Determinants of Immigration in Europe. The Relevance of Life Expectancy and Environmental Sustainability
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Immigration in Europe
2.1. European Migration Flows
2.2. Variables
2.2.1. Immigration, Economy, and Finance
2.2.2. Immigration and Population
2.2.3. Immigration and Public Health
2.2.4. Immigration and Sustainability
3. Empirical Analysis
3.1. Sample
3.2. Empirical Model
4. Results
5. Conclusions
- The economic variables examined here have an enormous explanatory capacity for migration flow (GDP per capita, GDP growth, and unemployment rate), fundamentally in the periods of economic crisis and recovery. According to the regression coefficients, the variables related to GDP attract immigration to a high degree; however, the rate of unemployment is a decreasing factor for immigration, but has a much smaller impact. We can observe that, only in the case of the economic variables is the effect greater for the group of EU-28 countries and, therefore, the EU-19 countries are less sensitive to variations in these variables.
- From among the financial variables, only the level of public debt influences the influx of new immigrants, though this variable has significantly high values. Indeed, the debt incurred by Europe’s nations is a demotivation factor for the arrival of new immigrants. Moreover, debt among countries that have adopted the single currency doubled the demotivating effect compared to the EU-28 countries. As with the economic variables, this effect becomes extremely notable in times of economic crisis and recovery.
- Immigration during the economic boom indicates that the variables directly related to Europe’s economic and financial evolution are not determining factors when making the decision to emigrate.
- With regard to the population-related variables, only population growth affects immigration and, in this case, only marginally.
- According to the regression coefficients, immigration established itself naturally in European countries where population numbers are in decline. This inverse effect only comes about during a period of economic crisis, but loses its explanatory capacity during the other periods. Population growth is much more sensitive in the EU-19 countries compared to all the EU-28 member states.
- The variables related to healthcare (fertility rate and life expectancy of the host country) are vitally relevant in the justification of the decision to emigrate to Europe. Life expectancy is much more of a determining factor, as it is significant for all the periods in this study, while the fertility rate only has an impact during the period economic prosperity. Good management of the European health services has meant that life expectancy is increasing all the time and thus has a greater positive influence on migration flow. This effect is much more notable in countries in the EU-19 group.
- With regard to the measures put in place to protect the environment (level of pollution emissions and costs allocated to protecting the environment), only the level of pollution serves to explain levels of immigration. In accordance with these results, it can be deduced that immigration is less likely to occur in countries with high levels of pollution and consequently low levels of sustainability. This effect is present in all the periods analyzed here and is more relevant for the EU-19 countries.
- Generally speaking, the influence of the proposed variables is higher in the group of countries that adopted the single currency. Thus, variation is less notable for EU member states as a whole.
- Prevention of the entry of false tourists, by ensuring that they are required to obtain a visa.
- Signing readmission agreements with the countries concerned to control immigration.
- Foster and regulate recruitment in the countries of origin through bilateral migration agreements.
- Strengthen border surveillance.
