Understanding the Causality between Carbon Dioxide Emission, Fossil Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Developed Countries: An Empirical Study
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methodologies and Results
2.1. Unit Root Test
Countries | Variables’ series | t-Statistic | Probability | 1% level |
---|---|---|---|---|
France | PCO2 | −7.1534 | 0.0000 | −3.6267 |
ECI | −6.8673 | 0.0000 | −3.6267 | |
GDPP | −4.0121 | 0.0037 | −3.6267 | |
United Kingdom | PCO2 | −7.3724 | 0.0000 | −3.6267 |
ECI | −6.2971 | 0.0000 | −3.6267 | |
GDPP | −4.5310 | 0.0009 | −3.6267 | |
Italy | PCO2 | −6.0026 | 0.0000 | −3.6267 |
ECI | −5.9801 | 0.0000 | −3.6267 | |
GDPP | −4.2535 | 0.0019 | −3.6267 | |
Spain | PCO2 | −5.1532 | 0.0002 | −3.6267 |
ECI | −4.2121 | 0.0021 | −3.6267 | |
GDPP | −3.3031 | 0.0221 | −2.9458 a | |
Sweden | PCO2 | −7.5831 | 0.0000 | −3.6267 |
ECI | −6.7491 | 0.0000 | −3.6267 | |
GDPP | −4.3146 | 0.0016 | −3.6267 | |
Portugal | PCO2 | −10.130 b | 0.0000 | −3.6394 |
ECI | −5.7287 | 0.0000 | −3.6267 | |
GDPP | −3.8520 | 0.0056 | −3.6267 | |
Netherlands | PCO2 | −6.0089 | 0.0000 | −3.6267 |
ECI | −2.9170 c | 0.0530 | −3.6210 | |
GDPP | −3.4434 | 0.0158 | −3.6267 | |
Greece | PCO2 | −6.8068 | 0.0000 | −3.6267 |
ECI | −5.7685 | 0.0000 | −3.6267 | |
GDPP | −5.4214 b | 0.0001 | −3.6463 | |
Denmark | PCO2 | −2.6389 c | 0.0945 | −3.6210 |
ECI | −3.4166 | 0.0166 | −3.6210 | |
GDPP | −3.7237 | 0.0078 | −3.6268 |
2.2. Co-Integration Test
2.3. Granger Causality
ECI does not Granger Cause PCO2 | 33 | 5 | 6.65201 | 0.00065 |
PCO2 does not Granger Cause ECI | 2.82848 | 0.04043 | ||
GDPP does not Granger Cause CO2 | 33 | 5 | 0.92345 | 0.48451 |
CO2 does not Granger Cause GDPP | 0.52934 | 0.75166 | ||
ECI does not Granger Cause PCO2 | 37 | 1 | 2.82977 | 0.10170 |
PCO2 does not Granger Cause ECI | 0.01032 | 0.91968 | ||
GDPP does not Granger Cause CO2 | 37 | 1 | 7.00927 | 0.01220 |
CO2 does not Granger Cause GDPP | 0.00292 | 0.95720 | ||
ECI does not Granger Cause PCO2 | 35 | 3 | 0.91294 | 0.44730 |
PCO2 does not Granger Cause ECI | 1.34415 | 0.28009 | ||
GDPP does not Granger Cause CO2 | 35 | 3 | 0.46991 | 0.70566 |
CO2 does not Granger Cause GDPP | 1.29007 | 0.29716 | ||
ECI does not Granger Cause PCO2 | 37 | 1 | 10.4269 | 0.00275 |
PCO2 does not Granger Cause ECI | 13.7206 | 0.00075 | ||
GDPP does not Granger Cause CO2 | 37 | 1 | 0.00693 | 0.93415 |
CO2 does not Granger Cause GDPP | 0.01997 | 0.88845 | ||
ECI does not Granger Cause PCO2 | 37 | 1 | 5.16707 | 0.02946 |
PCO2 does not Granger Cause ECI | 7.32624 | 0.01055 | ||
GDPP does not Granger Cause CO2 | 37 | 1 | 2.80925 | 0.10290 |
CO2 does not Granger Cause GDPP | 8.4 × 10−7 | 0.99928 | ||
ECI does not Granger Cause PCO2 | 33 | 5 | 2.05856 | 0.10960 |
PCO2 does not Granger Cause ECI | 1.50857 | 0.22773 | ||
GDPP does not Granger Cause CO2 | 33 | 5 | 1.99719 | 0.11887 |
CO2 does not Granger Cause GDPP | 1.08321 | 0.39693 | ||
ECI does not Granger Cause PCO2 | 37 | 1 | 0.47594 | 0.49495 |
PCO2 does not Granger Cause ECI | 3.02977 | 0.09079 | ||
GDPP does not Granger Cause CO2 | 37 | 1 | 1.12933 | 0.29541 |
CO2 does not Granger Cause GDPP | 0.29590 | 0.59001 | ||
ECI does not Granger Cause PCO2 | 37 | 1 | 0.09839 | 0.75569 |
PCO2 does not Granger Cause ECI | 0.77782 | 0.38400 | ||
GDPP does not Granger Cause CO2 | 37 | 1 | 0.00297 | 0.95684 |
