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Open AccessArticle

Assimilation of Radar Data, Pseudo Water Vapor, and Potential Temperature in a 3DVAR Framework for Improving Precipitation Forecast of Severe Weather Events

1
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2
Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan 430205, China
3
NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK 73072, USA
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2020, 11(2), 182; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11020182
Received: 1 January 2020 / Revised: 4 February 2020 / Accepted: 4 February 2020 / Published: 9 February 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Radar Hydrology and QPE Uncertainties)
An improved approach to derive pseudo water vapor mass mixing ratio and in- cloud potential temperature was developed in this paper to better initialize numerical weather prediction (NWP) and build convective-scale predictions of severe weather events. The process included several steps. The first was to identify areas of deep moist convection, utilizing Vertically Integrated Liquid water (VIL) derived from a mosaicked 3D radar reflectivity field. Then, pseudo- water vapor and pseudo- in- cloud potential temperature observations were derived based on the VIL. For potential temperature, the latent heat initialization for stratiform cloud and moist adiabatic initialization for deep moist convection were used based on a cloud analysis method. The third step was to assimilate the derived pseudo- water vapor and potential temperature observations, together with radar radial velocity and reflectivity into a convective-scale NWP model during data assimilation cycles spanning several hours. Finally, 3-h forecasts were launched each hour during the data assimilation period. The effects of radar data and pseudo- observation assimilation on the prediction of rainfall associated with convective systems surrounding the Meiyu front in 2018 were explored using two real cases. Two sets of experiments, each including several experiments in each real case, were designed to compare the effects of assimilation radar and pseudo- observations on the ensuing forecasts. Relative to the control experiment without data assimilation and radar experiment, the analyses and forecasts of convections were found to be improved for the two Meiyu front cases after pseudo- water vapor and potential temperature information was assimilated.
Keywords: data assimilation; radar data; pseudo- observations; deep convection data assimilation; radar data; pseudo- observations; deep convection
MDPI and ACS Style

Lai, A.; Min, J.; Gao, J.; Ma, H.; Cui, C.; Xiao, Y.; Wang, Z. Assimilation of Radar Data, Pseudo Water Vapor, and Potential Temperature in a 3DVAR Framework for Improving Precipitation Forecast of Severe Weather Events. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 182.

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