Ecological Outcomes and Societal Transformation: Multiple Visions for Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Deep Dive Interviews
2.2. Biennial National Surveys
3. Results
3.1. Anticipated Futures
3.1.1. Co-Existing Community Expectations
I don’t really have much hope for the future, but it’s almost like you can’t stop trying. I definitely have my days where I’m like ‘this is pointless because people aren’t going to change fast enough’… And that frustrates me because I don’t want to get to that point where it’s too late … but at the same time you can’t give up, because if you give up, then what do we do now? What do we do?Institutional stakeholder
There is this increasing community concern around that issue, and that’s really all that is going to ever change politics. As ordinary people in Australia, we don’t have the huge resources that the fossil fuel billionaires have … but we do have morality and the ability to reach people and be trusted by people. So I think that that is what in the end will win.Civil society community
I’d like to see continuing small improvements, or some really wide scale, large improvements, but keep moving forward with small improvements in areas like fisheries management of these really important ecosystems, and ways that we can help restore them. If we can maintain 27 more years of small improvements, I would like to think that by 2050 the Reef won’t be cataclysmically degraded at that point. And then past 2050, if we can make it to that point with the Reef in its relatively current state, then it does have a chance to improve beyond that point.Civil society community
3.1.2. Australian Public Expectations
3.1.3. Changing GBR Futures Through Assisted Recovery and Adaptation
3.1.4. Public Outcome Perceptions
3.2. Scaled Support for Intervention Approaches
4. Discussion
- Strong parallel action both by Australian governments and by GBR management and research institutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other anthropogenic pressures on the GBR.
- Similarly, strong parallel action to support stewardship activities in the GBR at multiple scales.
- Long-term funding commitment to restoration and adaptation R&D and implementation.
- Rigorous risk assessment (including assessment of social, cultural, and economic risks) and monitoring of restoration and adaptation interventions.
- Recognition of the multiple values—social, cultural, economic, and ecological—that inhere in the Reef and which require nurturing, both through and in addition to, measures focused on coral restoration and adaptation.
- Transparent communication of research outcomes and intervention risks to Reef Traditional Owners, Reef communities and stakeholders, and the broader public.
- Continuing dialogue with Reef Traditional Owners, Reef communities, stakeholders, and the broader public over how best to support the resilience of the GBR and the communities and industries that are a part of it.
- The development of personal and institutional capacities to work relationally, respond effectively and create multiple possibilities and outcomes for the GBR.
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
| GBR | Great Barrier Reef |
| RRAP | Reef Restoration and Adaptation Program |
Appendix A
Appendix A.1. Detailed Deep Dive Methodology
- Recruitment
- Traditional Owners with ongoing traditional connections to and rights over the Reef (10 interviews)
- Livelihood communities including individuals and businesses that gain income, profit or other financial benefits from the Reef (22 interviews)
- Institutional stakeholders, including representatives from scientific, government and community institutions (28 interviews)
- Civil society communities including reef NGOs, wildlife advocates, conservationists and recreational users (57 interviews)
- Interview protocol
- Background and relationships to the Reef
- 1: Can you please tell me a bit about yourself and your history with the Great Barrier Reef?
- Perceptions of the Reef’s future;
- 2a: Thinking about the Reef, what do you think its most likely future will be? What do you think the Reef will look like in 2050 and beyond? Including prompts for discussion of causes and drivers, existing management, implications/opportunities, uncertainties.
- 2b: What would a better future for the Reef look like? What does the best possible future look like? Prompts regarding who/what would change and how, how participants and communities would be involved, personal and collective implications/opportunities/uncertainties
- Responses to the prospect of technological interventions to support the GBR
- Preamble: I’d like to focus on the interventions being explored through RRAP which are:
- -
- Enhancing the settlement of coral larvae on degraded reefs to speed up their recovery (also known as coral IVF).
- -
- Selecting and breeding coral for heat-tolerance.
- -
- Reproducing and growing coral in land-based aquaculture facilities for use in restoration projects.
- -
- Reducing the exposure of reefs to solar radiation during extreme heat events using cloud brightening or fogging.