CO2 does not Granger Cause GDPP | 0.24599 | 0.62311 | ||
ECI does not Granger Cause PCO2 | 37 | 1 | 4.89681 | 0.03372 |
PCO2 does not Granger Cause ECI | 0.09204 | 0.76345 | ||
GDPP does not Granger Cause CO2 | 37 | 1 | 6.99012 | 0.01231 |
CO2 does not Granger Cause GDPP | 0.03004 | 0.86342 |
Remote (<10%) | Highly Unlikely (10%–35%) | Possible (36%–50%) | Probable (51%–75%) | Highly Likely (76%–90%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
France; Spain; Sweden; Denmark | United Kingdom; Portugal; | Italy; Netherlands | Greece | |
France; Spain; Sweden; Netherlands | Italy; Portugal; | Greece | Denmark | |
Denmark | United Kingdom; Sweden; Portugal; Netherlands | France | Italy | |
Italy | Portugal | France; Netherlands; Greece | Spain;Denmark |
3. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
- Allen, M.R.; Frame, D.J.; Huntingford, C.; Jones, C.D.; Lowe, J.A.; Meinshausen, M.; Meinshausen, N. Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne. Nature 2009, 458, 1163–1166. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Matthews, H.D.; Gillett, N.P.; Stott, P.A.; Zickfeld, K. The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions. Nature 2009, 459, 829–832. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Meinshausen, M.; Meinshausen, N.; Hare, W.; Raper, S.C.B.; Frieler, K.; Knutti, R.; Frame, D.J.; Allen, M.R. Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 degree. Nature 2009, 458, 1158–1162. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Qin, D. Recent progress on climatic change science. Adv. Clim. Change Res. 2007, 3, 63–73. [Google Scholar]
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Cambridge University Press: New York, NY, USA, 2007. [Google Scholar]
- Aunan, K.; Fang, J.; Hu, T.; Seip, H.M.; Vennemo, H. Climate change and air quality: Measures with co-benefits in China. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2006, 40, 4822–4829. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Xue, B.; Li, C.; Liu, Z.; Geng, Y.; Xi, F. Analysis on CO2 emission and urbanization at global level during 1970–2007. Adv. Clim. Change Res. 2011, 7, 423–427. [Google Scholar]
- Van Renssen, S. Climate policy confronts competitiveness. Nat. Clim. Change 2014, 4, 8–9. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wang, D.; Sun, G. Relationships between carbon emissions and economic growth, foreign direct investment and export in China. Appl. Mech. Mater. 2014, 448, 4544–4547. [Google Scholar]
- Yue, T.; Long, R.; Chen, H.; Zhao, X. The optimal CO2 emissions reduction path in Jiangsu province: An expanded IPAT approach. Appl. Energy 2013, 112, 1510–1517. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hope, C.; Hope, M. The social cost of CO2 in a low-growth world. Nat. Clim. Change 2013, 3, 722–724. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lu, W.; Chen, C.; Su, M.; Chen, B.; Cai, Y.; Xing, T. Urban energy consumption and related carbon emission estimation: A study at the sector scale. Front. Earth Sci. 2013, 7, 480–486. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Belke, A.; Dreger, C.; de Haan, F. Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the co-integration relationship. Available online: http://www.rwi-essen.de/media/content/pages/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/REP_10_190.pdf (accessed on 30 January 2014).
