Environmental Sustainability of Agriculture Stressed by Changing Extremes of Drought and Excess Moisture: A Conceptual Review
2. Data and Methods
3.1. Possible Future Trends in AEIs for Soil Quality
3.1.1. Soil Erosion by Wind and Water
3.1.2. Soil Organic Carbon
3.1.3. Soil Salinization
3.2. Possible Future Trends for Water Quality
3.3. Possible Future Trends in Water Supply and Demand
3.4. Farmland Management
4. Discussion and Conclusions
Conflicts of Interest
- Kulshreshtha, S.; Wheaton, E. Climate change and Canadian agriculture: Some knowledge gaps. Int. J. Clim. Chang. Impacts Responses 2013, 4, 127–148. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Qian, B.; Gameda, S.; Zhang, X.; De Jong, R. Changing growing season observed in Canada. Clim. Chang. 2012, 112, 339–353. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Nyirfa, W.; Harron, B. Assessment of Climate Change on the Agricultural Resources of the Canadian Prairies; The Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina: Regina, SK, Canada, 2004; 27p. [Google Scholar]
- Qian, B.; De Jong, R.; Gameda, S.; Huffman, T.; Neilsen, D.; Desjardins, R.; Whang, H.; McConkey, B. Impacts of climate change scenarios on Canadian agroclimatic indices. Can. J. Soil Sci. 2013, 93, 243–259. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wheaton, E.; Bonsal, B.; Wittrock, V. Possible Future Dry and Wet Extremes in Saskatchewan, Canada; The Water Security Agency, Saskatchewan Research Council: Saskatoon, SK, Canada, 2013. [Google Scholar]
- Wheaton, E.; Sauchyn, D.; Bonsal, B. Future Possible Droughts. In Vulnerability and Adaptation to Drought: The Canadian Prairies and South America; Diaz, H., Hurlbert, M., Warren, J., Eds.; University of Calgary Press: Calgary, AB, Canada, 2016. [Google Scholar]
- Masud, M.; Khaliq, M.; Wheater, H. Future changes to drought characteristics over the Canadian Prairie Provinces based on NARCCAP multi-RCM ensemble. Clim. Dyn. 2016, 48, 2685–2705. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. An Overview of the Canadian Agriculture and Agri-Food System 2016; Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: Ottawa, ON, Canada, 2017.
- Eilers, W.; MacKay, R.; Graham, L.; Lefebvre, A. Environmental Sustainability of Canadian Agriculture: Agri-Environmental Indicator Report Series; Report #3; Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: Ottawa, ON, Canada, 2010; 235p.
- Markandya, A.; Perelet, R.; Mason, P.; Taylor, T. Dictionary of Environmental Economics; Earthscan: London, UK, 2002. [Google Scholar]
- Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Environmental Indicators for Agriculture: Concepts and Framework; OECD: Paris, France, 1999; Volume 1. [Google Scholar]
- Clearwater, R.; Martin, T.; Hoppe, T. (Eds.) Environmental Sustainability of Canadian Agriculture: Agri-Environmental Indicators Report Series—Report #4; Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: Ottawa, ON, Canada, 2016; 239p.
