SPAM: Solar Spectrum Prediction for Applications and Modeling
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data
2.1. F Index
2.2. TIMED Spacecraft Data
3. Solar-SPAM: Shortwave Energy Spectrum Model
4. Aero-SPAM: EUV Photon Flux Model for Aeronomic Applications
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
- 1.
- The F index is an excellent indicator of solar activity (Tapping, 2013) and may serve as a reliable proxy for the solar spectrum variations within the limits of the SPAM model applicability 65 < F < 200 s.f.u.
- 2.
- Since the atmosphere is transparent to radiation at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, the F radio flux can be reliably measured from the Earth’s surface in any weather. The time series of the daily F has been available continuously since 1947 for seven solar cycles, so the SPAM model can be applied to large-scale retrospective studies that require solar radiation data.
- 3.
- The F index is predictable, which allows SPAM to forecast the solar spectrum for various operational tasks. There are a number of services providing the forecast of the daily averaged F index, e.g., up to 55 days ahead (http://spaceweather.izmiran.ru/eng/forecasts.html, accessed on 20 November 2022), up to 27 days ahead with open-access forecast (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices, accessed on 20 November 2022) and up to 45 days ahead with 5-day resolution (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/usaf-45-day-ap-and-f107cm-flux-forecast, accessed on 20 November 2022). In addition, there is a long-term monthly average F forecast up to 20 years, including the next solar activity cycle, that can be used for future aeronomy estimations. (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/predicted-sunspot-number-and-radio-flux, accessed on 20 November 2022).
- 4.
- SPAM’s single-variable parameterization is easy to implement. Despite the model simplicity, our results are in good agreement with the measurements.
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
R | RMSE | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1.5 | −4.94024181 | 3.22175699 | −1.80553335 | 0.93 | 2.67305197 |
2.5 | −1.51234762 | 8.72873177 | −3.59300652 | 0.96 | 4.64649582 |
3.5 | −8.19051896 | 4.76131943 | −1.75069528 | 0.96 | 2.57208191 |
4.5 | −1.25299002 | 7.18966612 | −2.30913459 | 0.96 | 3.78321360 |
5.5 | −1.05306909 | 6.00386365 | −1.72945105 | 0.96 | 3.13381799 |
6.5 | −1.24449248 | 7.07626722 | −2.22302072 | 0.96 | 3.69094684 |
7.5 | −2.59694610 | 1.45374662 | −6.31698909 | 0.96 | 7.43469515 |
