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Article

Bridging the Gap: Forecasting China’s Dual-Carbon Talent Crisis and Strategic Pathways for Higher Education

1
School of Economics and Management, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232000, China
2
Joint National-Local Engineering Research Centre for Safe and Precise Coal Mining, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2025, 17(16), 7190; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17167190
Submission received: 29 May 2025 / Revised: 20 July 2025 / Accepted: 22 July 2025 / Published: 8 August 2025

Abstract

China’s carbon peak and neutrality transition is critically constrained by the severe talent shortage and structural inefficiencies in higher education. This study systematically investigates the current status of “dual-carbon” talent cultivation and demand in China, leveraging annual “dual-carbon” talent cultivation data from universities nationwide. By applying the GM(1,1)-ARIMA hybrid forecasting model, it projects future national “dual-carbon” talent demand. Key findings reveal significant regional disparities in talent cultivation, with a pronounced mismatch between industrial demands and academic supply, particularly in interdisciplinary roles pivotal to decarbonization processes. Forecast results indicate an exponential growth in postgraduate talent demand, outpacing undergraduate demand, thereby underscoring the urgency of advancing high-end technological research and development. Through empirical analysis and innovative modeling, this study uncovers the structural contradictions between “dual-carbon” talent cultivation and market demands in China, providing critical decision-making insights to address the bottleneck of carbon-neutral talent development.
Keywords: dual-carbon talents; status of training; demand for talent; forecasting and analysis; GM(1,1)-ARIMA hybrid model dual-carbon talents; status of training; demand for talent; forecasting and analysis; GM(1,1)-ARIMA hybrid model

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Li, S.; Li, S.; Li, J.; Yuan, L.; Geng, J. Bridging the Gap: Forecasting China’s Dual-Carbon Talent Crisis and Strategic Pathways for Higher Education. Sustainability 2025, 17, 7190. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17167190

AMA Style

Li S, Li S, Li J, Yuan L, Geng J. Bridging the Gap: Forecasting China’s Dual-Carbon Talent Crisis and Strategic Pathways for Higher Education. Sustainability. 2025; 17(16):7190. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17167190

Chicago/Turabian Style

Li, Shanshan, Shoubin Li, Jing Li, Liang Yuan, and Jichao Geng. 2025. "Bridging the Gap: Forecasting China’s Dual-Carbon Talent Crisis and Strategic Pathways for Higher Education" Sustainability 17, no. 16: 7190. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17167190

APA Style

Li, S., Li, S., Li, J., Yuan, L., & Geng, J. (2025). Bridging the Gap: Forecasting China’s Dual-Carbon Talent Crisis and Strategic Pathways for Higher Education. Sustainability, 17(16), 7190. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17167190

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