- Wall, E.; Smit, B. Climate change adaptation in light of sustainable agriculture. J. Sustain. Agric. 2005, 27, 113–123. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wheaton, E.; Kulshreshtha, S.; Eilers, W.; Wittrock, V. Trends in the Environmental Performance of Agriculture in Canada under Climate Change; The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Saskatchewan Research Council: Saskatoon, SK, Canada, 2010; 10p. [Google Scholar]
- Wheaton, E.; Eilers, W.; Kulshreshtha, S.; MacGregor, R.; Wittrock, V. Assessing Agri-environmental Implications of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change; SRC Publication No. 10432-1E11; The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Saskatchewan Research Council: Saskatoon, SK, Canada, 2011; 31p. [Google Scholar]
- Wheaton, E.; Kulshreshtha, S. Agriculture and climate change: Implications for environmental sustainability indicators. In Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Ecosystems and Sustainable Development, Bucharest, Romania, 18–20 June 2013; Marinov, A.M., Bebbia, C.A.B., Eds.; Wessex Institute of Technology, WIT Press: Southampton, UK, 2013; pp. 99–110. [Google Scholar]
- Bonsal, B.; Aider, R.; Gachon, P.; Lapp, S. An assessment of Canadian prairie drought: Past, present, and future. Clim. Dyn. 2013, 41, 501–516. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Summary for Policymakers. In Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation; A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the IPCC; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2012. [Google Scholar]
- Phillips, D. The Day Niagara Falls Ran Dry! Canadian Geographic; Key Porter Books: Toronto, ON, Canada, 1993; 226p. [Google Scholar]
- Hunter, F.; Donald, D.; Johnson, B.; Hyde, W.; Hanesiak, J.; Kellerhals, M.; Hopkinson, R.; Oegema, B. The vanguard torrential storm. Can. Water Res. J. 2002, 27, 213–227. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Mladjic, B.; Sushama, L.; Khaliq, M.; Laprise, R.; Caya, D.; Roy, R. Canadian RCM projected changes to extreme precipitation characteristics over Canada. J. Clim. 2011, 24, 2566–2584. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wheaton, E.; Kulshreshtha, S.; Wittrock, V.; Koshida, G. Dry times: Lessons from the Canadian drought of 2001 and 2002. Can. Geogr. 2008, 52, 241–262. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wittrock, V.; Wheaton, E.; Siemens, E. More than a Close Call: A Preliminary Assessment of the Characteristics, Impacts of and Adaptations to the Drought of 2008–2010 in the Canadian Prairies; Saskatchewan Research Council: Saskatoon, SK, Canada, 2010; 124p. [Google Scholar]
- Szeto, K.; Zhang, X.; White, R.; Brimelow, J. The 2015 Extreme Drought in Western Canada. In Explaining Extreme Events of 2015 from a Climate Perspective; Herring, S., Hoell, A., Hoerling, M., Kossing, J., Schreck, C., III, Stott, P., Eds.; Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; American Meteorological Society: Boston, MA, USA, 2016; Volume 97, pp. S42–S45. [Google Scholar]
- Price, D.; McKenney, D.; Joyce, L.; Siltanen, R.; Papadopol, P.; Lawrence, K. High-Resolution Interpolation of Climate Scenarios for Canada Derived from General Circulation Model Simulations; Information Report NOR-X-421; Northern Forestry Center, Canadian Forest Service: Edmonton, AB, Canada, 2011.
- Williams, G.; Wheaton, E. Estimating biomass and wind erosion impacts for several climatic scenarios: A Saskatchewan case study. Prairie Forum 1998, 23, 49–66. [Google Scholar]
- Phillips, D. Canada’s Top Ten Weather Stories for 2011. Available online: http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?lang=En&n=0397DE72-1 (accessed on 5 March 2013).
- Environment Canada. Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin, Summer 2012, Spring 2012. Available online: http://www.ec.gc.ca/adsc-cmda/default.asp?lang=En&n=30EDCA67-1 (accessed on 5 March 2013).
- Hopkinson, R. Anomalously High Rainfall over Southeast Saskatchewan—2011; Custom Climate Services; The Saskatchewan Watershed Authority: Regina, SK, Canada, 2011. [Google Scholar]
- United States Army Corps of Engineers. 2011 Post-Flood Report for the Souris River Basin. Submitted to The International Souris River Board and The United States Department of the Interior. Available online: http://swc.nd.gov/4dlink9/4dcgi/GetSubContentPDF/PB-2794/Souris%202011%20Post%20Flood%20Report.pdf (accessed on 5 March 2013).
- Brown, R.D.; Robinson, D.A. Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover variability and change over 1922–2010 including an assessment of uncertainty. Cryosphere 2011, 5, 219–229. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Gan, T.; Barry, R.; Gizaw, M.; Gobena, A.; Balaji, R. Changes in North American Snowpacks for 1979–2007 detected from the Snow Water Equivalent Data of SMMR and SSM/I Passive Microwave and Related Climatic Factors. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2013, 118, 7682–7697. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Brown, R.; Mote, P. The response of Northern Hemisphere snow cover to a changing climate. J. Clim. 2009, 22, 2124–2145. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Davidson, E.; Janssens, I. Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition and feedbacks to climate change. Nature 2006, 440, 165–173. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Wiebe, B.; Eilers, W.; Brierley, J. Soil Salinity. In Environmental Sustainability of Canadian Agriculture: Agri-Environmental Indicator Report Series; Report #3; Eilers, W., MacKay, R., Graham, L., Lefebvre, A., Eds.; Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, 2010; p. 66. [Google Scholar]
- Townley Smith, L.; Black, M. Desertification. Sidebar. In Environmental Sustainability of Canadian Agriculture: Agri-Environmental Indicator Report Series; Report #3; Eilers, W., MacKay, R., Graham, L., Lefebvre, A., Eds.; Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: Ottawa, ON, Canada, 2010; p. 235. [Google Scholar]
- Sauchyn, D.; Wuschke, B.; Kennedy, S.; Nykolyak, M. A Scoping Study to Evaluate Approaches to Developing Desertification Indicators; Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative: Regina, SK, Canada, 2003; p. 109.
