Smart Routing for Sustainable Shipping: A Review of Trajectory Optimization Approaches in Waterborne Transport
Abstract
1. Introduction
- To classify and analyze the current body of research based on methods, technologies, and digital strategies for vessel trajectory optimization;
- To identify key challenges, research gaps, and limitations in current trajectory optimization approaches for waterborne transport;
- To outline emerging trends and future research directions toward greener and more intelligent maritime navigation.
Key Concepts and Definitions
2. Methodology
2.1. Literature Search
- Scopus
- Web of Science
- IEEE Xplore
- ScienceDirect
- MDPI
- SpringerLink
- Google Scholar
2.2. Screening and Selection Criteria
- Direct relevance to trajectory optimization, path planning, or route prediction for maritime or inland waterborne transport
- Clear contribution to smart routing, sustainability, or digitalization
- Use of technical or methodological frameworks (e.g., algorithms, models, systems)
- Peer-reviewed or reputable conference papers
2.3. Categorization and Thematic Grouping
- AI/ML-Based Ship Trajectory Prediction and Forecasting
- Trajectory Optimization and Path Planning Algorithms
- Data-Driven and Big Data Approaches Using AIS/Geographic Information System (GIS)
- Weather Routing and Environmental Optimization
- Digital Platforms, Smart Ports, and Decision Support Systems
- Hybrid, Rule-Based, and COLREGs-Oriented Systems for Autonomous or Safe Navigation
2.4. Review Synthesis
3. Literature Review
3.1. AI/ML-Based Ship Trajectory Prediction and Forecasting
3.1.1. Prediction Approaches
3.1.2. Forecasting Approaches
- Transformer-based prediction models outperform LSTM in long-term dependency modeling, enabling highly accurate forecasts. Dual-path spatial-temporal attention networks integrate multi-attribute information to improve prediction accuracy by over 15%.
- LSTM and Bi-LSTM remain dominant, achieving RMSE values between 0.02 and 0.15 for AIS-driven predictions. These models improve vessel ETA estimates, supporting traffic safety.
- CNN-GRU hybrids, ConvLSTM, and CNN-LSTM-SE improve spatio-temporal feature extraction, enhancing prediction robustness under complex maritime dynamics.
- Graph Attention Networks handle congested waterways, while diffusion probability encoders balance prediction determinacy and diversity. Variational Autoencoder–Transformer hybrids (ShipTrack-TVAE) achieve up to 20% better accuracy in dense maritime environments.
3.2. Trajectory Optimization and Path Planning Algorithms
3.2.1. Trajectory Optimization
3.2.2. Path Planning Algorithms
- Algorithms like A*, Dijkstra, and MILP provide globally optimal solutions, especially useful in constrained waters such as port entries.
- PSO minimizes fuel use and CO2 emissions while ensuring safe navigation. Genetic Algorithms (GA) support multi-objective optimization, reducing voyage costs and energy demand.
- Real-time speed re-optimization using MPC achieves significant fuel savings and emission reductions.
- Combining deep neural networks with analytical cost functions provides adaptive performance under uncertain weather and traffic conditions.
3.3. Data-Driven and Big Data Approaches Using AIS/GIS
3.3.1. Data-Driven Approaches
3.3.2. Big Data Approaches
- Advanced clustering techniques like DBSCAN and HDBSCAN improve the detection of commonly used routes, while adaptive waypoint extraction enhances traffic mapping accuracy.
- AIS-driven maritime traffic network models predict congestion and improve route connectivity, allowing for strategic avoidance of bottlenecks.
- Combining AIS data with predictive models accelerates real-time decision-making for traffic control and routing.
3.4. Weather Routing and Environmental Optimization
- Route Planning involves static or pre-departure optimization methods, which generate initial routes based on climatological data or forecast conditions available before sailing. Methods include deterministic algorithms (e.g., Dijkstra, A*), isochrone techniques, and dynamic programming. These approaches optimize for expected voyage duration, fuel use, or emissions under baseline weather assumptions.
