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Combinatorial Optimization for WRF Physical Parameterization Schemes: A Case Study of Three-Day Typhoon Simulations over the Northwest Pacific Ocean

1
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
3
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2019, 10(5), 233; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10050233
Received: 21 March 2019 / Revised: 18 April 2019 / Accepted: 23 April 2019 / Published: 1 May 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model)
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Abstract

Quantifying a set of suitable physics parameterization schemes for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is essential for obtaining highly accurate typhoon forecasts. In this study, a systematic Tukey-based combinatorial optimization method was proposed to determine the optimal physics schemes of the WRF model for 15 typhoon simulations over the Northwest Pacific Ocean, covering all available schemes of microphysics (MP), cumulus (CU), and planetary boundary layer (PBL) physical processes. Results showed that 284 scheme combination searches were sufficient to find the optimal scheme combinations for simulations of track (km), central sea level pressure (CSLP, hPa), and 10 m maximum surface wind (10-m wind, m s−1), compared with the 700 sets of full combinations (i.e., 10 MP × 7 CU × 10 PBL). The decrease in the typhoon simulation error (i.e., root mean square error between simulation and observations) with this optimal scheme combination was 34%, 33.92%, and 25.67% for the track, CSLP, and 10-m wind, respectively. Overall, the results demonstrated that the optimal scheme combination yields reasonable results, and the Tukey-based optimization method is very effective and efficient in terms of computational resources. View Full-Text
Keywords: Tukey-based combinatorial optimization; WRF scheme selection; typhoon simulations Tukey-based combinatorial optimization; WRF scheme selection; typhoon simulations
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).

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Di, Z.; Gong, W.; Gan, Y.; Shen, C.; Duan, Q. Combinatorial Optimization for WRF Physical Parameterization Schemes: A Case Study of Three-Day Typhoon Simulations over the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 233.

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