Remote Sensing-Based Assessment of Eco-Environmental Quality Dynamics and Driving Forces in the Anhui Section of the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project (2015–2024)

The water source protection areas of the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project (YHWDP) in Anhui Province serve as crucial ecological barriers to water quality protection. Quantifying their eco-environmental quality (EEQ) dynamics and driving mechanisms is critical for sustainable management. This paper calculated the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) for the study area using Landsat satellite data (2015–2024). Temporal and spatial variation characteristics were analyzed using the Theil–Sen estimator, Mann–Kendall test, and coefficient of variation. Future trends were predicted using the Hurst exponent. Finally, the Geodetector model was applied to assess the impact of driving factors. EEQ exhibited a declining trend (p < 0.05), with significant intra-regional heterogeneity. Mean RSEI values ranked as follows: (1) Yangtze River–Huaihe River Connection < Yangtze River Water Northward Conveyance < Yangtze River–Chaohu Lake Water Diversion. (2) From 2015 to 2024, eco-environmental quality improved significantly, showing a spatial pattern of “south > north, east > west.” (3) Overall EEQ changes were characterized by slight to moderate fluctuations. Stability rankings: Yangtze River–Huaihe River Connection > Yangtze River–Chaohu Lake Water Diversion > Yangtze River Water Northward Conveyance. (4) Geodetector analysis identified precipitation, impervious area, and vegetation coverage as the primary factors influencing EEQ in the YHWDP’s water source protection areas. This study reveals ecological changes in the YHWDP region and validates the effectiveness of the comprehensive evaluation method. The findings provide actionable insights for ecological protection in large-scale water diversion projects.