Projecting Türkiye’s CO₂ Emissions Future: Multivariate Forecast of Energy–Economy–Environment Interactions and Anthropogenic Drivers

Global warming has become a top priority on the international environmental policy agenda. The recent rise in CO₂ emissions observed in Türkiye has further emphasized the country’s critical role in addressing climate change. This study aims to estimate Türkiye’s CO₂ emissions through 2030 and identify the key socioeconomic and environmental factors driving these emissions, using multiple linear regression (MLR) and time series analysis methods. Six primary variables are examined: population, gross domestic product (GDP), CO₂ intensity, per capita energy consumption, total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and forest area. This study introduces a new multivariate forecasting framework that integrates time series projections with multiple linear regression and elasticity-based sensitivity analysis, providing novel insight into the relative influence of key emission drivers compared to prior research. The results suggest that, if current policy trends persist, Türkiye’s CO₂ emissions will increase substantially by 2030. Variables such as GHG emissions, energy consumption, and population growth are found to have an increasing effect on emissions, while the limited expansion of forest areas is insufficient to offset this trend. In contrast, the negative correlation between GDP and CO₂ emissions suggests that economic growth can occur in alignment with environmental sustainability. The model’s validity is supported by a high R² (0.99) value and low error rates. The findings indicate that Türkiye must reassess its current strategies and strengthen policies targeting renewable energy, energy efficiency, and carbon sinks to achieve its climate goals. The proposed framework provides a transparent basis for climate planning and policy prioritization in Türkiye.