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variables | Description | ||
---|---|---|---|
Independent Variable | |||
Immigration (number of individuals) | LIMMIG | Logarithm (Person establishes his or her usual residence in the territory of a Member State for a period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months, having previously been usually resident in another Member State or a third country). | |
Explanatory Variables | |||
Economy Variables | GDP per capita (millions) | LGDPERCAP | Logarithm (GDP at market prices (final result of the production activity of resident producer units)/numbers of citizens). |
GDP growth (%) | GDPGROW | (GDPj – GDPj−1)/GDPj, ∀ j = country 1, …, country J. | |
Unemployment (%) | UNEMP | Percentage of the unemployed over the active population. | |
Finance Variables | Government Gross Debt (millions) | LGOVDEBT | Logarithm (The indicator is defined (in the Maastricht Treaty) as consolidated general government gross debt at nominal (face) value, outstanding at the end of the year in the following categories of government liabilities: currency and deposits, debt securities and loans. The general government sector comprises the subsectors: central government, state government, local government and social security funds). |
Government déficit-surplus (%) | GOVDEF | Percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). Net lending (+) or net borrowing (−). | |
Population Variables | Population Growth (%) | POPGRO | Eurostat aims at collecting from the Member States data on population on 31 December, which is further published as 1 January of the following year. The recommended definition is the ‘usual resident population’ and represents the number of inhabitants of a given area on 31 December. However, the population transmitted by the countries can also be either based on data from the most recent census adjusted by the components of population change produced since the last census, either based on population registers. |
Natural Change Population (number of individuals) | LNATPOP | Logarithm (The difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths during the year. A positive natural change, also known as natural increase, occurs when live births outnumber deaths. A negative natural change, also named as natural decrease, occurs when live births are less numerous than deaths). | |
Health Variables | Fertility Indicator (number of individuals) | LFERTIL | Logarithm (The different breakdowns of data on live births and on legally induced abortions received). |
Life Expectancy Absolute Value Birth (years) | LLIFEXP | Logarithm (The number of years that a person is expected to continue to live in a healthy condition. It is compiled separately for males and females, at birth and at age 65. It is based on age-specific prevalence (proportions) of the population in healthy and unhealthy conditions and age-specific mortality information. A healthy condition is defined by the absence of limitations in functioning/disability. The indicator is also called disability-free life expectancy). | |
