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Open AccessArticle

Effect of Human-Induced Land Disturbance on Subseasonal Predictability of Near-Surface Variables Using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model

1
Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University, N13 W8, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-8628, Japan
2
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2019, 10(11), 725; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110725
Received: 17 October 2019 / Revised: 11 November 2019 / Accepted: 13 November 2019 / Published: 19 November 2019
Irrigation can affect climate and weather patterns from regional to global scales through the alteration of surface water and energy balances. Here, we couple a land-surface model (LSM) that includes various human land-water management activities including irrigation with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to examine the impacts of irrigation-induced land disturbance on the subseasonal predictability of near-surface variables. Results indicate that the simulated global irrigation and groundwater withdrawals (circa 2000) are ~3600 and ~370 km3/year, respectively, which are in good agreement with previous estimates from country statistics and offline–LSMs. Subseasonal predictions for boreal summers during the 1986–1995 period suggest that the spread among ensemble simulations of air temperature can be substantially reduced by using realistic land initializations considering irrigation-induced changes in soil moisture. Additionally, it is found that the subseasonal forecast skill for near-surface temperature and sea level pressure significantly improves when human-induced land disturbance is accounted for in the AGCM. These results underscore the need to incorporate irrigation into weather forecast models, such as the global forecast system. View Full-Text
Keywords: irrigation; subseasonal forecast; AGCM; land surface model irrigation; subseasonal forecast; AGCM; land surface model
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Yamada, T.J.; Pokhrel, Y. Effect of Human-Induced Land Disturbance on Subseasonal Predictability of Near-Surface Variables Using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 725.

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