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Prediction of Air Temperature in the Polish Western Carpathian Mountains with the ALADIN-HIRLAM Numerical Weather Prediction System

1
Faculty of Physics and Applied Computer Science, AGH-University of Science and Technology, 30-059 Krakow, Poland
2
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute, IMGW-PIB Branch of Krakow, 30-215 Krakow, Poland
3
Institute of Geography and Spatial Management, Jagiellonian University, 30-387 Krakow, Poland
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2019, 10(4), 186; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10040186
Received: 5 January 2019 / Revised: 25 March 2019 / Accepted: 2 April 2019 / Published: 5 April 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Climatology and Meteorology)
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Abstract

Prediction of spatial and temporal variability of air temperature in areas with complex topography is still a challenge for numerical weather prediction models. Simulation of atmosphere over complex terrain requires dense and accurate horizontal and vertical grids. In this study, verification results of three configurations of the Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement International High-Resolution Limited Area Model (ALADIN-HIRLAM) numerical weather prediction (NWP) system, using two different horizontal and vertical resolutions and applied to the Polish Western Carpathian Mountains, are presented. One model of the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP system is tested in two horizontal and vertical resolutions. Predicted air temperatures are compared with observations from stations located in different orographies. A comparison of model results with observations was conducted for three cold season intervals in 2017 and 2018. Statistical validation of model output demonstrates better model representativeness for stations located on hill and mountain tops compared to locations in valley bottoms. A comparison of results for two topography representations (2 × 2 km and 1 × 1 km) showed no statistically significant differences of root mean square error (RMSE) and bias between model results and observations. View Full-Text
Keywords: ALADIN-HIRLAM numerical weather prediction system; variability of air temperature; Polish Western Carpathian Mountains ALADIN-HIRLAM numerical weather prediction system; variability of air temperature; Polish Western Carpathian Mountains
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Sekula, P.; Bokwa, A.; Bochenek, B.; Zimnoch, M. Prediction of Air Temperature in the Polish Western Carpathian Mountains with the ALADIN-HIRLAM Numerical Weather Prediction System. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 186.

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