Environment Variables | Environmental protection expenditures (millions) | LPROTE | Logarithm (All activities directly aimed at the prevention, reduction and elimination of pollution or any other degradation of the environment). |
Pollution Emissions (tonnes) | LPOLLEM | Logarithm (Includes data on 6 air pollutants: sulphur oxides (SOx), ammonia (NH3), nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), particulate matters (PM10, PM2.5), as reported to the European Environment Agency (EEA)). |
Panel A. Overall (2000–2014) | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economy Variables | Finance Variables | Population Variables | Health Variables | Environment Variables | ||||||||
N = 420 | INMIG | GDPERCAP | GDPGROW | UNEMP | GOVDEBT | GOVDEF | POPGRO | NATPROP | FERTIL | LIFEXP | PROTE | POLLEM |
Mean | 126,680.8 | 23,110.95 | 0.051634 | 0.090036 | 54.49665 | −2.884928 | 0.002265 | 11,605.63 | 1.525442 | 77.90036 | 38.99665 | 380,870.4 |
Maximum | 958,266 | 73,000 | 0.313668 | 0.275 | 179.7 | 6.9 | 0.031359 | 303,252 | 2.06 | 83.3 | 83.73 | 1,923,700 |
Minimum | 35 | 5000 | −0.23016 | 0.019 | 3.7 | −32.1 | −0.044985 | −211,756 | 1.15 | 70.35 | 0 | 3834 |
SD | 191,661.3 | 10,568.78 | 0.067373 | 0.043250 | 31.4882 | 3.757779 | 0.008799 | 72,254.98 | 0.225557 | 3.196445 | 18.41291 | 473,145.6 |
J-B | 578.7952 ** | 627.8792 ** | 98.33769 ** | 234.7727 ** | 67.28021 ** | 1406.296 ** | 236.9374 ** | 819.4219 ** | 32.87014 ** | ** 34.94481 | 4.500946 | 199.7107 ** |
Panel B. Sub-Period 2000–2007 | ||||||||||||
N = 224 | INMIG | GDPERCAP | GDPGROW | UNEMP | GOVDEBT | GOVDEF | POPGRO | NATPROP | FERTIL | LIFEXP | PROTE | POLLEM |
Mean | 126,124.6 | 21,098.21 | 0.081491 | 0.083799 | 46.91757 | −1.685586 | 0.002257 | 10,680.08 | 1.484664 | 76.95826 | 38.22657 | 433,928.7 |
Maximum | 958,266 | 67,100 | 0.313668 | 0.2 | 108.8 | 6.9 | 0.031359 | 303,252 | 2.01 | 81.5 | 78.72 | 1,923,700 |
Minimum | 35 | 5000 | −0.085044 | 0.019 | 3.7 | −12 | −0.044985 | −148,903 | 1.15 | 70.35 | 0 | 8653 |
SD | 208,232.9 | 10,066.04 | 0.058325 | 0.03948 | 26.33434 | 3.142206 | 0.008704 | 65,113.04 | 0.225492 | 3.100535 | 16.20561 | 533,052.3 |
J-B | 322.8031 ** | 173.1928 ** | 93.87142 ** | 56.89913 ** | 11.71886 ** | 0.967747 | 291.4717 ** | 751.1093 ** | 21.16173 ** | 24.43949 ** | 1.843809 | 82.93403 ** |
Panel C. Sub-Period 2008–2012 | ||||||||||||
N = 140 | INMIG | GDPERCAP | GDPGROW | UNEMP | GOVDEBT | GOVDEF | POPGRO | NATPROP | FERTIL | LIFEXP | PROTE | POLLEM |
Mean | 126,872.2 | 24,988.57 | 0.016521 | 0.092779 | 59.145 | −4.648571 | 0.002668 | 15,780.33 | 1.584929 | 78.68152 | 39.57344 | 333,836 |
Maximum | 682,146 | 68,600 | 0.191805 | 0.248000 | 172.1 | 4.2 | 0.027869 | 286,577 | 2.06 | 82.7 | 81.74 | 1,411,614 |
Minimum | 2639 | 11,200 | −0.23016 | 0.034000 | 4.5 | −32.1 | −0.02845 | −196,038 | 1.23 | 71.75 | 1.7 | 3834 |
SD | 168,636.3 | 10,485.17 | 0.069051 | 0.042238 | 32.57194 | 4.181003 | 0.009491 | 81,197.11 | 0.219975 | 2.961807 | 21.08225 | 400,051.9 |
J-B | 76.09539 ** | 290.0315 ** | 16.20044 ** | 59.01844 ** | 15.69381 ** | 946.3818 ** | 17.18962 ** | 156.25 ** | 13.93443 ** | 16.64977 ** | 3.877545 | 45.74231 ** |
Panel D. Sub-Period 2013–2014 | ||||||||||||
N = 56 | INMIG | GDPERCAP | GDPGROW | UNEMP | GOVDEBT | GOVDEF | POPGRO | NATPROP | FERTIL | LIFEXP | PROTE | POLLEM |
