.57 | −2.18 |
4-RCP45-70 | −3.72 | −0.89 | 4.58 | 11.57 | 18.16 | 23.06 | 25.93 | 25.51 | 21.04 | 13.66 | 5.22 | −1.83 |
4-RCP85-50 | −4.04 | −1.49 | 4.09 | 11.02 | 17.33 | 22.24 | 25.40 | 25.04 | 20.44 | 13.19 | 4.97 | −1.92 |
4-RCP85-70 | −1.20 | 1.45 | 6.59 | 12.98 | 19.02 | 23.83 | 26.86 | 26.49 | 22.15 | 15.10 | 6.91 | 0.44 |
Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1-RCP45-50 | 1.91 | 5 | 11.31 | 18.67 | 25.75 | 29.83 | 31.42 | 30.90 | 26.79 | 19.92 | 11.03 | 4.08 |
1-RCP45-70 | 2.99 | 5.98 | 12.37 | 19.68 | 26.39 | 30.29 | 32.01 | 31.72 | 27.61 | 20.68 | 11.97 | 5.20 |
1-RCP85-50 | 2.25 | 4.97 | 11.37 | 18.86 | 25.97 | 30.51 | 32.38 | 31.50 | 27.12 | 20.23 | 11.49 | 4.71 |
1-RCP85-70 | 4.09 | 7.05 | 13.40 | 20.86 | 27.86 | 32.04 | 33.73 | 33.13 | 29.14 | 22.31 | 13.32 | 6.32 |
2-RCP45-50 | 2.79 | 5.01 | 11.53 | 19.12 | 25.80 | 29.53 | 31.26 | 31.32 | 27.59 | 21.06 | 12.50 | 5.74 |
2-RCP45-70 | 3.21 | 5.40 | 12.11 | 20.11 | 27.18 | 31.48 | 33.53 | 33.02 | 28.96 | 22.64 | 13.94 | 6.55 |
2-RCP85-50 | 2.98 | 5.53 | 11.76 | 19.36 | 26.18 | 30.32 | 31.74 | 31.12 | 27.40 | 21.13 | 12.75 | 5.88 |
2-RCP85-70 | 4.02 | 6.42 | 12.84 | 20.25 | 27.14 | 31.44 | 33.63 | 33.69 | 29.90 | 23.30 | 14.35 | 7.07 |
3-RCP45-50 | 1.69 | 4.50 | 10.98 | 18.45 | 25.46 | 29.41 | 30.90 | 30.52 | 26.58 | 19.78 | 11.17 | 4.32 |
3-RCP45-70 | 2.22 | 5.02 | 11.42 | 18.97 | 25.93 | 29.71 | 31.35 | 31.19 | 27.25 | 20.43 | 11.69 | 4.73 |
3-RCP85-50 | 1.94 | 4.55 | 10.97 | 18.76 | 25.99 | 29.70 | 31.00 | 30.67 | 26.98 | 20.32 | 11.60 | 4.63 |
3-RCP85-70 | 3.10 | 5.72 | 12.11 | 19.73 | 26.74 | 30.61 | 32.23 | 32.10 | 28.35 | 21.52 | 12.72 | 5.74 |
4-RCP45-50 | 2.79 | 5.67 | 12.47 | 20.15 | 27.08 | 30.76 | 32.16 | 31.92 | 27.95 | 20.76 | 11.77 | 5.13 |
4-RCP45-70 | 4.83 | 8.24 | 14.37 | 21.31 | 28.30 | 31.81 | 32.53 | 32.10 | 28.52 | 21.54 | 12.90 | 6.66 |
4-RCP85-50 | 2.94 | 6.14 | 12.95 | 20.41 | 27.10 | 30.81 | 32.35 | 32.04 | 28 | 20.94 | 12.10 | 5.31 |
4-RCP85-70 | 5.81 | 9.03 | 15.4 | 22.19 | 28.59 | 32.40 | 33.73 | 33.47 | 29.87 | 22.73 | 13.77 | 7.63 |
Station | T | R2 | RMSE |
---|---|---|---|
Baodi | Tmin | 0.868 | 2.917 |
Tmax | 0.877 | 2.66 | |
Tianjin | Tmin | 0.871 | 2.68 |
Tmax | 0.889 | 2.56 | |
Tanggu | Tmin | 0.893 | 2.47 |
Tmax | 0.903 | 2.36 |
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Wang, Y.; Wang, X.; Li, X.; Liu, W.; Yang, Y. Future Climate Prediction Based on Support Vector Machine Optimization in Tianjin, China. Atmosphere 2023, 14, 1235. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081235
Wang Y, Wang X, Li X, Liu W, Yang Y. Future Climate Prediction Based on Support Vector Machine Optimization in Tianjin, China. Atmosphere. 2023; 14(8):1235. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081235
Chicago/Turabian StyleWang, Yang, Xijun Wang, Xiaoling Li, Wei Liu, and Yi Yang. 2023. "Future Climate Prediction Based on Support Vector Machine Optimization in Tianjin, China" Atmosphere 14, no. 8: 1235. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081235