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Article

Observed and Future Precipitation and Evapotranspiration in Water Management Zones of Uganda: CMIP6 Projections

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Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kyambogo University, P.O. Box 1, Kyambogo, Kampala, Uganda
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Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
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Organization of African Academic Doctors (OAAD), Off Kamiti Road, P.O. Box 25305-00100, Nairobi, Kenya
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Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
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International Water Research Institute, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Lot 660, Hay Moulay Rachid, Marrakech, Ben Guerir 43150, Morocco
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Department of Civil Engineering, KU Leuven, Kasteelpark Arenberg 40, B-3001 Leuven, Belgium
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Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Paolo Stocchi
Atmosphere 2021, 12(7), 887; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070887
Received: 26 May 2021 / Revised: 27 June 2021 / Accepted: 5 July 2021 / Published: 8 July 2021
(This article belongs to the Section Climatology)
We used CMIP6 GCMs to quantify climate change impacts on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) across water management zones (WMZs) in Uganda. Future changes are assessed based on four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios including SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 over the periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100. Both precipitation and PET are generally projected to increase across all the WMZs. Annual PET in the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, 2090s will increase in the ranges 1.1–4.0%, 4.8–7.9%, 5.1–11.8%, and 5.3–17.1%, respectively. For the respective periods, annual precipitation will increase in the ranges 4.0–7.8%, 7.8–12.5%, 7.9–19.9%, and 6.9–26.3%. The lower and upper limits of these change ranges for both precipitation and PET are, respectively, derived under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Climate change will impact on PET or precipitation disproportionately across the WMZs. While the eastern WMZ (Kyoga) will experience the largest projected precipitation increase especially towards the end of the century, the southern WMZ (Victoria) exhibited the largest PET increase. Our findings are relevant for understanding hydrological impacts of climate change across Uganda, in the background of global warming. Thus, the water sector should devise and implement adaptation measures to impede future socioeconomic and environmental crises in the country. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; CMIP6 projections; precipitation; evapotranspiration; water management zones; Uganda climate change; CMIP6 projections; precipitation; evapotranspiration; water management zones; Uganda
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MDPI and ACS Style

Onyutha, C.; Asiimwe, A.; Ayugi, B.; Ngoma, H.; Ongoma, V.; Tabari, H. Observed and Future Precipitation and Evapotranspiration in Water Management Zones of Uganda: CMIP6 Projections. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 887. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070887

AMA Style

Onyutha C, Asiimwe A, Ayugi B, Ngoma H, Ongoma V, Tabari H. Observed and Future Precipitation and Evapotranspiration in Water Management Zones of Uganda: CMIP6 Projections. Atmosphere. 2021; 12(7):887. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070887

Chicago/Turabian Style

Onyutha, Charles, Arnold Asiimwe, Brian Ayugi, Hamida Ngoma, Victor Ongoma, and Hossein Tabari. 2021. "Observed and Future Precipitation and Evapotranspiration in Water Management Zones of Uganda: CMIP6 Projections" Atmosphere 12, no. 7: 887. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070887

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