- 3a: When I talk about these interventions, what thoughts come to mind? Prompts regarding uncertainties/assumptions/tacit knowledge, imagined effect (positive and negative) on self and others, different responses to the different interventions
- 3b: What (if anything) would you need to know or see to feel confident that these interventions were being carried out for the right reasons and in the right way?
- 3c: Other technological options we haven’t foreseen yet might become available. In your view, is technological intervention a viable option for the Reef? Why/Why not?
- Analysis
Appendix A.2. Detailed Survey Methodology
- Sampling and Recruitment
- The study employed a stratified sampling design to capture both national and Reef-adjacent perspectives. For the national sample, quotas based on Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) census benchmarks (gender, age, and state/territory of residence) were applied to maintain representativeness. For the regional Queensland sample, defined as residents living within 50 km of the GBR coastline, soft quotas were applied to balance urban and rural perspectives. Postcodes were collected to validate respondents’ location and to allow sub-regional analyses.
- Participation was voluntary and anonymous aligned with the obtained ethics approval. Participants were recruited through online research panels managed by a professional market research provider. Multiple panels were utilized to reduce the likelihood of over-representing affluent or highly survey-active populations. Incentives, managed and distributed directly by the provider, were either monetary or points-based and were designed to appeal to a wide audience, thereby increasing participation across socio-economic strata.
- Survey Instrument
- The questionnaire (average completion time 20–25 min) comprised five core sections and an experimental component:
- a.
- Background and demographics—residency, Reef visitation, self-rated knowledge, factual knowledge quiz, gender, age, education, employment, and (for regional respondents) economic dependence on the Reef.
- b.
- Values and benefits of the GBR—items on national, intrinsic, and personal significance.
- c.
- Perceived threats and risks—concern about environmental condition, climate change, industries (agriculture, mining, tourism, shipping), and ecological pressures (e.g., Crown-of-thorns starfish).
- d.
- Attitudes to management—confidence in Reef management, optimism, sufficiency of current measures, trust in organizations (federal/state government, NGOs, international agencies, scientific institutions), and perceived regulatory efficacy.
- e.
- Restoration and adaptation—general views on intervention (e.g., prevention vs. restoration vs. resilience-building), fairness (procedural, distributional), and acceptance of broad options.
- Quasi-experimental design: Each respondent was randomly assigned one detailed description of a potential intervention, written in plain English with a balanced discussion of benefits, risks, and uncertainties.
- For their assigned intervention, respondents were asked about:
- Perceived neutrality and clarity of the description.
- Emotional responses (10 discrete emotions: cautious, worried, sadness, powerless, scared, proud, hopeful, happy, confident, relieved).
- Knowledge and information needs (past awareness, desired future knowledge, preferred communication channels).
- Perceptions of risks, benefits, safety, cost-effectiveness, cultural impacts, and ethical considerations.
- Fairness and trust (procedural, distributional, trust in regulators and institutions).
- Acceptance and support (willingness to support research, trials, and large-scale deployment; willingness to donate or participate in engagement processes).
- Data Quality Procedures
- Forced responses: The platform required completion of all questions to minimize missing data.
- Completion checks: Surveys not finished in full were excluded.
- Speeding checks: Surveys completed in implausibly short times were removed.
- Attention checks: Embedded items assessed attentiveness, with failures excluded.
- Quota monitoring: Sample composition was monitored in real time to align with ABS benchmarks.
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Paxton, G.; Lockie, S.; Dadpour, R.; Bartelet, H.A.; Taylor, B. Ecological Outcomes and Societal Transformation: Multiple Visions for Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef. Sustainability 2025, 17, 9906. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17219906
Paxton G, Lockie S, Dadpour R, Bartelet HA, Taylor B. Ecological Outcomes and Societal Transformation: Multiple Visions for Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef. Sustainability. 2025; 17(21):9906. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17219906
Chicago/Turabian StylePaxton, Gillian, Stewart Lockie, Rana Dadpour, Henry A. Bartelet, and Bruce Taylor. 2025. "Ecological Outcomes and Societal Transformation: Multiple Visions for Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef" Sustainability 17, no. 21: 9906. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17219906
APA StylePaxton, G., Lockie, S., Dadpour, R., Bartelet, H. A., & Taylor, B. (2025). Ecological Outcomes and Societal Transformation: Multiple Visions for Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef. Sustainability, 17(21), 9906. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17219906