8.5 | −2.16866639 | 1.21455389 | −4.6505577 | 0.96 | 6.21501074 |
9.5 | −1.52361462 | 8.68533191 | −3.0246892 | 0.96 | 4.53196359 |
10.5 | −1.01521500 | 5.78430109 | −1.79161041 | 0.96 | 3.02874105 |
11.5 | −5.92986152 | 3.39846459 | −7.46323908 | 0.96 | 1.86757596 |
12.5 | −3.91620799 | 2.22633150 | −6.85281881 | 0.96 | 1.16787269 |
13.5 | −3.68662392 | 2.14384736 | −5.53046688 | 0.96 | 1.20433914 |
14.5 | −8.15473279 | 4.56904530 | −1.28641555 | 0.96 | 2.34443139 |
15.5 | −1.05314223 | 5.90337830 | −2.51992115 | 0.96 | 3.02143819 |
16.5 | −1.71833912 | 9.58528730 | −2.37694140 | 0.96 | 4.91384954 |
17.5 | −7.84248508 | 4.35156360 | −6.77832612 | 0.96 | 2.24071577 |
18.5 | −5.35989584 | 2.98171616 | −7.78638812 | 0.96 | 1.53019138 |
19.5 | −5.64009182 | 3.15119971 | −1.24435988 | 0.96 | 1.61351843 |
20.5 | −4.90601610 | 2.74377445 | −1.31174042 | 0.96 | 1.40380060 |
21.5 | −4.26086127 | 2.38514084 | −1.14409417 | 0.96 | 1.22091037 |
22.5 | −3.19159017 | 1.77982999 | −5.49342607 | 0.96 | 9.12119600 |
23.5 | −1.75266637 | 9.77475268 | −2.67796958 | 0.96 | 5.01372608 |
24.5 | −2.43810818 | 1.36192347 | −4.57043670 | 0.96 | 6.97290978 |
25.5 | −3.98387625 | 2.22551933 | −7.70072803 | 0.96 | 1.13958300 |
26.5 | −2.00773403 | 1.12849376 | −5.67602506 | 0.96 | 5.77108499 |
27.5 | −1.19730867 | 5.65394676 | −5.85964757 | 0.94 | 3.19981683 |
28.5 | −1.46295195 | 1.01404261 | −3.58365291 | 0.93 | 8.68678105 |
29.5 | −8.15084563 | 4.34467210 | 3.65433670 | 0.93 | 3.03848274 |
30.5 | −7.05077152 | 4.04741769 | 1.43586031 | 0.94 | 2.75155631 |
31.5 | −7.77266741 | 4.68802536 | 1.08074811 | 0.93 | 3.64885891 |
32.5 | −5.61602010 | 2.83431306 | −3.27491491 | 0.92 | 2.03502960 |
33.5 | 6.11880133 | 6.52060422 | −2.90103367 | 0.91 | 1.14428500 |
34.5 | −2.13887412 | 9.00810935 | −1.41575668 | 0.93 | 5.08999204 |
35.5 | −2.29655541 | 1.06445240 | −3.23960927 | 0.94 | 6.31089521 |
36.5 | −1.69356060 | 1.14642019 | −1.49427472 | 0.93 | 9.15296502 |
37.5 | −4.44754965 | 2.24144087 | 2.29852502 | 0.94 | 1.39955751 |
38.5 | −2.57264554 | 1.20451838 | 1.08315857 | 0.95 | 6.47189724 |
39.5 | −1.90799471 | 8.54129718 | −3.66570920 | 0.95 | 4.29404481 |
40.5 | −1.63110170 | 7.67917532 | 2.48479107 | 0.94 | 4.43317217 |
41.5 | −2.64676272 | 1.61050402 | −5.64014188 | 0.94 | 1.09306430 |
42.5 | −8.80727378 | 5.09406819 | 1.64104876 | 0.94 | 3.40898878 |
43.5 | −1.29810569 | 3.70763160 | 8.20072441 | 0.82 | 7.51972352 |
44.5 | −1.92736419 | 9.35286333 | 2.78944317 | 0.95 | 5.03560346 |
45.5 | −1.07354187 | 5.33853880 | 3.23226206 | 0.94 | 3.25167635 |
