Decadal Application of WRF/Chem under Future Climate and Emission Scenarios: Impacts of Technology-Driven Climate and Emission Changes on Regional Meteorology and Air Quality
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Model Description and Simulation Setup
3. Technology Driver Model (TDM) for Emission Projections
4. Impacts of TDM/A1B and TDM/B2 on Future Climate, Clouds, and Air Quality
4.1. Impacts on Climate Variables
4.2. Impacts on Air Quality Variables
4.3. Impacts on Air Quality Exceedance Days
4.4. Impacts on Cloud-Aerosol Variables
5. Impacts of Climate vs. Emission Changes on Future Air Quality
6. Summary
7. Discussion
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
AER/AFWA | Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc. and Air Force Weather Agency |
AQCHEM AQ | chemistry module based on CMAQ v4.7 |
BASE_EVAL | Base Evaluation model simulation in this work |
BASE_TDM | Base TDM reference model simulation in this work |
BC | Black Carbon |
BCONs | Boundary Conditions |
BVOCs | Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds |
CB05 | Carbon Bond Mechanism 2005 |
CCN | Cloud Condensation Nuclei |
CCN5 | Cloud Condensation Nuclei at Supersaturation 0.5% |
CDNC | Cloud Droplet Number Concentration |
CESM/CAM | Community Earth System Model/Community Atmosphere Model |
CF | Cloud Fraction |
CLM | Community Land Model |
CLIM_EMIS_A1B | Future A1B climate + TDM/A1B scenario emissions model simulation in this work |
CLIM_EMIS_B2 | Future B2 climate + TDM/B2 scenario emissions model simulation in this work |
CONUS | Contiguous United States |
COT | Cloud Optical Thickness |
CWP | Cloud Water Path |
DA24h | Daily Average 24-h |
EMIS_A1B | Future TDM/A1B scenario emissions model simulation in this work |
EMIS_B2 | Future TDM/B2 scenario emissions model simulation in this work |
EPA | Environmental Protection Agency |
FTUV | Fast Troposphere Ultraviolet Visible |
GCMs | Global Climate Models |
GHG | Greenhouse Gases |
ICONs | Initial Conditions |
IPCC | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
LSM | Land Surface Model |
LW | Longwave (Radiation) |
MADE/VBS | Modal Aerosol Dynamics Model/Volatility Basis Set |
MDA8 | Maximum Daily Average 8-h |
MEGAN | Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature |
MSKF | Multi-Scale Kain Fritsch |
NAAQS | National Ambient Air Quality Standard |
Noah | National Center for Environmental Prediction, Oregon State University, Air Force and Hydrologic Research Lab |
NCEP/FNL | National Centers for Environmental Prediction Final Analysis Dataset |
NEI | National Emissions Inventory |
OA | Organic Aerosol |
OLR | Outgoing Longwave Radiation at the Top of the Atmosphere |
PBL | Planetary Boundary Layer |
PBLH | Planetary Boundary Layer Height |
PM | Particulate Matter |
POA | Primary Organic Aerosol |
PRECIP | Precipitation (Total) |
Q2 | 2-m Water Vapor Mixing Ratio |
RCP | Representative Concentration Pathways |
RRTMG | Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for GCMs |
SOA | Secondary Organic Aerosol |
SPEW-Trend | Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard-Trend |
SRES | Special Report on Emissions Scenarios |
SW | Shortwave (Radiation) |
SWCF | Shortwave Cloud Forcing |
SWDOWN | Downward Shortwave Radiation |
T2 | 2-m Temperature |
TNMVOCs | Total Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds |
TDM | Technology Driver Model |
TSOA | Total Secondary Organic Aerosol |
VOCs | Volatile Organic Compounds |
WHO | World Health Organization |
WRF/Chem | Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry |
WS10 | 10-m Wind Speeds |
YSU | Yonsei University |
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Simulation Index | Emission Scenario | Anthro. Emissions | Climate Conditions | Purpose or Impact Assessment | Reference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
