Effect of Human-Induced Land Disturbance on Subseasonal Predictability of Near-Surface Variables Using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model
by
Tomohito J. Yamada 1,* and Yadu Pokhrel 2
Tomohito J. Yamada 1,* and Yadu Pokhrel 2
1
Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University, N13 W8, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-8628, Japan
2
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2019, 10(11), 725; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110725
Received: 17 October 2019 / Revised: 11 November 2019 / Accepted: 13 November 2019 / Published: 19 November 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modeling and Monitoring Climate Extremes and Impacts on Natural-Human Systems)
Irrigation can affect climate and weather patterns from regional to global scales through the alteration of surface water and energy balances. Here, we couple a land-surface model (LSM) that includes various human land-water management activities including irrigation with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to examine the impacts of irrigation-induced land disturbance on the subseasonal predictability of near-surface variables. Results indicate that the simulated global irrigation and groundwater withdrawals (circa 2000) are ~3600 and ~370 km3/year, respectively, which are in good agreement with previous estimates from country statistics and offline–LSMs. Subseasonal predictions for boreal summers during the 1986–1995 period suggest that the spread among ensemble simulations of air temperature can be substantially reduced by using realistic land initializations considering irrigation-induced changes in soil moisture. Additionally, it is found that the subseasonal forecast skill for near-surface temperature and sea level pressure significantly improves when human-induced land disturbance is accounted for in the AGCM. These results underscore the need to incorporate irrigation into weather forecast models, such as the global forecast system.
View Full-Text
Keywords:
irrigation; subseasonal forecast; AGCM; land surface model
▼
Show Figures
Figure 1
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited
MDPI and ACS Style
Yamada, T.J.; Pokhrel, Y. Effect of Human-Induced Land Disturbance on Subseasonal Predictability of Near-Surface Variables Using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 725.
Show more citation formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.