46.5 | 7.14925370 | 2.28505089 | 1.60620921 | 0.85 | 7.85818717 |
47.5 | −1.65354143 | 7.61012429 | 3.10560608 | 0.95 | 3.96736808 |
48.5 | −3.12973348 | 1.39150026 | 3.17305408 | 0.95 | 6.77782659 |
49.5 | −8.48676578 | 3.82780831 | −8.99955570 | 0.95 | 1.84750385 |
50.5 | −6.92148698 | 3.05273387 | −2.21022224 | 0.95 | 1.42588987 |
51.5 | −3.52451773 | 1.49567940 | −2.77810793 | 0.95 | 6.67205223 |
52.5 | −4.88285423 | 2.06597500 | −5.71616451 | 0.95 | 9.23676788 |
53.5 | −1.51950475 | 6.22135728 | 4.00946070 | 0.92 | 3.69972956 |
54.5 | −1.47270077 | 5.88009296 | 1.18884773 | 0.95 | 2.61720547 |
55.5 | −2.67639507 | 9.72464276 | 2.22162082 | 0.63 | 1.37799232 |
56.5 | −1.01960607 | 4.67610258 | 3.41494514 | 0.93 | 2.80937628 |
57.5 | −1.61974440 | 6.72143036 | 1.17127082 | 0.95 | 3.07827728 |
58.5 | −1.01763203 | 4.54759489 | 1.65241671 | 0.91 | 3.09599754 |
59.5 | −1.56307209 | 6.36007172 | 3.86630485 | 0.92 | 3.58530411 |
60.5 | −6.00806861 | 2.63372194 | 5.64617215 | 0.94 | 1.45080898 |
61.5 | −6.04959878 | 2.45041951 | −1.62883930 | 0.94 | 1.21428067 |
62.5 | −6.49554222 | 2.79301792 | 1.91126658 | 0.89 | 2.08911118 |
63.5 | −4.82850036 | 1.71382019 | 2.02470800 | 0.75 | 1.67842699 |
64.5 | −1.06653492 | 4.22914685 | 1.50553273 | 0.94 | 2.03369385 |
65.5 | −8.18714565 | 3.40516816 | 1.66550540 | 0.94 | 1.76539694 |
66.5 | −9.90389288 | 4.04518744 | 1.56394010 | 0.94 | 1.96591466 |
67.5 | −9.41472141 | 3.78395774 | 8.82049866 | 0.94 | 1.80481835 |
68.5 | −8.29145674 | 3.45290364 | 5.19960242 | 0.82 | 3.44043640 |
69.5 | −1.37956080 | 5.60239688 | 1.65024766 | 0.94 | 2.65869617 |
70.5 | −1.01440668 | 4.37751602 | 9.44754103 | 0.79 | 4.90083335 |
71.5 | −8.82187053 | 3.44490090 | 2.44945919 | 0.92 | 1.89763276 |
72.5 | −1.38052514 | 5.94292750 | 4.19292916 | 0.95 | 2.87817244 |
73.5 | −4.91176916 | 2.32864269 | 1.44437460 | 0.94 | 1.39806401 |
74.5 | −6.46953103 | 2.83325477 | 2.59377737 | 0.93 | 1.66218244 |
75.5 | −7.34309741 | 3.29461087 | 4.00460892 | 0.90 | 2.45820894 |
76.5 | −3.05657856 | 2.93068006 | 1.40723930 | 0.74 | 6.32637967 |
77.5 | 5.43557600 | 2.19484499 | 1.18134495 | 0.89 | 5.64382540 |
78.5 | −8.51779066 | 5.79401798 | 1.63692915 | 0.82 | 8.43951888 |
79.5 | −2.21722606 | 8.88851417 | 8.27783879 | 0.89 | 6.07167204 |
80.5 | −1.65576278 | 7.79627572 | 5.66367756 | 0.94 | 4.44114376 |
81.5 | −1.92487027 | 8.70304770 | 5.81788594 | 0.93 | 5.12896384 |
82.5 | −2.51845067 | 1.14456368 | 6.30086163 | 0.94 | 6.49515749 |
83.5 | −4.38140196 | 1.97591643 | 1.99037756 | 0.90 | 1.48395770 |
84.5 | −3.73488547 | 1.70436208 | 8.14608828 | 0.94 | 9.68131273 |