BASE_EVAL | None | NEI 2002, 2005, and 2008 | 2001–2010 | Model performance evaluation | [29] |
BASE_TDM | None | TDM Base 2005 | 2001–2010 | Benchmark for other scenarios | This work |
EMIS_A1B | TDM/ A1B | TDM/A1B 2046–2055 | 2001–2010 | TDM/A1B Emissions Only (compared to BASE_TDM) | This work |
EMIS_B2 | TDM/B2 | TDM/B2 2046–2055 | 2001–2010 | TDM/B2 Emissions Only (compared to BASE_TDM) | This work |
CLIM_A1B * | TDM/A1B | TDM/A1B 2046–2055 | 2046–2055 | A1B Climate Only (compared to EMIS_A1B) | This work |
CLIM_B2 * | TDM/B2 | TDM/B2 2046–2055 | 2046–2055 | B2 Climate Only (compared to EMIS_B2) | This work |
CLIM_EMIS_A1B | A1B | TDM/A1B 2046–2055 | 2046–2055 | A1B Climate + TDM/A1B Emissions (compared to BASE_TDM) | This work |
CLIM_EMIS_B2 | B2 | TDM/B2 2046–2055 | 2046–2055 | B2 Climate + TDM/B2 Emissions (compared to BASE_TDM) | This work |
Model Attributes | Configuration |
---|---|
Model | Online-coupled WRF/Chem v3.7 |
Domain and resolutions | 36 km × 36 km, 148 × 112 horizontal resolution over the continental US with 34 layers vertically from surface to 100 hpa |
Simulation period | Current decade 2001–2010 and future decade 2046–2055 |
Physics and Chemistry options [Reference(s)] | |
Radiation | Rapid and accurate Radiative Transfer Model for GCM (RRTMG) SW and LW [30,31] |
Boundary layer | Yonsei University (YSU) [32,33] |
Land surface model | National Center for Environmental Prediction, Oregon State University, Air Force and Hydrologic Research Lab (Noah) [34,35] |
Microphysics | Morrison double moment scheme [36] |
Cumulus parameterization | Multi-Scale Kain Fritsch (MSKF) [37] |
Gas-phase chemistry | Modified CB05 with updated chlorine chemistry [38,39] |
Photolysis | Fast Troposphere Ultraviolet Visible (FTUV) [40] |
Aqueous-phase chemistry | AQ chemistry module (AQCHEM) based on CMAQv4.7 implementation for both resolved and convective clouds |
Aerosol module | Modal Aerosol Dynamics Model/Volatility Basis Set(MADE/VBS) [41,42] |
Aerosol activation | Abdul-Razzak and Ghan [43] |
Inputs [Reference(s)] | |
Chemical and meteorological ICs/BCs | Downscaled from the Modified Community Earth System Model/Community Atmosphere model (CESM/CAM5) v1.2.2; Meteorology ICONs/BCONs bias-corrected with NCEP/FNL. [44,45] |
Anthropogenic emissions | U.S. EPA National Emissions Inventory 2002, 2005, 2008 for the current decade; TDM-projected growth factor under the IPCC/A1B and B2 scenarios based on 2005 emission. [25] and [46] |
Biogenic emissions | Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature version 2 (MEGAN v2) [47] |
Dust emissions | Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc. and Air Force Weather Agency (AER/AFWA) [48,49] |
Sea-salt emissions | Gong et al. parameterization [50] |
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Jena, C.; Zhang, Y.; Wang, K.; Campbell, P.C. Decadal Application of WRF/Chem under Future Climate and Emission Scenarios: Impacts of Technology-Driven Climate and Emission Changes on Regional Meteorology and Air Quality. Atmosphere 2023, 14, 225. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020225
Jena C, Zhang Y, Wang K, Campbell PC. Decadal Application of WRF/Chem under Future Climate and Emission Scenarios: Impacts of Technology-Driven Climate and Emission Changes on Regional Meteorology and Air Quality. Atmosphere. 2023; 14(2):225. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020225
Chicago/Turabian StyleJena, Chinmay, Yang Zhang, Kai Wang, and Patrick C. Campbell. 2023. "Decadal Application of WRF/Chem under Future Climate and Emission Scenarios: Impacts of Technology-Driven Climate and Emission Changes on Regional Meteorology and Air Quality" Atmosphere 14, no. 2: 225. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020225