- Weather-Dependent Routing is an adaptive routing method that dynamically updates planned trajectories using near-real-time meteorological and oceanographic forecasts. These approaches employ stochastic optimization, genetic algorithms, reinforcement learning, and scenario-based methods to adjust routes during a voyage. They are designed to handle uncertainties in changing environmental conditions, improving resilience and energy efficiency.
- Environmental Speed Optimization is a specific subset of weather routing strategies in which the vessel’s speed profile is adjusted along a fixed or semi-fixed route to minimize fuel consumption, emissions, or hull stresses under environmental constraints. Unlike route planning, which focuses on spatial trajectory, speed optimization focuses on temporal adjustments and power management.
3.4.1. Adaptive Weather-Dependent Routing
3.4.2. Environmental Speed Optimization (As a Subset of Weather Routing)
- Models incorporating probabilistic weather scenarios [65] enhance safety under uncertainty.
3.5. Digital Platforms, Smart Ports, and Decision Support Systems
3.5.1. Smart Ports, E-Navigation Platforms, and Data Integration
3.5.2. Decision Support Systems and AI-Driven Route Optimization
3.5.3. Cybernetic Decisions
3.5.4. Decision Support System
- Port Community Systems and the Maritime Single Window streamline decision-making and enable predictive scheduling.
- Blockchain-based systems ensure trusted, real-time exchange of routing and performance data across stakeholders.
- AI-powered dashboards combine ETA predictions, optimization engines, and environmental compliance into unified interfaces.
3.6. Hybrid and Rule-Based Systems with COLREGs Considerations
3.6.1. COLREGs-Oriented and Hybrid Control Frameworks
3.6.2. Data-Driven, GIS, and Learning-Oriented Methods for Autonomous Navigation
- Potential Energy-based A*, multi-target artificial potential fields, and MPCC improve safety in mixed-traffic environments.
- Multi-objective PSO combined with Multi-Criteria Decision Making optimizes trade-offs between emissions, safety, and voyage time.
- Pre-compiled trajectory libraries improve path feasibility for MASS navigating restricted inland waterways.
4. Supplementary Insights and New Trends in Trajectory Optimization Research
- Digital Strategies, including:
- Information Technologies in Shipping
- Cybernetic Decisions
- Weather Routing
- Decision Support Systems
- Methods, including:
- Multi-Objective Optimization
- Optimization Algorithms
- Technologies, including:
- Artificial Intelligence
- High Performance Computing
- Computational Fluid Dynamics
4.1. Implemented Methods
4.1.1. Multi-Objective Optimization
4.1.2. Optimization Algorithms
4.2. Implemented Technologies
4.2.1. Artificial Intelligence
4.2.2. Role of Enabling Technologies
4.3. Implemented Digital Strategies
4.3.1. Information Technologies in Shipping
4.3.2. Weather Routing
4.4. Contributions to Smart Routing and Sustainable Shipping
4.4.1. Fuel Efficiency and Emission Reduction
4.4.2. Safety and Comfort
4.4.3. Economic Benefits
4.4.4. Environmental Sustainability
4.5. New Trends in Scientific Research
- Increased integration of AI with digital platforms for predictive route optimization.
- Growing interest in real-time adaptive routing through edge and cloud-based systems.
- Expansion of hybrid multi-objective optimization frameworks combining emissions, ETA, cost, and safety considerations.
- Stronger emphasis on policy-aware smart routing, including IMO emissions reduction goals.
5. Open Challenges and Future Directions
5.1. Emerging Trends
- Ship Route Optimization Using Machine Learning Techniques. The consistent interest in optimizing ship routes using machine learning techniques highlights the ongoing importance of improving efficiency and reducing costs in maritime transport. This theme encompasses various approaches, including dynamic programming, genetic algorithms, and neural networks, to enhance route planning and decision-making processes for ships [135,136,137].
- Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) Path Planning. The development of path planning algorithms for autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) remains a consistent area of research. This theme focuses on optimizing the trajectories of AUVs to navigate complex underwater environments, considering factors such as ocean currents, obstacles, and energy efficiency [138,139,140].