85.5 | −4.33366783 | 2.09399580 | 9.28690005 | 0.94 | 1.21724813 |
86.5 | −4.84412766 | 2.36665683 | 1.09788284 | 0.94 | 1.44126953 |
87.5 | −4.83254202 | 2.68350608 | 1.39973835 | 0.94 | 1.85920378 |
88.5 | −6.21282703 | 3.37561898 | 1.45738166 | 0.94 | 2.27765383 |
89.5 | −6.68966301 | 3.86462205 | 1.63709915 | 0.93 | 2.80715372 |
90.5 | −9.40447671 | 4.91524881 | 1.81668436 | 0.93 | 3.38519060 |
91.5 | −7.89804624 | 4.23827993 | 1.56806295 | 0.94 | 2.81369582 |
92.5 | −2.51717440 | 1.25207391 | 7.46452895 | 0.95 | 7.21226067 |
93.5 | −2.52576412 | 1.27365730 | 7.86103295 | 0.95 | 7.08295267 |
94.5 | −1.68630601 | 8.97996451 | 6.01452925 | 0.95 | 5.30470738 |
95.5 | −1.71120327 | 8.22690427 | 4.20933726 | 0.95 | 4.36420483 |
96.5 | −1.16976002 | 5.79214134 | 3.16068207 | 0.95 | 3.17857028 |
97.5 | −9.42103907 | 7.84156346 | 6.35681772 | 0.89 | 9.05302834 |
98.5 | −1.74979936 | 9.39505851 | 8.37957920 | 0.94 | 6.18586716 |
99.5 | −3.06874683 | 1.63261897 | 1.00132945 | 0.95 | 9.92576035 |
100.5 | −2.08354284 | 1.12300476 | 1.82943275 | 0.95 | 6.70876385 |
101.5 | −2.22515562 | 1.04514427 | 5.86589870 | 0.95 | 5.33557018 |
102.5 | −1.34390246 | 8.98461854 | 3.81054263 | 0.92 | 7.66619612 |
103.5 | −1.01901721 | 6.79827099 | 4.51530159 | 0.94 | 5.22679531 |
104.5 | −4.18859821 | 1.89817197 | 3.18890523 | 0.95 | 9.38122529 |
105.5 | −2.54275033 | 1.20088332 | 6.60009868 | 0.96 | 5.89125254 |
106.5 | −2.43809593 | 1.18160635 | 7.74794070 | 0.96 | 5.90449142 |
107.5 | −2.33163874 | 1.20516330 | 9.87441885 | 0.95 | 6.87291920 |
108.5 | −3.69477413 | 2.17542411 | 1.10904940 | 0.96 | 1.26819431 |
109.5 | −2.81707873 | 1.45887138 | 9.82531461 | 0.95 | 7.99552250 |
110.5 | −9.10934796 | 1.04423228 | 1.44644224 | 0.92 | 1.08652364 |
111.5 | −1.66854605 | 1.18197160 | 1.27341149 | 0.95 | 8.46551633 |
112.5 | −1.97256040 | 1.22023811 | 1.39870362 | 0.95 | 8.24895534 |
113.5 | −1.84532308 | 1.04923564 | 7.42101884 | 0.95 | 6.63927760 |
114.5 | −1.82255068 | 1.00964734 | 1.09676338 | 0.95 | 5.83301149 |
115.5 | −1.79977830 | 9.70059057 | 1.45142487 | 0.95 | 5.79507535 |
116.5 | −1.14063699 | 6.14789756 | 2.11095772 | 0.95 | 3.67271760 |
117.5 | −1.19813939 | 5.28441463 | 5.22879409 | 0.95 | 2.46827715 |
118.5 | −3.17606335 | 1.43250820 | 2.42879319 | 0.95 | 6.91404625 |
119.5 | −5.07968379 | 2.73788903 | 3.79524397 | 0.95 | 1.63559867 |
120.5 | −3.91694650 | 1.76667070 | 4.67276673 | 0.95 | 8.52689227 |
121.5 | −2.10473407 | 3.12348452 | 4.59160841 | 0.91 | 3.68717499 |
122.5 | −9.24069369 | 4.16785440 | 4.09787537 | 0.95 | 2.01162816 |