Mean | 128,169.8 | 26,467.86 | 0.019985 | 0.108125 | 72.92143 | −3.230357 | 0.001291 | 4871.054 | 1.539107 | 79.67455 | 44.82333 | 286,223.6 |
Maximum | 884,893 | 73,000 | 0.103732 | 0.275000 | 179.7 | 1.5 | 0.023538 | 259,893 | 2.01 | 83.3 | 83.73 | 1,272,410 |
Minimum | 3904 | 12,200 | −0.069286 | 0.050000 | 10.2 | −15 | −0.011047 | −211756 | 1.21 | 74.05 | 11.74 | 4872 |
SD | 185,202.7 | 11,194.85 | 0.030788 | 0.053956 | 37.64382 | 3.060239 | 0.007319 | 76,331.57 | 0.207822 | 2.887904 | 21.14199 | 350,276.4 |
J-B | 116.7506 ** | 172.2435 ** | 2.753423 | 36.82398 ** | 4.96164 ^ | 59.39364 ** | 11.7564 ** | 60.79337 ** | 3.915637 | 6.575868 * | 0.166918 | 21.42939 ** |
VIF | −−− | 4.568741 | 2.690145 | 3.603471 | 6.976412 | 6.126804 | 1.069745 | 2.057487 | 3.666875 | 1.556824 | 4.906042 | 4.763254 |
Panel A. Overall (2000–2014) | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economy Variables | Finance Variables | Population Variables | Health Variables | Environment Variables | ||||||||
N = 285 | INMIG | GDPERCAP | GDPGROW | UNEMP | GOVDEBT | GOVDEF | POPGRO | NATPROP | FERTIL | LIFEXP | PROTE | POLLEM |
Mean | 128,569.8 | 25,123.51 | 0.047749 | 0.090849 | 59.47614 | −2.938947 | 0.003702 | 13,738.63 | 1.526 | 78.57847 | 40.28925 | 375,580 |
Maximum | 958,266 | 73,000 | 0.313668 | 0.275000 | 179.7 | 6.9 | 0.031359 | 303,252 | 2.06 | 83.3 | 83.73 | 1,923,700 |
Minimum | 35 | 7100 | −0.23016 | 0.019000 | 3.7 | −32.1 | −0.02845 | −211,756 | 1.19 | 70.35 | 0 | 3834 |
SD | 202,087.6 | 10,910.95 | 0.060917 | 0.045352 | 35.00633 | 4.012295 | 0.00903 | 75,154.83 | 0.225877 | 3.077082 | 18.86578 | 492,495.8 |
J-B | 418.522 ** | 516.0964 ** | 169.0808 ** | 171.0457 ** | 16.32584 ** | 1196.209 ** | 19.25343 ** | 527.263 ** | 26.13884 ** | 57.65717 ** | 2.874345 | 113.0777 ** |
Panel B. Sub-Period 2000–2007 | ||||||||||||
N = 152 | INMIG | GDPERCAP | GDPGROW | UNEMP | GOVDEBT | GOVDEF | POPGRO | NATPROP | FERTIL | LIFEXP | PROTE | POLLEM |
Mean | 136,091.1 | 23,067.76 | 0.075993 | 0.080625 | 50.35855 | −1.553289 | 0.004195 | 16,155.31 | 1.494671 | 77.59533 | 39.544 | 429,894.7 |
Maximum | 958,266 | 67,100 | 0.313668 | 0.195000 | 108.8 | 6.9 | 0.031359 | 303,252 | 2.01 | 81.5 | 78.72 | 1,923,700 |
Minimum | 35 | 7100 | 0.004884 | 0.019000 | 3.7 | −12 | −0.019488 | −148,903 | 1.19 | 70.35 | 0 | 8653 |
SD | 225,555.6 | 10,193.8 | 0.052476 | 0.035655 | 29.88539 | 3.103703 | 0.00821 | 70,933.1 | 0.228003 | 2.963901 | 15.84822 | 555,392.2 |
J-B | 191.7067 ** | 169.0151 ** | 145.2355 ** | 37.14768 ** | 5.538987 ^ | 2.943811 | 6.571765 * | 415.1537 ** | 15.19215 ** | 38.76155 ** | 0.582827 | 46.32409 ** |
Panel C. Sub-Period 2008–2012 | ||||||||||||
N = 95 | INMIG | GDPERCAP | GDPGROW | UNEMP | GOVDEBT | GOVDEF | POPGRO | NATPROP | FERTIL | LIFEXP | PROTE | POLLEM |
Mean | 119,206.8 | 27,053.68 | 0.013698 | 0.097326 | 65.23474 | −4.941053 | 0.003709 | 14,122.05 | 1.574211 | 79.42234 | 40.74525 | 326,955.6 |
Maximum | 682,146 | 68,600 | 0.173558 | 0.248000 | 172.1 | 4.2 | 0.027869 | 286,577 | 2.06 | 82.7 | 81.74 | 1,411,614 |
Minimum | 2639 | 12,800 | −0.23016 | 0.037000 | 4.5 | −32.1 | −0.02845 | −196,038 | 1.28 | 71.75 | 1.7 | 3834 |
