Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections Show Stronger Warming for Germany
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Method
3. Data
4. Results
4.1. Comparing Global and Regional Change Signals
4.2. Comparing Regional CMIP5 and CMIP6 Signals
4.3. Internal Model-Chain Variability
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A. Additional Figures
References
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Model | Reasons for Change in ECS since CMIP5 |
---|---|
MPI-ESM1.2 | Tuned with cloud parameters to be the same as CMIP5. Pretuned version had ECS = 7 caused by a positive low-cloud feedback in the tropics. |
EC-Earth3 | Early indications of the role of cloud-aerosol interactions. |
CanESM5 | Large increase since CMIP5 model (3.7–5.6)—at least half seems to be related to cloud feedback increase. |
NorESM2-LM | Small decrease since CMIP5 model (2.9–2.5), which is not yet understood. |
CMIP5 | CMIP6 | |
---|---|---|
CanESM | CanESM2 (r1 to r5) | CanESM5 [23,24,25] (r1 to r10) |
EC-EARTH | EC-EARTH [26] (r2, r9, r12) | EC-EARTH3-veg [27,28,29,30] (r1, r4, r6, r9, r11, r13, r15) |
MPI-ESM | MPI-ESM-LR (r1 to r3) | MPI-ESM1-2-HR [31,32,33] (r1 and r2) |
NorESM | NCC-NorESM1-M (r1) | NorESM2-LM [34,35,36] (r1 to r3) |
CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 | tas (Change in °C) | pr (Change in %) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2071–2100 | MAM | JJA | SON | DJF | year | MAM | JJA | SON | DJF | year |
CanESM | −0.6 | −0.2 | −0.8 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −28 | −30 | −19 | −18 | −24 |
EC-EARTH | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −0.7 | −0.5 | −11 | −10 | 10 | 10 | −2 |
MPI-ESM | −0.4 | −0.3 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.3 | 3 | −4 | −3 | −3 | −3 |
NorESM | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.7 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −3 | 6 | −17 | 9 | −7 |
CMIP5 RCP8.5 | tas (Change in °C) | pr (Change in %) | ||||||||
2071–2100 | MAM | JJA | SON | DJF | year | MAM | JJA | SON | DJF | year |
CanESM | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.3 | −11 | −13 | −7 | −8 | −12 |
EC-EARTH | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.4 | 0 | −4 | 15 | 6 | −3 |
MPI-ESM | −0.4 | −0.6 | −0.8 | −0.2 | −0.6 | 12 | 9 | −2 | 0 | 4 |
NorESM | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 10 | 19 | 20 | 9 | 15 |
SSP5-8.5/RCP8.5 | tas (Change in °C) | pr (Change in %) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2041–2070 | MAM | JJA | SON | DJF | year | MAM | JJA | SON | DJF | year |
CanESM | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | −7 | −2 | 2 | 0 | −1 |
EC-EARTH | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.3 | −1 | −3 | 0 | −2 | −1 |
MPI-ESM | −0.3 | −0.1 | 0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | 2 | −1 | 0 | −5 | −1 |
NorESM | −0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | −7 | 5 | −18 | 9 | −4 |
SSP5-8.5/RCP8.5 | tas (Change in °C) | pr (Change in %) | ||||||||
2071–2100 | MAM | JJA | SON | DJF | year | MAM | JJA | SON | DJF | year |
CanESM | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.7 | −10 | −1 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
EC-EARTH | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.1 | −5 | −2 | −2 | 3 | −1 |
MPI-ESM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | −0.1 | 0.3 | −6 | −7 | −3 | −8 | −5 |
NorESM | −0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | −0.1 | 0.1 | 11 | −12 | −10 | 13 | −1 |
SSP2-4.5/RCP4.5 | tas (Change in °C) | pr (Change in %) | ||||||||
2041–2070 | MAM | JJA | SON | DJF | year | MAM | JJA | SON | DJF | year |
CanESM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | −4 | 3 | −2 | 0 | 0 |
EC-EARTH | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | −2 | 3 |
MPI-ESM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | −0.2 | 0.3 | 8 | −9 | −6 | −9 | −4 |
NorESM | −0.8 | 0.2 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.2 | 0 | −1 | −4 | 8 | 0 |
SSP2-4.5/RCP4.5 | tas (Change in °C) | pr (Change in %) | ||||||||
2071–2100 | MAM | JJA | SON | DJF | year | MAM | JJA | SON | DJF | year |
CanESM | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | −3 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4 |
EC-EARTH | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | −3 | −2 | 0 | −2 | 0 |
MPI-ESM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 7 | −2 | −18 | −9 | −3 |
NorESM | −0.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.3 | −0.1 | 0 | −9 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
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Kreienkamp, F.; Lorenz, P.; Geiger, T. Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections Show Stronger Warming for Germany. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 1245. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11111245
Kreienkamp F, Lorenz P, Geiger T. Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections Show Stronger Warming for Germany. Atmosphere. 2020; 11(11):1245. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11111245
Chicago/Turabian StyleKreienkamp, Frank, Philip Lorenz, and Tobias Geiger. 2020. "Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections Show Stronger Warming for Germany" Atmosphere 11, no. 11: 1245. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11111245