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Remote Sens. 2018, 10(11), 1701; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10111701

On the Use of Dual-Doppler Radar Measurements for Very Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts

1
Institute of Physics, ForWind—University of Oldenburg, Küpkersweg 70, 26129 Oldenburg, Germany
2
Ørsted Wind Power, Kraftværksvej 53, 7000 Fredericia, Denmark
3
DLR Institute of Networked Energy Systems, Carl von Ossietzky Straße 15, 26129 Oldenburg, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 30 August 2018 / Revised: 22 October 2018 / Accepted: 24 October 2018 / Published: 29 October 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Remote Sensing of Atmospheric Conditions for Wind Energy Applications)
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Abstract

Very short-term forecasts of wind power provide electricity market participants with extremely valuable information, especially in power systems with high penetration of wind energy. In very short-term horizons, statistical methods based on historical data are frequently used. This paper explores the use of dual-Doppler radar observations of wind speed and direction to derive five-minute ahead deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of wind power. An advection-based technique is introduced, which estimates the predictive densities of wind speed at the target wind turbine. In a case study, the proposed methodology is used to forecast the power generated by seven turbines in the North Sea with a temporal resolution of one minute. The radar-based forecast outperforms the persistence and climatology benchmarks in terms of overall forecasting skill. Results indicate that when a large spatial coverage of the inflow of the wind turbine is available, the proposed methodology is also able to generate reliable density forecasts. Future perspectives on the application of Doppler radar observations for very short-term wind power forecasting are discussed in this paper. View Full-Text
Keywords: Doppler radar; five-minute ahead wind power forecasting; probabilistic forecasting; remote sensing forecasting; offshore wind speed forecasting Doppler radar; five-minute ahead wind power forecasting; probabilistic forecasting; remote sensing forecasting; offshore wind speed forecasting
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Valldecabres, L.; Nygaard, N.G.; Vera-Tudela, L.; Von Bremen, L.; Kühn, M. On the Use of Dual-Doppler Radar Measurements for Very Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts. Remote Sens. 2018, 10, 1701.

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