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Climate Change and Desertification. Available online: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/agm/publications/documents/wmo_cc_desertif_foldout_en.pdf (accessed on 11 April 2016).
- Fung, K.; Barry, B.; Wilson, M.; Martz, L. Atlas of Saskatchewan; University of Saskatchewan: Saskatoon, SK, Canada, 1999. [Google Scholar]
- Waggoner, P.; Revelle, R. Summary. In Climate Change and U.S. Water Resources; Waggoner, P.E., Ed.; John Wiley and Sons: Toronto, ON, Canada, 1990. [Google Scholar]
- Whitehead, P.G.; Wilby, R.L.; Battarbee, R.W.; Kernan, M.; Wade, A.J. A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality. Hydrol. Sci. J. 2009, 54, 101–123. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Moss, B.; Stephen, D.; Balayla, D.; Bẻcares, E.; Collings, S.; Fernandez-Alaez, C.; Fernandez-Alaez, C.; Ferriol, C.; Garcia, P.; Goma, J.; et al. Continental-scale patterns of nutrient and fish effects on shallow lakes: Synthesis of a pan-European mesocosm experiment. Freshw. Biol. 2004, 49, 1633–1649. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Anteau, M.; Wiltermuth, M.; van der Burg, M.P.; Pearse, A. Prerequisites for understanding climate-change impacts on northern prairie wetlands. Wetlands 2016, 36, 299–307. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Murdoch, P.S.; Baron, J.S.; Miller, T.L. Potential effects of climate change on surface water quality in North America. J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 2000, 36, 347–366. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Delpla, I.; Jung, A.-V.; Baures, E.; Clement, M.; Thomas, O. Impacts of climate change on surface water quality in relation to drinking water production. Environ. Int. 2009, 35, 1225–1233. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Mata, l.J.; Arnell, N.W.; Döll, P.; Jimenez, B.; Miller, K.; Oki, T.; Şen, D.; Shiklomanov, I. The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management. Hydrol. Sci. J. 2008, 53, 3–10. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Medellin-Azuara, J.; Harou, L.; Olivares, M.; Madani, K.; Lund, J.; Howitt, R.; Tanaka, S.; Jenkins, M.; Zhu, T. Adaptability and adaptations of California’s water supply system to dry climate warming. Clim. Chang. 2008, 87, S75–S90. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Piao, S.; Ciai, P.; Huang, Y.; Shen, Z.; Peng, S.; Li, J.; Zhou, L.; Liu, H.; YihuiDing, Y.; Friedlingstein, P.; et al. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 2010, 467, 43–51. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Bates, B.; Kundzewicz, Z.; Wu, S. Climate Change and Water; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2008. [Google Scholar]
- Barnett, T.; Adam, J.; Lettenmaier, D. Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature 2005, 438, 303–309. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Taylor, R.; Scanlon, B.; Döll, P.; Rodell, M.; van Beek, R.; Wada, Y.; Longuevergne, L.; Leblanc, M.; Famiglietti, J.; Edmunds, M.; et al. Ground water and climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2013, 3, 322–329. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Rosenberg, N.; Epstein, D.; Wang, D.; Vail, L.; Srinivasan, R.; Arnold, J. Possible impacts of global warming on the hydrology of the Ogallala aquifer region. Clim. Chang. 1999, 42, 677–692. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Huang, J.; Wang, Y.; Wang, J. Farmer’s Adaptation to Extreme Weather Events through Farm Management and Its Impacts on the Mean and Risk of Rice Yield in China. In Proceedings of the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association’s 2014 Annual Meeting, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 27–29 July 2014. [Google Scholar]
- Kulshreshtha, S.N.; Marleau, R. Canadian Droughts of 2001 and 2002: Economic Impacts on Crop Production in Western Canada; Publication No. 11602-34E03; SRC Saskatchewan Research Council: Saskatoon, SK, Canada, 2003. [Google Scholar]
- Statistics Canada. Table 004-0010-Census of Agriculture, Selected Land Management Practices and Tillage Practices Used to Prepare Land for Seeding, Canada and Provinces, Every 5 Years (Number Unless Otherwise Noted). CANSIM (Database), 2012. Available online: http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a47 (accessed on 3 February 2017).
