Next Article in Journal
Kinetics of the Reactions of Ozone with Halogen Atoms in the Stratosphere
Next Article in Special Issue
Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization in the Simulation of Indian Summer Monsoon Using RegCM4
Previous Article in Journal
Influence of Population Income and Climate on Air Pollution in Cities Due to Buildings: The Case of Spain
Article

Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in Iran from the CMIP6 Ensemble

1
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Chonnam National University, Gwangju 61186, Korea
2
Department of Geography, Urmia University, Urmia 009844, Iran
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Sridhara Nayak and Netrananda Sahu
Atmosphere 2021, 12(8), 1052; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12081052
Received: 8 July 2021 / Revised: 11 August 2021 / Accepted: 11 August 2021 / Published: 16 August 2021
Scientists who want to know future climate can use multimodel ensemble (MME) methods that combine projections from individual simulation models. To predict the future changes of extreme rainfall in Iran, we examined the observations and 24 models of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over the Middle East. We applied generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to series of annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP1) data obtained from both of models and the observations. We also employed multivariate bias-correction under three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios (namely, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We used a model averaging method that takes both performance and independence of model into account, which is called PI-weighting. Return levels for 20 and 50 years, as well as the return periods of the AMP1 relative to the reference years (1971–2014), were estimated for three future periods. These are period 1 (2021–2050), period 2 (2046–2075), and period 3 (2071–2100). From this study, we predict that over Iran the relative increases of 20-year return level of the AMP1 in the spatial median from the past observations to the year 2100 will be approximately 15.6% in the SSP2-4.5, 23.2% in the SSP3-7.0, and 28.7% in the SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. We also realized that a 1-in-20 year (or 1-in-50 year) AMP1 observed in the reference years in Iran will likely become a 1-in-12 (1-in-26) year, a 1-in-10 (1-in-22) year, and a 1-in-9 (1-in-20) year event by 2100 under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. We project that heavy rainfall will be more prominent in the western and southwestern parts of Iran. View Full-Text
Keywords: bias correction; exceedance probability; expected waiting time; heavy rainfall; L-moment estimation; return period bias correction; exceedance probability; expected waiting time; heavy rainfall; L-moment estimation; return period
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Hong, J.; Javan, K.; Shin, Y.; Park, J.-S. Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in Iran from the CMIP6 Ensemble. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 1052. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12081052

AMA Style

Hong J, Javan K, Shin Y, Park J-S. Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in Iran from the CMIP6 Ensemble. Atmosphere. 2021; 12(8):1052. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12081052

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hong, Juyoung, Khadijeh Javan, Yonggwan Shin, and Jeong-Soo Park. 2021. "Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in Iran from the CMIP6 Ensemble" Atmosphere 12, no. 8: 1052. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12081052

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop