Assessment of Future Water Stress of Winter Wheat and Olive Trees in Greece Using High-Resolution Climate Model Projections

Elvanidi, Angeliki; Maletsika, Persefoni; Katsoulas, Nikolaos; Papadopoulos, Giorgos; Melas, Dimitrios; Douvis, Kostas; Faraslis, Ioannis; Keppas, Stavros; Stergiou, Ioannis; Poupkou, Anastasia; Voloudakis, Dimitrios; Kapsomenakis, John; Papanastasiou, Dimitris K.

doi:10.3390/agronomy16010035

This is an early access version, the complete PDF, HTML, and XML versions will be available soon.

Open AccessArticle

Assessment of Future Water Stress of Winter Wheat and Olive Trees in Greece Using High-Resolution Climate Model Projections

by

Angeliki Elvanidi

¹,

Persefoni Maletsika

¹

,

Nikolaos Katsoulas

^1,*

,

Giorgos Papadopoulos

^2,3

,

Dimitrios Melas

^2,3

,

Kostas Douvis

⁴

,

Ioannis Faraslis

⁵

,

Stavros Keppas

^2,3,

Ioannis Stergiou

^2,3

,

Anastasia Poupkou

⁴

,

Dimitrios Voloudakis

⁴,

John Kapsomenakis

⁴ and

Dimitris K. Papanastasiou

⁵

¹

Department of Agriculture Crop Production and Rural Environment, University of Thessaly, 38446 Volos, Greece

²

Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, School of Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece

³

Atmospheric Monitoring and Modeling Services, Center for Interdisciplinary Research and Innovation, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece

⁴

Research Centre for Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens, 11521 Athens, Greece

⁵

Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Thessaly, 41500 Larissa, Greece

^*

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Agronomy 2026, 16(1), 35; https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy16010035 (registering DOI)

Submission received: 2 November 2025 / Revised: 16 December 2025 / Accepted: 16 December 2025 / Published: 22 December 2025

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Variability on Horticultural Plant Growth and the Development of Agriculture)

Download Versions Notes

Abstract

Climate change is expected to increasingly intensify the water stress that directly impacts crop productivity in the near future. This study integrates the crop water stress index (CWSI) with high-resolution regional climate simulations produced by the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model to evaluate water stress that winter wheat and olive trees will potentially experience in Greece in the future. Decadal, high-resolution climate simulations were generated for both the present and near-future periods using the most recent shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) framework. A bias-corrected dataset based on 18 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 was used for boundary conditions to mitigate errors associated with individual global model biases. Projections indicated a mean air temperature increase of 1.1–1.7 °C and a relative humidity decrease of up to 3.5%. Mean CWSI increases of up to 6% and 4% were projected in most of the country for winter wheat and olive trees, respectively. The water stress of the winter wheat was also assessed over the three growing stages defined by the FAO. The analysis showed that water stress may occur during all growing stages, inducing potential impacts on tillering, photosynthetic efficiency, biomass accumulation, or yield. Additionally, a water stress threshold (i.e., CWSI > 0.5) was applied for both species in order to carry out a spatial assessment of the water stress that is projected to occur in the future in key winter wheat-, olive oil- and table olive-producing Greek regions. The findings of this study can support the irrigation scheduling and the development of climate-resilient agricultural practices in Greece. The modeling framework that was established in this study can also be applied to other crops and regions in the Mediterranean.

Keywords: climate change; agriculture; wheat; olive tree; CWSI; WRF model; water stress; Mediterranean

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Elvanidi, A.; Maletsika, P.; Katsoulas, N.; Papadopoulos, G.; Melas, D.; Douvis, K.; Faraslis, I.; Keppas, S.; Stergiou, I.; Poupkou, A.; et al. Assessment of Future Water Stress of Winter Wheat and Olive Trees in Greece Using High-Resolution Climate Model Projections. Agronomy 2026, 16, 35. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy16010035

AMA Style

Elvanidi A, Maletsika P, Katsoulas N, Papadopoulos G, Melas D, Douvis K, Faraslis I, Keppas S, Stergiou I, Poupkou A, et al. Assessment of Future Water Stress of Winter Wheat and Olive Trees in Greece Using High-Resolution Climate Model Projections. Agronomy. 2026; 16(1):35. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy16010035

Chicago/Turabian Style

Elvanidi, Angeliki, Persefoni Maletsika, Nikolaos Katsoulas, Giorgos Papadopoulos, Dimitrios Melas, Kostas Douvis, Ioannis Faraslis, Stavros Keppas, Ioannis Stergiou, Anastasia Poupkou, and et al. 2026. "Assessment of Future Water Stress of Winter Wheat and Olive Trees in Greece Using High-Resolution Climate Model Projections" Agronomy 16, no. 1: 35. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy16010035

APA Style

Elvanidi, A., Maletsika, P., Katsoulas, N., Papadopoulos, G., Melas, D., Douvis, K., Faraslis, I., Keppas, S., Stergiou, I., Poupkou, A., Voloudakis, D., Kapsomenakis, J., & Papanastasiou, D. K. (2026). Assessment of Future Water Stress of Winter Wheat and Olive Trees in Greece Using High-Resolution Climate Model Projections. Agronomy, 16(1), 35. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy16010035

Note that from the first issue of 2016, this journal uses article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Metrics

Article metric data becomes available approximately 24 hours after publication online.

Article Menu

Assessment of Future Water Stress of Winter Wheat and Olive Trees in Greece Using High-Resolution Climate Model Projections

Abstract

Share and Cite

Article Metrics

Further Information

Guidelines

MDPI Initiatives

Follow MDPI