123.5 | −6.22067015 | 2.80572523 | 2.53756139 | 0.95 | 1.35419220 |
124.5 | −4.72854326 | 2.13272731 | 1.79398692 | 0.95 | 1.02936761 |
125.5 | −2.37088928 | 1.27788104 | 2.05651276 | 0.95 | 7.63398559 |
126.5 | −7.26808556 | 3.27814376 | 1.76920985 | 0.95 | 1.58220650 |
127.5 | −1.57815999 | 8.50609426 | 1.52935833 | 0.95 | 5.08149030 |
128.5 | −1.17377545 | 6.32650980 | 1.23296767 | 0.95 | 3.77941945 |
129.5 | −5.73834119 | 7.57079693 | 1.75886126 | 0.93 | 7.63296694 |
130.5 | −1.24053248 | 5.70638506 | 1.20965081 | 0.91 | 4.16222369 |
131.5 | −2.12721218 | 9.61118248 | 1.95150657 | 0.91 | 6.62435421 |
132.5 | −1.07001857 | 6.29334120 | 1.62571838 | 0.90 | 5.67873985 |
133.5 | −8.94382834 | 8.71939234 | 1.31975911 | 0.94 | 7.54203153 |
134.5 | −8.35494200 | 6.28665121 | 1.35754292 | 0.88 | 7.29144198 |
135.5 | −1.25088026 | 8.54845405 | 3.77824430 | 0.90 | 8.81264590 |
136.5 | −9.79967900 | 7.22954986 | 2.10731394 | 0.90 | 7.68205303 |
137.5 | −1.24013546 | 7.97949440 | 2.37165611 | 0.91 | 7.11357554 |
138.5 | −7.39876006 | 5.55570063 | 2.54832371 | 0.87 | 6.99090195 |
139.5 | −9.49205508 | 4.89958571 | 4.33705249 | 0.96 | 2.54613277 |
140.5 | − | 3.05432744 | 0.95 | 1.88073609 | |
141.5 | − | 1.13736869 | 0.90 | 8.95784614 | |
142.5 | − | 1.01825495 | 0.83 | 1.18926525 | |
143.5 | − | 1.15175318 | 0.88 | 1.00877166 | |
144.5 | − | 8.93582633 | 0.86 | 9.81989792 | |
145.5 | − | 1.38512452 | 0.89 | 1.19372564 | |
146.5 | − | 1.36559581 | 0.89 | 1.27366067 | |
147.5 | − | 1.39066818 | 0.89 | 1.35250470 | |
148.5 | − | 1.56053330 | 0.87 | 1.51332205 | |
149.5 | − | 1.24944106 | 0.83 | 1.51364906 | |
150.5 | − | 1.21205065 | 0.80 | 1.52268475 | |
151.5 | − | 1.16236962 | 0.80 | 1.65675848 | |
152.5 | − | 2.37558655 | 0.91 | 2.01495486 | |
153.5 | − | 1.71988954 | 0.88 | 2.21903105 | |
154.5 | − | 6.16487236 | 0.93 | 4.36900801 | |
155.5 | − | 2.92214578 | 0.92 | 3.20494890 | |
156.5 | − | 2.51428725 | 0.85 | 2.85808410 | |
157.5 | − | 1.48582781 | 0.77 | 2.79008511 | |
158.5 | − | 1.46877406 | 0.74 | 2.69140338 | |
159.5 | − | 1.10698536 | 0.73 | 2.59598688 | |
160.5 | − | 1.26638098 | 0.77 | 2.80522066 | |
161.5 | − | 1.37610016 | 0.65 | 3.39322701 | |
162.5 | − | 2.82618134 | 0.82 | 3.76275218 | |
163.5 | − | 2.30331717 | 0.83 | 4.07902394 | |
164.5 | − | 3.37772150 | 0.86 | 4.56771102 | |
165.5 | − | 2.97227900 | 0.76 | 7.93202201 | |
166.5 | 8.57496540 | 0.51 | 5.05815432 | ||
167.5 | − | 3.39319234 | 0.81 | 6.73876290 | |
168.5 | − | 2.79935936 | 0.66 | 6.38829474 | |
169.5 | 2.01744392 | 0.64 | 8.70736220 | ||