- Vessel Trajectory Prediction Using AIS Data. The prediction of vessel trajectories using AIS data is a critical area of research for improving maritime traffic management and safety. This theme involves the use of machine learning models, such as LSTM and ConvLSTM, to predict the future positions of vessels based on historical AIS data [141,142].
- Optimization Techniques for Multimodal Transport. The novel theme of optimizing multimodal transport routes, particularly in the context of green and sustainable logistics, is emerging as a significant area of interest. This theme explores the optimization of transport routes that involve multiple modes of transportation, such as road, rail, and waterways, with a focus on reducing environmental impact and improving efficiency [143].
- Trajectory Optimization for Connected and Automated Vehicles. The optimization of trajectories for connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) is a novel and rapidly growing area of research. This theme addresses the challenges of planning optimal paths for CAVs, considering factors such as limited computing capacity, dynamic environments, and the need for real-time decision-making [144,145,146].
5.2. Future Research Directions
- Integrated Hybrid Models for Multi-Factor Optimization. There is a growing need to develop hybrid models that integrate multiple optimization criteria, such as fuel consumption, emission levels, navigational safety, time reliability, and economic cost. Future studies should focus on multi-objective and multi-modal frameworks that dynamically balance these often-conflicting objectives, especially under uncertain environmental and traffic conditions [56,68,71,103].
- Real-Time Adaptive Routing with Edge and Cloud Computing. Despite advances in predictive modeling, the deployment of real-time adaptive routing systems remains limited. Future work should leverage edge computing and cloud-based decision platforms to enable continuous monitoring, context-aware adjustments, and seamless coordination between vessels, ports, and fleet operators [25,73,78,83].
- Explainable and Trustworthy AI in Maritime Navigation. As AI-based methods increasingly influence critical routing decisions, ensuring transparency, explainability, and trustworthiness becomes essential. Research into XAI for maritime applications can improve user confidence, facilitate regulatory acceptance, and support human–AI collaboration, particularly in autonomous or semi-autonomous navigation systems [32,39,60,65].
- Trajectory Optimization for Inland and Riverine Transport. The majority of existing studies focus on deep-sea or coastal navigation. Inland waterways, however, present unique challenges such as narrow passages, complex traffic patterns, and local regulatory constraints. Future research should explore context-specific optimization models and datasets tailored to inland and mixed-use transport corridors [5,67,86,95].
- Integration with Environmental and Policy Frameworks. Trajectory optimization research should increasingly align with international environmental regulations (e.g., International Maritime Organization (IMO) GHG Strategy, EU Fit for 55) and support sustainability reporting. This includes designing routing systems that explicitly account for carbon intensity indicators, emission compliance zones, and energy efficiency targets [5,69,76,84].
- Explainable AI for Safety-Critical Maritime Applications. As vessel trajectory optimization relies on black-box AI systems, the need for interpretable models becomes more urgent, especially in safety-critical and regulatory-sensitive contexts. Future research should explore the integration of XAI techniques—such as SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME), attention visualizations, and saliency mapping—into deep learning frameworks used for ship trajectory prediction. In particular, developing explainable extensions of LSTM, GRU, or Transformer-based models could support greater transparency in decision-making processes, facilitate model validation by maritime authorities, and enable human–AI collaboration on the bridge. Such advancements will be essential for regulatory acceptance and operational trust in autonomous and AI-augmented navigation systems [119].
- A promising yet under-explored area is inland navigation, which differs from open-sea navigation in several important ways. Inland waterways are characterized by narrow and shallow passages, locks and bridges, high traffic density with various vessel types, and the strong influence of riverine hydrology, such as currents, floods, and fog. These conditions necessitate specialized approaches to trajectory prediction, path planning, and weather routing that differ from those used in the deep sea. For instance, inland trajectory forecasting requires higher-resolution AIS/GIS data, and path planning must consider regulatory constraints on traffic separation and passage through locks. Inland weather routing focuses less on ocean swell and more on localized meteorological factors, such as fog and ice formation. Therefore, future studies should develop models tailored to inland conditions to ensure that optimization methods address the specific challenges of riverine and canal-based transport.
