The Potential of Autonomous and Semi-Autonomous Vehicles in Supporting the Sustainable Development of Road Freight Transport

Road freight transport (RFT) faces growing pressure from increasing freight demand, stricter environmental requirements, and persistent driver shortages. Automation technologies (ATes)—especially semi-autonomous driving—are increasingly viewed as a practical pathway toward improving the sustainability performance of freight operations; however, their effects depend strongly on infrastructure and operational conditions. This study evaluates the sustainability potential of autonomous and semi-autonomous trucks through an integrated framework combining (i) a structured review of technical and regulatory developments, (ii) surveys of transport enterprises (TEes) and road users (RUs), (iii) SWOT/TOWS analysis, and (iv) a cost minimization logistics model that links operational feasibility to infrastructure readiness (IR). The proposed model minimizes cost per tonne-kilometre and introduces an Infrastructure Readiness Score (IRS) to represent the share of a route that can be operated in automated mode; it also accounts for fuel savings from platooning and higher maintenance and capital costs of semi-autonomous vehicles (SAVs). Results indicate that, as IRS increases, semi-autonomous operations achieve higher daily mileage and lower unit costs, with a break-even point at approximately IRS ≈ 0.125. Beyond this threshold, unit costs decline from EUR 0.0433 to EUR 0.0348 per tonne-kilometre as IRS rises toward 0.6, after which further infrastructure improvements yield diminishing mileage gains. These cost and utilization improvements imply sustainability benefits via improved energy efficiency and reduced emissions intensity per tonne-kilometre. Nevertheless, survey evidence highlights major adoption barriers, including insufficient IR, regulatory uncertainty, technological reliability concerns, and limited public trust in fully autonomous systems. Overall, the findings support semi-autonomous trucking as the most feasible near-term stage of transition, while emphasizing that infrastructure upgrades and governance mechanisms are critical for scaling sustainability gains.