SD | 166,920.1 | 10,996.78 | 0.060444 | 0.047955 | 35.43065 | 4.617047 | 0.010451 | 81,039.98 | 0.219494 | 2.811436 | 22.48947 | 416,611.6 |
J-B | 49.73584 ** | 204.0887 ** | 47.45518 ** | 20.31349 ** | 4.301137 | 567.7781 ** | 5.98054 * | 114.8771 ** | 12.90376 ** | 30.58608 ** | 3.181964 | 29.9789 ** |
Panel D. Sub-Period 2013–2014 | ||||||||||||
N = 38 | INMIG | GDPERCAP | GDPGROW | UNEMP | GOVDEBT | GOVDEF | POPGRO | NATPROP | FERTIL | LIFEXP | PROTE | POLLEM |
Mean | 123,576.9 | 28,521.05 | 0.0199 | 0.116079 | 81.55 | −3.476316 | 0.001709 | 3113.368 | 1.530789 | 80.42027 | 54.61667 | 279,882 |
Maximum | 884,893 | 73,000 | 0.071863 | 0.275000 | 179.7 | 1.5 | 0.023538 | 259,893 | 2.01 | 83.3 | 83.73 | 1,272,410 |
Minimum | 3904 | 16,600 | −0.069286 | 0.049000 | 10.2 | −15 | −0.011047 | −211,756 | 1.21 | 74.05 | 27.29 | 4872 |
SD | 192,038.4 | 11,987.2 | 0.030215 | 0.05989 | 40.55673 | 3.408926 | 0.008262 | 77,426.65 | 0.216887 | 2.737179 | 28.26239 | 366,543.7 |
J-B | 99.57739 ** | 106.8624 ** | 6.868972 * | 10.64451 ** | 0.925469 | 30.70216 ** | 4.611322 ^ | 47.32679 ** | 2.861169 | 11.04541 ** | 0.28794 | 15.23838 ** |
VIF | −−− | 4.179687 | 3.168742 | 3.636977 | 5.896357 | 6.334921 | 1.150793 | 1.646874 | 4.367955 | 1.463571 | 5.756966 | 4.843298 |
Panel A. Overall (2000–2014) (N = 420) | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economy Variables | Finance Variables | Population Variables | Health Variables | Environment Variables | ||||||||
C | LGDPERCAP | GDPGROW | UNEM | LGOVDEBT | GOVDEF | POPGRO | LNATPOP | FERTIL | LLIFEXP | LPROTE | LPOLLEM | |
Coefficient | 7.16116 ** | 2.34279 * | 1.23146 * | −0.95529 ** | −0.0202 * | −3.01740 | −0.06675 * | 0.03719 | 1.85899 * | 4.9237 ** | 3.02045 | −0.05585 ^ |
t-Statistic | (6.15767) | (7.60583) | (12.843) | (−4.4001) | (−3.77546) | (−0.54375) | (−2.9655) | (1.33836) | (3.2774) | (20.726) | (0.4403) | (−2.78413) |
Sargan Test | 63.28(59) | |||||||||||
m2 Test | 0.95 | |||||||||||
R2 adjusted | 0.41366 | |||||||||||
Panel B. Sub-Period 2000–2007 (N = 224) | ||||||||||||
Coefficient | 9.55621 * | 1.93061 * | 2.15831 | −0.44358 | −1.35479 | −6.47185 | −0.03497 * | 3.66667 | 3.36925 * | 5.79360 ** | 4.66314 | −0.09964 ^ |
t−Statistic | (4.00397) | (8.14268) | (1.4576) | (−0.39741) | (−0.55541) | (−0.66631) | (−2.86751) | (1.49317) | (3.6293) | (22.015) | (0.7756) | (−3.00643) |
Sargan Test | 61.43(50) | |||||||||||
m2 Test | 0.97 | |||||||||||
R2 adjusted | 0.39002 | |||||||||||
Panel C. Sub-Period 2008–2012 (N = 140) | ||||||||||||
Coefficient | 3.06744 * | 5.06784 ** | 2.63597 | −1.39764 ** | −3.00667 * | 6.11134 | −0.66502 ^ | −1.68714 | 4.12075 | 4.9234 ** | 3.47574 | −0.00974 ^ |
t-Statistic | (4.37106) | (15.6674) | (1.6482) | (−6.43674) | (−4.16354) | (0.33474) | (−1.84047) | (−0.88764) | (0.2786) | (20.756) | (0.3679) | (−1.78132) |
Sargan Test | 68.89(58) | |||||||||||
m2 Test | 0.92 | |||||||||||
R2 adjusted | 0.41267 | |||||||||||
Panel D. Sub-period 2013−2014 (N = 56) | ||||||||||||
Coefficient | 4.97574 ** | 2.36547 ** | 2.67166 * | −1.67418 ** | −2.14204 * | −5.36877 | −0.08741 | 0.79657 | 1.63574 | 3.97341 ** | 2.49347 | −0.08964 * |