6. Discussion
- The integration of high-performance computing for solving complex optimization tasks in near-real time [133],
- The use of CFD-based models for holistic hull–propeller–engine optimization [147],
- And the development of trajectory libraries and generative models for constrained and autonomous operations [148].
Interoperability and Standardization as a Deployment Bottleneck
7. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
AI | Artificial Intelligence |
AIS | Automatic Identification System |
AUV | Autonomous Underwater Vehicle |
BiGRU | Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit |
CFD | Computational Fluid Dynamics |
COLREGs | International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea |
CNN | Convolutional Neural Network |
ConvLSTM | Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory |
DBSCAN | Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise |
DL | Deep Learning |
DNN | Deep Neural Network |
DSS | Decision Support System |
ENC | Electronic Navigational Chart |
ETA | Estimated Time of Arrival |
FIS | Fairway Information Services |
GA | Genetic Algorithms |
GIS | Geographic Information System |
GRU | Gated Recurrent Unit |
HPC | High Performance Computing |
IALA | International Association of Marine Aids to Navigation and Lighthouse Authorities |
IENC | Inland Electronic Navigational Chart |
IHO | International Hydrographic Organization |
IMO | International Maritime Organization |
IoT | Internet of Things |
LIME | Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations |
LSTM | Long Short-Term Memory |
MASS | Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship |
MDPI | Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
MILP | Mixed-Integer Linear Programming |
MHA | Multi-Head Attention Mechanism |
ML | Machine Learning |
MOPSO | Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization |
PSO | Particle Swarm Optimization |
RIS | River Information Services |
RMSE | Root Mean Square Error |
RNN | Recurrent Neural Network |
RTZ | Route Exchange Format |
SHAP | SHapley Additive exPlanations |
STMGCN | Spatio-Temporal Multigraph Convolutional Network |
VAE | Variational Autoencoder |
VHF | Very High Frequency (radio communication) |
VTS | Vessel Traffic Services |
XAI | Explainable Artificial Intelligence |
Appendix A
Appendix A.1. CFD
Appendix A.2. High Performance Computing
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Method/Model | Typical Use Case | Reported Accuracy (RMSE/MAE) | Strengths | Limitations | Computational Complexity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
LSTM [7,9,19] | AIS-based short/long-term prediction | RMSE: ~0.02–0.15 (varies by dataset) | Handles temporal sequences well; good generalization | Limited interpretability; slower training | Medium |
Transformer [10,18,36] | High-density traffic and long sequences | MAE: ~0.01–0.10 | Captures long-term dependencies; high accuracy | High computational cost; complex model tuning | High |
CNN-GRU [17] | Tactical-level prediction using AIS data | RMSE: ~0.02–0.10 | Good spatio-temporal feature fusion; efficient | Less suited for long-term dependencies | Medium |
Bi-LSTM with Attention [15,24,40] | Real-time collision avoidance | RMSE: ~0.01–0.12 | Improved focus on critical segments; higher precision | May overfit with limited AIS data | Medium |
ConvLSTM [16,34] | Spatio-temporal forecasting | RMSE: ~0.03–0.09 | Captures spatial and temporal context simultaneously | Slower inference compared to vanilla LSTM | High |
GRU + Graph Attention Net [25,28] | Dense maritime traffic areas | MAE: ~0.01–0.07 | Incorporates vessel interactions; robust in congestion | Complex architecture; explainability still limited | Medium |
Hybrid (CNN-LSTM) [27,41,44] | Route planning and AIS data integration | RMSE: ~0.02–0.08 | Combines spatial and temporal modeling effectively | Model complexity; needs tuning per use case | High |
SocialVAE + Transformer [26,36] | Prediction in congested waterways | MAE: ~0.01–0.05 | Probabilistic modeling; captures uncertainty/diversity | High training time; requires large datasets | High |
