Aluminum is a strategic mineral resource, and China’s aluminum production and consumption is fairly large. However, its supply guarantee is uncertain because of a high dependency on external raw materials. This uncertainty may expand, so finding a way to reduce the uncertainty of aluminum resource supply is especially important. This paper applies the SFA method to analyze the aluminum flows in mainland China from 1996 to 2014, and establishes a supply structure model to measure its supply guarantee degree. The results claim that: (1) China’s aluminum production can satisfy demand and even create a surplus; (2) Domestic self-productive primary and secondary aluminum increased at an annual rate of 12% and 24%; (3) The proportion of self-productive secondary aluminum in the supply structure increased from 7.7% in 1996 to 12.8% in 2014, while that of primary aluminum decreased from 79.6% to 42.8%; (4) The total supply guarantee degree decreased from 87.3% to 55.6% in this period. These results provide a feasible way to solve this plight: the proportion of secondary aluminum in the supply structure should be enhanced, and an efficient aluminum resource recycling system needs to be established as soon as possible to ensure its sustainable supply.
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