t-Statistic | (4.97848) | (10.9741) | (11.637) | (−7.69746) | (−3.06324) | (−0.33674) | (−0.69341) | (1.64744) | (1.0143) | (17.605) | (0.5681) | (−2.95254) |
Sargan Test | 68.56(58) | |||||||||||
m2 Test | 0.92 | |||||||||||
R2 adjusted | 0.31029 |
Panel A. Overall (2000–2014) (N = 420) | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economy Variables | Finance Variables | Population Variables | Health Variables | Environment Variables | ||||||||
C | LGDPERCAP | GDPGROW | UNEM | LGOVDEBT | GOVDEF | POPGRO | LNATPOP | FERTIL | LLIFEXP | LPROTE | LPOLLEM | |
Coefficient | 4.17029 ** | 5.36617 * | 4.23166 ** | −0.73145 * | −4.07874 * | −6.12475 | 1.05714 | 0.05571 | 2.45841 * | 6.9741 ** | −8.05874 | −0.36741 * |
t-Statistic | (4.22947) | (10.3157) | (6.8573) | (−6.11278) | (−8.90031) | (−0.63744) | (1.05744) | (0.58764) | (3.86741) | (23.974) | (−0.3741) | (−5.66412) |
Sargan Test | 79.61(72) | |||||||||||
m2 Test | 0.79 | |||||||||||
R2 adjusted | 0.39605 | |||||||||||
Panel B. Sub-Period 2000–2007 (N = 224) | ||||||||||||
Coefficient | 3.00841 ^ | 1.95714 ** | 4.65471 ** | −0.72974 ** | −1.67547 * | −7.63644 | 5.66348 | 0.44621 | 4.00677 * | 7.6544 ** | 2.00647 ^ | −0.45874 * |
t-Statistic | (6.66641) | (8.79541) | (9.4374) | (−5.96478) | (−6.54231) | (−0.36874) | (0.83336) | (0.40641) | (3.9654) | (22.648) | (1.3208) | (−4.11647) |
Sargan Test | 77.11(71) | |||||||||||
m2 Test | 0.86 | |||||||||||
R2 adjusted | 0.41394 | |||||||||||
Panel C. Sub-Period 2008–2012 (N = 140) | ||||||||||||
Coefficient | 2.11411 ^ | 9.66774 ** | 4.1185 ** | −1.49647 ** | −8.3338 ** | −14.5414 | −0.57521 ^ | 4.36741 | 6.66254 | 4.9636 ** | 3.30541 | −0.06874 * |
t-Statistic | (5.49355) | (19.6552) | (6.5424) | (−7.14621) | (−12.5641) | (−0.8747) | (−1.63542) | (0.06847) | (0.3065) | (21.494) | (0.3546) | (−3.63674) |
Sargan Test | 83.25(79) | |||||||||||
m2 Test | 0.75 | |||||||||||
R2 adjusted | 0.42694 | |||||||||||
Panel D. Sub-Period 2013–2014 (N = 56) | ||||||||||||
Coefficient | 1.69751 * | 4.66665 ** | 4.7414 ** | −1.9674 ** | −5.71852 * | −9.46001 | −0.46754 | −0.00687 | 1.03974 | 4.3128 ** | 3.69751 | −0.02674 * |
t-Statistic | (3.14058) | (12.6878) | (12.452) | (−9.32165) | (−7.10235) | (−0.26741) | (−0.66666) | (−0.36714) | (1.1851) | (19.066) | (0.3365) | (−2.96654) |
Sargan Test | 84.53(79) | |||||||||||
m2 Test | 0.75 | |||||||||||
R2 adjusted | 0.32374 |
© 2017 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Grau Grau, A.J.; Ramírez López, F. Determinants of Immigration in Europe. The Relevance of Life Expectancy and Environmental Sustainability. Sustainability 2017, 9, 1093. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9071093
Grau Grau AJ, Ramírez López F. Determinants of Immigration in Europe. The Relevance of Life Expectancy and Environmental Sustainability. Sustainability. 2017; 9(7):1093. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9071093
Chicago/Turabian StyleGrau Grau, Alfredo Juan, and Federico Ramírez López. 2017. "Determinants of Immigration in Europe. The Relevance of Life Expectancy and Environmental Sustainability" Sustainability 9, no. 7: 1093. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9071093