Statistical Models (Kalman, SVM) [9,12,43] | Baseline or explainable prediction | MAE: ~0.05–0.25 | Lightweight; interpretable | Less accurate on non-linear or noisy data | Low |
Method/Approach | Main Advantages | Main Limitations | Typical Applications |
---|---|---|---|
A*/Dijkstra [49,54] | Finds optimal paths, efficient for simple maps | Sensitive to dynamic conditions; limited for real-time replanning | Pre-departure strategic route planning |
Genetic Algorithms [50] | Good for multi-objective optimization, handles nonlinearities | Requires tuning; slower convergence on large datasets | Energy-efficient routing under variable weather |
Particle Swarm Optimization [2,48] | Fast convergence, balances fuel savings and collision avoidance | Can get trapped in local optima; requires careful initialization | Weather-aware, fuel-efficient navigation |
Model Predictive Control [52] | Enables real-time trajectory adjustments, integrates COLREGs | Computationally demanding; dependent on accurate forecasts | Collision avoidance, dynamic traffic |
Reinforcement Learning [51,55] | Learn adaptive navigation strategies from experience | Requires large training datasets; interpretability issues | Autonomous MASS control, inland waterways |
Potential Field Methods [53] | Simple, fast, effective for avoiding obstacles | Prone to local minimum; not robust in congested traffic | Tactical collision avoidance |
Hybrid Frameworks [56] | Combine prediction, optimization, and decision-support | Higher system complexity; integration challenges | Smart routing in digital twin ecosystems |
Method/Technology | Description | Contribution |
---|---|---|
Dijkstra Algorithm [128] | Dynamic route optimization considering weather and ship position | Fuel efficiency, safety |
A* Search Algorithm [3] | Optimal route recommendations using historical data | Cost savings, efficiency |
Model Predictive Control [129] | Real-time speed re-optimization based on dynamic conditions | Energy reduction, emissions control |
Evolutionary Algorithms [130,131,132] | Multi-objective route optimization | Fuel savings, emission reduction |
High Performance Computing (HPC) [133] | Efficient computation for real-time optimization | Real-time application, efficiency |
On-Board Decision Support Systems [128] | Real-time decision-making integration | Dynamic adjustments, safety |
Trajectory Libraries [3,51,95] | Pre-generated trajectory units for optimal sequence planning | Efficiency in restricted waters |
Generative Models [51] | Predicting future trajectories for risk reduction | Safety, optimal planning |
Weather Routing [93,132] | Optimization based on weather forecasts and hydrodynamic simulations | Fuel efficiency, safety, comfort |
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Kalinichenko, Y.; Rudenko, S.; Holovan, A.; Vasalatii, N.; Zaiets, A.; Koliesnik, O.; Santana, L.O.; Dolynska, N. Smart Routing for Sustainable Shipping: A Review of Trajectory Optimization Approaches in Waterborne Transport. Sustainability 2025, 17, 8466. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17188466
Kalinichenko Y, Rudenko S, Holovan A, Vasalatii N, Zaiets A, Koliesnik O, Santana LO, Dolynska N. Smart Routing for Sustainable Shipping: A Review of Trajectory Optimization Approaches in Waterborne Transport. Sustainability. 2025; 17(18):8466. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17188466
Chicago/Turabian StyleKalinichenko, Yevgeniy, Sergey Rudenko, Andrii Holovan, Nadiia Vasalatii, Anastasiia Zaiets, Oleksandr Koliesnik, Leonid Oberto Santana, and Nataliia Dolynska. 2025. "Smart Routing for Sustainable Shipping: A Review of Trajectory Optimization Approaches in Waterborne Transport" Sustainability 17, no. 18: 8466. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17188466
APA StyleKalinichenko, Y., Rudenko, S., Holovan, A., Vasalatii, N., Zaiets, A., Koliesnik, O., Santana, L. O., & Dolynska, N. (2025). Smart Routing for Sustainable Shipping: A Review of Trajectory Optimization Approaches in Waterborne Transport. Sustainability, 17(18), 8466. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17188466