Spatial Analysis of CO₂ Shadow Prices and Influencing Factors in China’s Industrial Sector

Reducing emissions through the invisible hand of the market has become an important way to promote sustainable environmental development. The shadow price of carbon dioxide ($C{O}_2$) is the core element of the carbon market, and its accuracy depends on the micro level of the measurement data. In view of this, this paper innovatively uses enterprise level input-output data and combines the stochastic frontier method to obtain $C{O}_2$ shadow prices in China’s industrial sector. On this basis, the impacts of research and development (R&D) intensity, opening up level, traffic development level, population density, industrial structure, urbanization level, human resources level, degree of education, and environmental governance intensity on shadow price are discussed. In further analysis, this study introduces a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to evaluate the spatial spillover effects of $C{O}_2$ shadow price itself and its influencing factors. The research results indicate that market-oriented emission abatement measures across industries and regions can reduce total costs, and it is necessary to consider incorporating carbon tax into low-carbon policies to compensate for the shortcomings of the carbon Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). In addition, neighboring regions should coordinate emission abatement tasks in a unified manner to realize a sustainable reduction in $C{O}_2$ emissions.