Economic–Environmental Synergy in Construction: An Integrated CCD-PDA-GCA Framework for 30 Developed Economies

As a primary energy consumer and carbon emitter, the construction industry (CI) faces a growing conflict between traditional energy-intensive growth models and global sustainable development goals. To promote the sustainable development of the CI, this study establishes a sequential analytical framework following the logic of “coupling evaluation–driving force identification–causal inference” across 30 developed economies (DE) from 2000 to 2022. Initially, the coupling coordination degree (CCD) between the economic and environmental systems of the CI was evaluated, utilizing the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) to characterize the transition from relative to absolute decoupling. The results show that the economy and the environment in the construction industry (CEECI) for DE is generally high (0.70–0.90). Subsequently, based on Green Innovation Growth (GIG) theory, Panel Data Analysis (PDA) is employed to identify the key drivers of the coupling between the economy and CEECI. The results show that for every 1% increase in per capita GDP, CEECI increases by approximately 0.035; for every 1% increase in science and technology investment (ST Inv), CEECI increases by 0.045; and for every 1 unit increase in building energy use (BEU), CEECI decreases by 0.008. Furthermore, Granger causality analysis (GCA) was used to examine the bidirectional predictive relationship. Furthermore, there is a two-way correlation between GDP and CEECI, and a one-way correlation between CEECI and ST Inv. Overall, our results show that further decoupling requires innovation, not just economic growth; therefore, the CI should optimize its industrial structure, prioritize technological innovation, strengthen lifecycle energy management, and promote coordinated global CI improvement.