|Soil Health Indicator||Climate Linkage (Direct and Indirect)||Effects of Increased Droughts||Effects of Increased Excess Moisture||Comments Regarding Other Factors|
|Soil erosion by wind||Wind, temperature and precipitation, soil moisture, vegetation cover||Reduced soil moisture and vegetation cover which increase erosion risk||Increased precipitation intensity can destabilize soil particles||Decreasing snow cover increases exposure to erosion|
|Soil erosion by water||Precipitation intensity, vegetation cover||Water erosion risk decreases||Increased heavy rainfall increases potential for soil erosion||Heavy rainfall on frozen soil increases erosion risk|
|Soil organic carbon||Temperature, precipitation, vegetation cover||Reduced vegetation production reduces carbon||Run-off increases carbon losses||Temperature increases tend to increase carbon losses|
|Soil salinization||Aridity (temperature and precipitation balance), vegetation cover||Evaporation concentrates salts. Reduced vegetation cover can increase salinization||Elevated water tables can increase salinization||Increased variability with drought/wet shifts increases salinization risk|
|Contamination by trace elements||Precipitation intensity||Possible increased concentrations may occur||Increases||Climate effects estimations require further investigation|
|Group||Indicator||Measure||Sensitivity to Climate||Links with Climate-Related Changes|
|Soil Quality||Risk of soil erosion by water||Surface run-off||Strong||Climate change may result in aridity in some parts of the prairies which would increase the probability of surface run-off|
|Higher variability in precipitation and incidence of wet events would lead to higher incident of soil erosion|
|Risk of wind erosion||Soil loss through wind events||Strong||Future increases are expected with simulated increases in spring wind speed|
|Soil organic carbon||Organic carbon level in soil||Medium||Future changes with climate change are not clear because of the interacting effects of management practices|
|Risk of soil salinization||Degree of soil salinity||Strong||Climate change may increase salinity from variations of precipitation and dry events|
|Contamination by trace elements||Strong||Increased wet and dry periods affect contamination|
|Water Quality and Quantity||Risk of water contamination by nitrogen||Nitrogen level released by farms into water bodies||Weak||Water run-off containing nitrogen associated with soil erosion is affected by variable precipitation|
|Risk of water contamination by phosphorus||Phosphorus level released by farms into water bodies||Weak||Water run-off containing phosphorus associated with soil erosion is affected by variable precipitation|
|Water supply and use||Water availability and use||Strong||Climate change would likely impart a reduction in supply, but an increase its demand|
|Farmland management||Soil cover by crops and residue||Duration of exposed soil||Strong||Vegetative cover is affected by climate change|
|Management of farm nutrients and pesticide inputs||Application of organic and inorganic nutrients and pesticides||Medium||Favorable wetter conditions may lead to increased nutrient use. Climate change may lead to increased pest and diseases and the need for their management|
© 2017 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Wheaton, E.; Kulshreshtha, S. Environmental Sustainability of Agriculture Stressed by Changing Extremes of Drought and Excess Moisture: A Conceptual Review. Sustainability 2017, 9, 970. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9060970
Wheaton E, Kulshreshtha S. Environmental Sustainability of Agriculture Stressed by Changing Extremes of Drought and Excess Moisture: A Conceptual Review. Sustainability. 2017; 9(6):970. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9060970Chicago/Turabian Style
Wheaton, Elaine, and Suren Kulshreshtha. 2017. "Environmental Sustainability of Agriculture Stressed by Changing Extremes of Drought and Excess Moisture: A Conceptual Review" Sustainability 9, no. 6: 970. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9060970