170.5 | − | 4.32779772 | 0.68 | 1.01094842 | |
171.5 | − | 4.47020613 | 0.70 | 1.06043009 | |
172.5 | − | 3.72615949 | 0.60 | 1.23238287 | |
173.5 | 2.79814116 | 0.61 | 1.18627791 | ||
174.5 | − | 3.92089797 | 0.61 | 1.50705494 | |
175.5 | − | 5.06896902 | 0.60 | 1.97468460 | |
176.5 | − | 6.78269058 | 0.59 | 2.01888857 | |
177.5 | 1.79727927 | 0.47 | |||
178.5 | 0.48 | ||||
179.5 | 0.54 | ||||
180.5 | − | 0.62 | |||
181.5 | − | 0.66 | |||
182.5 | 0.46 | ||||
183.5 | − | 0.45 | |||
184.5 | − | 0.47 | |||
185.5 | − | 0.44 | |||
186.5 | − | 0.44 | |||
187.5 | 0.35 | ||||
188.5 | 0.46 | ||||
189.5 | − | 0.51 |
No | , nm | , nm | R | RMSE | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 5 | 10 | − | − | 0.96 | ||
2 | 10 | 15 | − | − | 0.96 | ||
3 | 15 | 20 | − | − | 0.96 | ||
4 | 20 | 25 | − | − | 0.96 | ||
5 | 25.6 | − | − | 0.96 | |||
6 | 28.4 | − | − | 0.92 | |||
7 | 25 | 30 | − | − | 0.96 | ||
8 | 30.3 | − | 0.94 | ||||
9 | 30 | 35 | − | − | 0.93 | ||
10 | 36.8 | − | − | 0.93 | |||
11 | 35 | 40 | − | − | 0.94 | ||
12 | 40 | 45 | − | 0.95 | |||
13 | 46.5 | − | 0.84 | ||||
14 | 45 | 50 | − | 0.96 | |||
15 | 50 | 55 | − | − | 0.96 | ||
16 | 55.4 | − | 0.60 | ||||
17 | 58.4 | − | 0.91 | ||||
18 | 55 | 60 | − | 0.94 | |||
19 | 60.9 | − | 0.94 | ||||
20 | 62.9 | − | 0.89 | ||||
21 | 60 | 65 | − | 0.90 | |||
22 | 65 | 70 | − | 0.93 | |||
23 | 70.3 | − | 0.78 | ||||
24 | 70 | 75 | − | 0.94 | |||
25 | 76.5 | − | 0.72 | ||||
26 | 77 | − | 0.88 | ||||
27 | 78.9 | − | 0.81 | ||||
28 | 75 | 80 | − | 0.89 | |||
29 | 80 | 85 | − | 0.94 | |||
30 | 85 | 90 | − | 0.94 | |||
31 | 90 | 95 | − | 0.95 | |||
32 | 97.8 | − | 0.90 | ||||
33 | 95 | 100 | − | 0.95 | |||
34 | 102.6 | − | 0.93 | ||||
35 | 103.2 | − | 0.94 | ||||
36 | 100 | 105 | − | 0.96 | |||
37 | 121.6 | − | 0.92 |
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Nikolaeva, V.; Gordeev, E. SPAM: Solar Spectrum Prediction for Applications and Modeling. Atmosphere 2023, 14, 226. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020226
Nikolaeva V, Gordeev E. SPAM: Solar Spectrum Prediction for Applications and Modeling. Atmosphere. 2023; 14(2):226. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020226
Chicago/Turabian StyleNikolaeva, Vera, and Evgeny Gordeev. 2023. "SPAM: Solar Spectrum Prediction for Applications and Modeling" Atmosphere 14, no. 2: 226. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020226
APA StyleNikolaeva, V., & Gordeev, E. (2023). SPAM: Solar Spectrum Prediction for Applications and Modeling. Atmosphere, 14(2), 226. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020226