- Firouz, F. Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP: A Markov-switching (MS) causality. Energy 2011, 36, 4165–4170. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Engle, R.F.; Granger, C. Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica 1987, 55, 251–276. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Liu, Z.; Guan, D.; Crawford-Brown, D.; Zhang, Q.; He, K. Energy policy: A low-carbon road map for China. Nature 2013, 500, 143–145. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Geng, Y. Eco-indicators: Improve China’s sustainability targets. Nature 2011, 477. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Chen, Y.; Timilsina, H.; Landis, F. Economic implications of reducing carbon emissions from energy use and industrial processes in Brazil. J. Environ. Manag. 2013, 130, 436–446. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zhang, Y.; Zhao, T. Analysis on emission reduction targets of carbon dioxide in China. Adv. Mater. Res. 2013, 734, 1891–1895. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zhang, M.; Wang, W. Decouple indicators on the CO2 emission-economic growth linkage: The Jiangsu Province case. Ecol. Indicat. 2013, 32, 239–244. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ma, Z.; Xue, B.; Geng, Y.; Ren, W.; Fujita, T.; Zhang, Z.; de Oliveira, J.P.; Jacques, D.A.; Xi, F. Co-benefits analysis on climate change and environmental effects of wind-power: A case study from Xinjiang, China. Renew. Energy 2013, 57, 35–42. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ang, J.B. Economic development, pollutant emissions and energy consumption in Malaysia. J. Policy Model. 2008, 30, 271–278. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Shahbaz, M.; Kumar Tiwari, A.; Nasir, M. The effects of financial development, economic growth, coal consumption and trade openness on CO2 emissions in South Africa. Energy Policy 2013, 61, 1452–1459. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Menyah, K.; Wolde-Rufael, Y. Energy consumption, pollutant emissions and economic growth in South Africa. Energy Econ. 2010, 32, 1374–1382. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ang, J.B. CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and output in France. Energy Policy 2007, 35, 4772–4778. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Marrero, G.A. Greenhouse gases emissions, growth and the energy mix in Europe. Energy Econ. 2010, 32, 1356–1363. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Marrero, G.A.; Ramos-Real, F.J. Activity sectors and energy intensity: Decomposition analysis and policy implications for European countries (1991–2005). Energies 2013, 6, 2521–2540. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kirsten, S. Renewable Energy Sources Act and Trading of Emission Certificates: A national and a supranational tool direct energy turnover to renewable electricity-supply in Germany. Energy Policy 2014, 64, 302–312. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
© 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
Share and Cite
Xue, B.; Geng, Y.; Müller, K.; Lu, C.; Ren, W. Understanding the Causality between Carbon Dioxide Emission, Fossil Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Developed Countries: An Empirical Study. Sustainability 2014, 6, 1037-1045. https://doi.org/10.3390/su6021037
Xue B, Geng Y, Müller K, Lu C, Ren W. Understanding the Causality between Carbon Dioxide Emission, Fossil Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Developed Countries: An Empirical Study. Sustainability. 2014; 6(2):1037-1045. https://doi.org/10.3390/su6021037
Chicago/Turabian StyleXue, Bing, Yong Geng, Katrin Müller, Chengpeng Lu, and Wanxia Ren. 2014. "Understanding the Causality between Carbon Dioxide Emission, Fossil Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Developed Countries: An Empirical Study" Sustainability 6, no. 2: 1037-1045. https://doi.org/10.3390/su6021037
APA StyleXue, B., Geng, Y., Müller, K., Lu, C., & Ren, W. (2014). Understanding the Causality between Carbon Dioxide Emission, Fossil Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Developed Countries: An Empirical Study. Sustainability, 6(2), 1037-1045. https://doi.org/10.3390/su6021037